The Lib Dem vote is collapsing in Tory marginals with swings of up to 13% to Labour. Meanwhile, 70% believe the Government is the same as if Tories governed alone.
Hot on the heels of yesterday’s YouGov analysis that the coalition’s “honeymoon is over” and that Lib Dem support is in free fall, a new poll conducted by Populus for Lord Ashcroft shows swings of up 13 per cent from Lib Dem voters to Labour.
Lord Ashcroft’s analysis of his poll – showing that the Alternative Vote could favour the Conservative party – was highlighted yesterday on Iain Dale’s blog and Conservative Home. A closer reading of the numbers shows more worrying news for Nick Clegg’s party as Labour appears to be the greater beneficiary of Lib Dem deserters in both Labour-Tory marginals and Lib Dem-Tory marginals.
In the 25 most marginal Lib Dem held seats where the Conservative party are in second place, the swing from Lib Dem to Labour is 12.9 per cent. In the 25 most marginal Conservative held seats with Lib Dems in second place, the swing is 11.0 per cent. In both sets of seats more than 50 per cent of voters believe that:
“The Liberal Democrats have had some influence but the government’s agenda is mostly what we’d have had if the Conservatives were in government on their own”
An additional 20 per cent of voters believe that the Lib Dems have had virtually “no influence”. Ashcroft’s findings that these swings will result in the Lib Dems losing 30 seats to the Tories under first-past-the-post (and 19 under AV) would see the party’s parliamentary representation halved.
The swing from Lib Dem to Labour is less pronounced in Tory-Labour marginals averaging 3.6 per cent. But that would still be enough to help Labour gain 28 seats under first-past-the-post (and 16 under AV). The findings are consistent with Tim Horton’s analysis for Left Foot Forward in early May which showed that a “Lib-Con coalition would be an ‘electoral gift’ for Labour“.
UK Polling Report today details that the overnight YouGov poll puts the Lib Dems on 14 per cent nationally – a result that would deliver just 21 Lib Dem MPs, give the Tories a majority of 18, and effectively return Britain to two-party politics.
50 Responses to “Lib Dem vote swings to Labour in Tory marginals”
Dave Wilshire
RT @leftfootfwd: Lib Dem vote collapses in Tory marginals – 70% believe Gov same as if Tories governed alone http://bit.ly/9JWWKC
Rachel Hardy
Lib Dem vote collapses in Tory marginals | Left Foot Forward http://goo.gl/bL8c
Anon E Mouse
Alan W – Lib Dem voters are not fools – they can affect change and people’s lives.
As soon as their policies start coming in, for example ridding the country of Labour’s surveillance state, Lib dem voters will be back on board.
I’d rather be Nick Clegg at his party conference than Gordon Brown at his….
Duncan Stott
Textbook Labour spin from Alan W. For balance, I’ll link to textbook Lib Dem counter-spin, that shows that the Lib Dems are a real influence in the coalition:
http://www.libdemvoice.org/what-the-lib-dems-have-achieved-in-the-coalition-government-20386.html
But this isn’t the argument I’m trying to get into. Alan W’s suggestion that the Left abandons this government is counter-productive. He is suggesting either breaking the coalition, up breaking the Lib Dems. The first will trigger an election with a resultant Tory majority govt, the second will send us back to two party politics… that may be good for the Labour Party, but it is not good for the much broader Left.
Like it or not, the coalition is what we have. The options for the Left over the next five years are constructively support the Lib Dems, or attack the Lib Dems and allow the right-wing of the coalition a free ride.
I can appreciate this is a hard decision for the left-wing who remain loyal to Labour. It means abandoning party politics for five years. But I would question why you get involved with Labour in the first place: are Labour a means to an end, or an end itself? That’s a question I can’t answer for you.
Chris
@Anon
LOL, that is some strong shit your smoking!!!
Firstly, many tory voters are to the right of Cameron and loathe the EU. Even if tory high command says vote LibDem as second pref a lot of tories will want to vote UKIP to send a message. And won’t want to support the *pro-EU* LibDems.
While nobody has any real clue what will happen under AV, the majority of LibDem voters identify as centre-left so just because the Cleggron commands doesn’t mean they’ll vote that way. I can’t stop laughing at your characterisation of social liberals as mere protest voters, I thought the LibDems weren’t tribal in nature? Do you believe that centre-left LibDems should betray their principles and support the party no matter how far Clegg takes them to the right.
Yawn, so a quick photo op of Cameron walking down the street is enough to make you happy – you must have some real deeply held convictions… What about cabinet ministers taking trains? Bet you liked that idea and you’ll even defend their red box going in the chauffeur driven car.