The Lib Dem vote is collapsing in Tory marginals with swings of up to 13% to Labour. Meanwhile, 70% believe the Government is the same as if Tories governed alone.
Hot on the heels of yesterday’s YouGov analysis that the coalition’s “honeymoon is over” and that Lib Dem support is in free fall, a new poll conducted by Populus for Lord Ashcroft shows swings of up 13 per cent from Lib Dem voters to Labour.
Lord Ashcroft’s analysis of his poll – showing that the Alternative Vote could favour the Conservative party – was highlighted yesterday on Iain Dale’s blog and Conservative Home. A closer reading of the numbers shows more worrying news for Nick Clegg’s party as Labour appears to be the greater beneficiary of Lib Dem deserters in both Labour-Tory marginals and Lib Dem-Tory marginals.
In the 25 most marginal Lib Dem held seats where the Conservative party are in second place, the swing from Lib Dem to Labour is 12.9 per cent. In the 25 most marginal Conservative held seats with Lib Dems in second place, the swing is 11.0 per cent. In both sets of seats more than 50 per cent of voters believe that:
“The Liberal Democrats have had some influence but the government’s agenda is mostly what we’d have had if the Conservatives were in government on their own”
An additional 20 per cent of voters believe that the Lib Dems have had virtually “no influence”. Ashcroft’s findings that these swings will result in the Lib Dems losing 30 seats to the Tories under first-past-the-post (and 19 under AV) would see the party’s parliamentary representation halved.
The swing from Lib Dem to Labour is less pronounced in Tory-Labour marginals averaging 3.6 per cent. But that would still be enough to help Labour gain 28 seats under first-past-the-post (and 16 under AV). The findings are consistent with Tim Horton’s analysis for Left Foot Forward in early May which showed that a “Lib-Con coalition would be an ‘electoral gift’ for Labour“.
UK Polling Report today details that the overnight YouGov poll puts the Lib Dems on 14 per cent nationally – a result that would deliver just 21 Lib Dem MPs, give the Tories a majority of 18, and effectively return Britain to two-party politics.
50 Responses to “Lib Dem vote swings to Labour in Tory marginals”
Billy Blofeld
If Optimus-Clegg really wanted to – he could destroy Labour as a party of government by merging with The Tories.
He just has to eject his left wing head bangers, whom Labour will mop up, which will further help the ConDem party boss the middle ground of British politics.
Presumably Left Foot Forwards would welcome the permanent influence of Progressives in Government?
Anon E Mouse
Will – This is far too premature to draw your conclusions – it’s wishful thinking on your part I’m afraid. AV will destroy the Labour Party when the coalition does well.
Lib Dems who claim they will vote Labour with it’s big business, hurt the poor, big state control freak agenda are not Lib Dems – they are simply protest voters.
When the coalition does well with the economy (and every single sensible financial advisor says their approach is correct) and the soldiers are home before the election the feel good factor will swing into action.
People like me who cannot believe how relaxed the whole of government has become – just seeing ministers walking to Downing Street compared to the last bunch with their chauffeur driven black cars and men with earpieces is a breath of fresh air.
Next election Cameron will tell Conservatives to vote Lib Dem second pref and vice versa the Lib Dems. Labour will look like a big state party and not credible.
Voters are fickle but anyone who actually believes that once the more unpleasant aspects of the last government are undone by the Lib Dems in Cleggs “Freedom Bill” won’t vote for the person who freed them is bonkers…
Alan W
Duncan Stott – I think you overestimate the potency of Labour’s attacks. The Lib-Dems loss of support is first and foremost down to their own actions.
I’ll venture that most of the former Lib-Dems switching their support to Labour are doing so because they can see that Clegg and Co have sold their party cheap to the Tories. In return for a few second tier ministerial jobs and a referendum on an electoral system they don’t even want, they’ve swallowed the most unremittingly right-wing economic agenda of any British government since before the war. This is precisely one of those “spells of unhinged Conservative rule” of which you write, only this one is being delivered with Lib-Dem votes.
If as you say “the Left” has allies in this government, they need to wake up and realise that no-one with even vaguely centre-left sympathies can in conscience support this government. And if they can’t persuade their party to walk away from it, then they need to bail out on their own.
Jim Stanbury
2 articles, poss glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel. 1 surprisingly from Telegraph http://bit.ly/9JWWKC & http://tinyurl.com/2uwtx8d
Mark W Webster
@fionalaird https://www.leftfootforward.org/2010/07/lib-dem-vote-swings-to-labour-in-tory-marginals/