The Lib Dem vote is collapsing in Tory marginals with swings of up to 13% to Labour. Meanwhile, 70% believe the Government is the same as if Tories governed alone.
Hot on the heels of yesterday’s YouGov analysis that the coalition’s “honeymoon is over” and that Lib Dem support is in free fall, a new poll conducted by Populus for Lord Ashcroft shows swings of up 13 per cent from Lib Dem voters to Labour.
Lord Ashcroft’s analysis of his poll – showing that the Alternative Vote could favour the Conservative party – was highlighted yesterday on Iain Dale’s blog and Conservative Home. A closer reading of the numbers shows more worrying news for Nick Clegg’s party as Labour appears to be the greater beneficiary of Lib Dem deserters in both Labour-Tory marginals and Lib Dem-Tory marginals.
In the 25 most marginal Lib Dem held seats where the Conservative party are in second place, the swing from Lib Dem to Labour is 12.9 per cent. In the 25 most marginal Conservative held seats with Lib Dems in second place, the swing is 11.0 per cent. In both sets of seats more than 50 per cent of voters believe that:
“The Liberal Democrats have had some influence but the government’s agenda is mostly what we’d have had if the Conservatives were in government on their own”
An additional 20 per cent of voters believe that the Lib Dems have had virtually “no influence”. Ashcroft’s findings that these swings will result in the Lib Dems losing 30 seats to the Tories under first-past-the-post (and 19 under AV) would see the party’s parliamentary representation halved.
The swing from Lib Dem to Labour is less pronounced in Tory-Labour marginals averaging 3.6 per cent. But that would still be enough to help Labour gain 28 seats under first-past-the-post (and 16 under AV). The findings are consistent with Tim Horton’s analysis for Left Foot Forward in early May which showed that a “Lib-Con coalition would be an ‘electoral gift’ for Labour“.
UK Polling Report today details that the overnight YouGov poll puts the Lib Dems on 14 per cent nationally – a result that would deliver just 21 Lib Dem MPs, give the Tories a majority of 18, and effectively return Britain to two-party politics.
50 Responses to “Lib Dem vote swings to Labour in Tory marginals”
Chris
@Duncan Scott
Why would centre-left voters support the LibDems? Clegg & Co. aren’t left wing by any stretch of the imagination. There isn’t any great love for the tory party, their current increase in the polls isn’t anything to write home about and when the LibCon economic plan falters their ratings will plummet.
The left should work to split the coalition within the next 18 months because if they don’t the LibCons will have destroyed many of the public services which centre-left voters care about most. If the coalition does last the distance the left will be fucked anyway because the LibCons will be a single party.
Kevin
The condemnation are so full of spin they meet each other coming back their ideas of government by proxy :- tell us what you want to do/change will soon be found out by the electorate when nothing they wish for is achieved unless cameroon and his henchmen said it first.
the greatest number of Ideas for improvement I have seen on the so called government meets the people web sites are for the country to GET OUT OF EUROPE NOW.
something neither party is willing to counternence as it goes against their own wishes there by killing the theory that they are a government for change.
the only thing to have changed is the name on the door of number ten there is still a potential dictator behind it.
I PREDICT A RIOT
Duncan Stott
Chris, your argument doesn’t make sense. You start by saying the Lib Dems aren’t left wing, but then suggest the left should aim to split the coalition. How can the left have any influence on the coalition unless it has a left wing faction? Logically, your argument only stack up if you are suggesting the Tories are left wing!
Will Straw
Thanks for the comments:
I agree with Sunny. We shouldnt read too much into Ashcroft’s analysis of the AV effects (which is why I only mentioned it in passing) but the polling speaks for itself and is consistent with what we already knew: LD voters are deserting their party.
I disagree and agree with Duncan. I don’t think Labour’s attacks on the Lib Dems have been particularly potent (which is hardly surprising since the party is effectively leaderless). Instead I put the declining LD vote down to their voters making their own minds up about the Coalition’s performance. Where I do agree is that the Labour party should work with the Coalition where it is acting in a progressive manner. This blog has long supported the Lib Dem positions on electoral reform, nuclear power, and defence. Unfortunately there is precious little to go on at the moment aside from the AV referendum. Huhne has rolled over on nuclear and the Coalition agreement rolled over on Trident. The list you sent through was just a list of aspirations – not implemented policy. With one or two exceptions I’ll be over the moon if you get through that list but as the graduate tax shenanigans shows this afternoon, in practice the Lib Dems don’t appear to have much clout. No wonder, as my article yesterday, only 40% of Lib Dem voters approve of the Coalition.
I agree with Chris and disagree with Anon. The LDs have always been a coalition and while an electoral pact between Lib Dems and Tories at the next election is highly likely, their voters will not vote uniformly. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a split in the party as those MPs reliant on former Labour voters realise that they need a return to genuinely social democratic policies. As I suggested back in April, Nick Clegg is likely to become his party’s Ramsay Macdonald.
malc peters
More right wing clap trap from billy blofeld, if the Lib dems merged with the tories, it may make the Tories stronger, but proportionally it would make Labour too, and i think you will find that more than half of Lib dems could never stomach being part of a Tory party, remember the Lib dems were concieved from the old Liberals and people that were disillusioned with the Labour party,instead of forming a new party, they could have just joined the conservatives,why didnt they?Believe me this mix match of a coalition WILL NEVER BE ONE PARTY