Migration Watch are plain wrong to suggest that the introduction of the Points-Based System for managing immigration has led to an increase in the number of economic migrants entering the UK.
Migration Watch are plain wrong to suggest that the introduction of the Points-Based System for managing immigration has led to an increase in the number of economic migrants entering the UK. A number of papers – including the Daily Mail – report the publication of a Migration Watch briefing that purports to show that migration to the UK from outside the EU for work has increased by 20 per cent since the introduction of the Points-Based System in 2008.
But this claim is false. In fact, the Home Office statistics that Migration Watch cite show that the total number of visas issued through the parts of the Points-Based System that deal with migration for work (Tiers 1 and 2) was 97,280 in 2009 (including dependents). This is 15 per cent fewer than the 114,850 visas issued (including dependents) in 2007 through the Work Permit and Highly Skilled Migrant routes that the PBS replaced. This downward trend is continuing – visas (including dependents) granted through Tiers 1 and 2 were down 15 per cent in the first quarter of 2010 compared to the first quarter of 2009.
Migration Watch can claim an ‘increase’ in economic migration from outside the EU only by including in their figures not only new arrivals but also extensions of leave to remain for those who have already come to the UK through Tier 1 and 2 or predecessor schemes in previous years. It is misleading to describe this as immigration. It is also difficult to compare these numbers over time – changes in the immigration rules can mean that more or fewer people need to apply for extensions in any given year, regardless of the underlying levels of immigration (individuals can also make more than one application for extension in a year, so there is some double counting).
In fact, it seems likely that the change to the Points-Based system in 2008 might well explain part of the increase in the number of extensions issued between 2007 and 2009 as people already in the UK ‘transitioned’ from one scheme to another. The increase is also in part a lagged result of high levels of immigration for work before 2007 (well before the introduction of the PBS). That there is no upward trend in these grants of extension is borne out by more recent figures showing that employment-related grants of an extension of leave to remain fell by 15 per cent from 122,105 in the year to March 2008 to 103,500 in the year to March 2009.
Migration Watch are right when they claim that there was a significant increase in the number of student visas issued between 2007 and 2009 (and indeed student numbers continue to rise). However, it is wrong to infer from this that the introduction of the PBS for managing student immigration has meant a loosening of the rules. While there is no doubt some abuse of the student visa regime, the introduction of the PBS (and further changes planned by the last government) mean that the system is being significantly tightened up.
The increase in the numbers of foreign students in the UK is a reflection of a range of other factors, not least the success of the UK higher education sector and the weakening of sterling (which has made study in the UK more affordable). It is also important to note that student visas do not confer a right to settle in the UK, and that most student migration is temporary – increases in student migration have only a limited impact on the long-term rate of net migration to the UK.
Migration Watch are desperate to show that immigration is increasing in order to pressure the Government into imposing restrictions on immigration that could damage the UK economy and public services.
In fact, net immigration to the UK (the surplus of people immigrating over people emigrating) in the year to September 2009 was 11 per cent lower than in the year to September 2008. Declining net emigration by British citizens included in the total figure disguises an even more dramatic fall in net non-British immigration, which was down almost 27 per cent in the year to September 2009 compared to the year to 2008. Net migration from the EU fell by a massive 66 per cent in this period, but net migration from outside the EU is also falling – down 10 per cent in the year to September 2009 compared with the year to September 2008.
David Cameron has said repeatedly that he wants annual net immigration down to ‘tens of thousands, rather than hundreds of thousands’. The economic crisis, the natural cycles of migration flows and the tougher polices of the last government have already turned the tide – and at this rate we will see net immigration fall below 100,000 without the introduction for the much trumpeted cap on immigration.
• Ippr yesterday published a full briefing which analyses last week’s migration statistics.
43 Responses to “More misleading claims about migration”
Duncan Stott
For the avoidance of doubt, I was indeed suggesting that there could be a racist motive towards Migration Watch releasing deliberately misleading statistics about immigration. But feel free to suggest other suggestions for what their motive is.
Peddling lies about immigration is racist. Like you say, Tracy J, it’s easier just to say what you see.
Colin Runeckles
I tried to get comments posted on the DM article about this double counting three times before one was allowed through…only after the article was moved from the front page in mid-afternoon. My post was timed at 12:02. They don’t like people pointing out the inconvenient truth…
Anon E Mouse
Duncan Stott – You may see peddling lies about immigration as being racist but the majority opinion in this country certainly doesn’t. Since the majority of immigration is from the EU and the majority of peoples in the EU coming here are Polish (we are told) then how can it be racist since they are the same race as us?
Looking over your blog I particularly like the “Alun Johnson is a hypocrite” bit (although Labour Party supporters being hypocrites is hardly news) but on what basis is Migration Watch being racist?
Alarmist maybe but racist I think not. It’s 2010 Duncan. Who cares about race anymore?
Duncan Stott
The Migration Watch report isn’t about EU immigration. It is about the points-based system that is used for non-EU immigration. By the way, the latest figures show more Eastern European migrants are leaving the UK than arriving. The transitional controls adopted by many other EU countries to avoid a sudden wave of Eastern European immigration expire next year, which can only serve to further depress the net number of Eastern Europeans migrants in the UK.
I don’t think alarmist is the right word. To me that suggests an over-the-top reaction to a genuine story. There’s plenty of that around the immigration ‘debate’ too, but I’d never call that racist. But this Migration Watch report isn’t a genuine story. They’ve fiddled the numbers to mislead the public about the scale of immigration.
Who cares about race these days? Well, the BNP got 563,743 votes at the general election, compared to 192,745 in 2005. So, over a five year period, the BNP have managed to nearly treble their vote. One caveat: they did stand candidates in more constituencies. But I don’t think we can ignore them, or ignore the sources of that feed their narrative. Yep, this Migration Watch report is today on the front page of the BNP website, as usual.
tracy j
as for who cares about race, the BNP appear to be about ‘Britishness’ whatever that is, so even they don’t seem to be bothered by race