With a date now set for a referendum on switching the electoral system to the Alternative Vote, a debate will no doubt rage inside both the Labour and Conservative parties as to how they should campaign.
With a date now set for a referendum on switching the electoral system to the Alternative Vote, a debate will no doubt rage inside both the Labour and Conservative parties as to how they should campaign. Labour MPs and activists, regardless of their views on proportional representation, should support a “Yes” vote for three simple reasons.
First, the Alternative Vote is an intrinsically fairer system that first-past-the-post. Under Britain’s current electoral system only 33 per cent of MPs were elected with a clear majority (50%+1) of support in their constituencies – the lowest ever proportion. AV ensures that every MP would have this legitimacy by reallocating second preferences. But the system only changes the way votes are cast and counted meaning that any concerns about how some electoral systems remove the constituency link are not relevant.
Second, the Alternative Vote is popular while first-past-the-post is unpopular. A recent poll by ComRes for the Independent showed that 78 per cent of voters believe the current electoral system should be replaced while 56 per cent would back a switch to the AV system.
Third, the Alternative Vote is likely to help Labour at the expense of the Conservatives. Post-election research by US pollster Stanley Greenberg showed that 37 per cent of Lib Dem voters wanted a Labour-Lib Dem coalition compared to 29 per cent who supported a Tory-Lib Dem coalition, a further 21 per cent wanted a Unity government. Since the election, the Lib Dem vote has collapsed to 16 per cent – twice as many of these switchers have turned to Labour compared to the Tories. A projection by the Electoral Reform Society of the 2010 election outcome under the Alternative Vote showed the Tories on 281 (-26), Labour on 262 (+4), and Lib Dems (+22).
One final reason is that the Labour party already uses AV for the selection of its own leader. If it’s good enough for the party, it should be good enough for the country.
UPDATE 12.06:
Ed Miliband has put out the following statement:
“I strongly support the case for introducing the Alternative Vote, to ensure greater fairness for voters and greater legitimacy for our MPs in Westminster. Whenever the referendum takes place, I will campaign with other supporters across the political spectrum for this important change.”
Earlier today, David Miliband told Today listeners:
“I think that it’s important that we move to a system where every Member of Parliament has at least 50 per cent of the vote of their constituents.”
33 Responses to “Labour should support a “Yes” vote on AV”
cim
Okay, there’s now some second-preference polling out. Based on what details there are, and assuming UNS and Uniform Transfers, if the Lib Dem voters split 39/27 Con/Lab, and the UKPR polling average is correct, the result for the English seats under current boundaries would be approximately:
Party: Seats won (portion of Seat change from AV) (portion of Seat change from UNS)
Conservative: 390 (+76) (+18)
Labour : 119 (-88) (+16)
Lib Dem : 22 (+12) (-33)
Others : 0 (0) (-1)
The Conservatives do far better out of AV than anyone else in that scenario. Of course, the assumptions made are not necessarily accurate, and the polling has several years to change.
Mr. Sensible: I think it’s very rare that AV – rather than a PR system – would cause a coalition government when FPTP wouldn’t. 1992 and 2010 are the only recent elections where AV would probably have given no party an overall majority (and of course in 2010 that happened anyway, and in 1992 the Tory majority had disappeared by the end, so probably not much change there)
Will Straw
cim – Interesting polling. These numbers are, of course, largely meaningless since we are nearly five years from the next general election. Those figures reflect current Lib Dem happiness with the coalition (more are supportive than negative). If we move to a system of AV it will essentially reflect the public’s happiness or otherwise with the coalition (particularly with LD voters). If you are a LD voter and want to retain the coalition, you’ll give your second pref to a Tory; if you want to end it, you will vote Labour. Labour’s challenge is to (a) look like a credible government in waiting, and (b) persuade LD voters to cast their second preference with Labour as a means of bringing down the Coalition.
Mr Sensible – I’m afraid cim is right on the hung parliament point. AV can end up being less proportional than FPTP (eg in 1997 it would have increased Labour and LDs seats at the expense of Conservatives).
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cim
Those figures reflect current Lib Dem happiness with the coalition
I don’t know if that’s true. Lib Dem support has fallen 6 points since the election. If that was mostly from the most Labour-leaning Lib Dems (based on pre-election second preference polling) going to Labour or others, then it’s just about possible that none of the remaining LD voters have changed their mind at all.
If you are a LD voter and want to retain the coalition, you’ll give your second pref to a Tory; if you want to end it, you will vote Labour.
Not so sure about this. On the current polling – which I agree is largely meaningless – the Conservatives could get a substantial outright majority of 100 seats or more if LDs favoured them for 2nd prefs, which would definitely bring down the coalition… Reversing the balance of 2nd preferences gives Labour a substantial English plurality (despite them being around 8 points behind on first preferences) though probably not quite enough for a majority government, and the few remaining Lib Dems might be able to stay in power.
Labour’s challenge is to (a) look like a credible government in waiting, and (b) persuade LD voters to cast their second preference with Labour as a means of bringing down the Coalition.
Totally agreed here.
AV can end up being less proportional than FPTP
I believe 1997 is the only example of this for quite some time, though. It’s not designed as a proportional system, but it is relatively rare in a UK context that it would do worse than FPTP. It can magnify a genuine “anyone but X” landslide, though.
Tom
What a shame then that (the Guardian reports)
Jack Straw – widely regarded as the UK leading Conservative –
is attempting to bloc a referendum. Jack Straw really is a nasty peice of work.
Really Labour should be supporting AV as a move towards the Single Transferable Vote system. Why is it that equality goes out the window when Labour looks at votings systems? One vote, one value as the Chartists put it, or one vote, only valuable if your a swing voter in a marginal seat as new Labour puts it.