Left Foot Forward has long argued that Britain has a progressive majority.
After Gordon Brown’s resignation yesterday, the possibility of a “progressive coalition government” is back on the cards. Formal negotiations between Labour and Lib Dem are now taking place, the Green party appear to be supportive, and so do the Scottish and Welsh nationalists. But if it comes to pass, how should it govern in the national interest? And what alternatives are there for progressive collaboration?
Left Foot Forward has long argued that Britain has a progressive majority. Paradoxically by winning a bigger than expected majority in 1997, new Labour failed to take its opportunity to realign British politics. But there is now an opportunity for that realignment to take place.
Although 56 per cent of Brits voted for progressive parties in last Thursday’s election, the parliamentary arithmetic is tight. Since Sinn Fein will not take their parliamentary seats, a threshold of 323 rather than 326 is required for a governing majority. Labour plus Lib Dem delivers 315. They would therefore need to rely on the support of some combination of SNP (6 seats), Plaid Cymru (3), SDLP (3), the Alliance party (1), and Green party (1) to reach a majority. It might look unstable but as Polly Toynbee notes, “It would be in none of their like-minded interests to bring down this coalition government.”
So what should a rainbow coalition government do in practice?
1. Focus on the two key objectives: (1) a Comprehensive Spending Review that focuses on securing the recovery, sustains public spending in 2010-11, and protects the most vulnerable from the necessary cuts and tax rises after 2011; and (2) a Great Reform Act including a referendum on electoral reform (giving the public a choice of options), fixed term parliaments, a fully elected House of Lords, and a new approach to localism.
2. It should be time limited (perhaps to two years) with a clear commitment that parliament will be dissolved once the electoral reform referendum passes or falls.
3. It should make clear that necessary spending cuts after 2011 will fall fairly across the UK.
All that said, the choreography and compromise required could bring the whole house rapidly crashing down and end in a vote of no confidence, subsequent election, and punishment at the polls with the Tories gaining the 2 per cent swing needed for an overall majority. A number of Labour figures including John Reid, David Blunkett, and Tom Harris have already been clear about the resistance inside the Parliamentary Labour Party.
An alternative way ahead for progressives is this:
1. The Liberal Democrats offer the Conservative party “supply and confidence” on certain legislative measures contained in both manifestos such as schools’ reform, localism, and measures to address climate change. Nonetheless, they turn down seats in the Cabinet due to fundamental philosophical differences over economic policy (Keynesianism vs. laissez faire) and foreign policy (multilateralism vs. isolationism).
2. Labour elects a new leader by conference Labour engages constructively and seeks to amend legislation rather than acting as a systematic block.
3. Labour, Liberal Democrats, and smaller parties present a united front during the Emergency Budget opposing all additional cuts in 2010-11, the cut in the planned rise in National Insurance, and seek the protection of key front-line public services.
4. At the point that David Cameron overplays his hand (perhaps with legislation on an immigration cap), all progressive parties join forces to provoke a vote of no confidence and a second election. Progressive parties include in their manifestos a commitment to a referendum on electoral reform if re-elected.
5. Labour announces that it will stand aside in 60 Tory-Lib Dem marginal seats. In return, the Liberal Democrats announce that they will give Labour a free run in 30 seats where they are in third place or below.
24 Responses to “A rainbow coalition?”
Rupert Read
Thanks Will; interesting stuff.
Yes – the awful threat looming if we do not get a #progressivemajority government is that of a snap election in which Tory cash – and #Caschcroft in particular – will overwhelm us all.
If there is to be a ‘rainbow alliance’ of some kind as you have sketched, then it needs to get some positive response from Labour SOON. Why are Labour being so hostile about the smaller Parties at present?
Billy Blofeld
So England is to be shackled by the Scottish, Welsh, a lady in Brighton and the voters in some urban areas in the North West……..
I’ve never felt the urge for an English parliament before – I do now. Gordon’s abortion-coalition has tipped me over the edge. Break up the union. I want out.
Tom Scott
Like most commentators, you’ve forgotten that the SDLP is actually the Labour’s sister party in northern Ireland. They have three MPs and will, as in past Parliaments, take the Labour whip. This would bring the Lab-LibDem total to 318, only 5 short of the total needed for a majority in the Commons.
If Labour fails to grasp this opportunity and lets the Tories in, this could be a disaster. The Cons will enjoy a honeymoon period, and call a snap election when the polls look good. The Tories could be back with a working majority, and Labour could be out of power for a generation or more.
ciphergoth
Another problem with http://bit.ly/ctFp58 : by the time the vote of no confidence comes, Labour could be strong enough to go it alone.
BenM
Gotta love the way Billy Blowers and Tories like him use the union as a means of expediency then as soon as they don’t get their way, storm off in a spectacular huff!
Billy ought to remember that the combined Lib Lab vote share last Thursday in England too was 52%. No joy there for English nationalists unfortunately.