Recent polls show steady dwindling of Tory lead

The latest opinion poll this morning showed the Tory lead down to ten points. It follows last week’s Observer poll which gave David Cameron only a six-pont lead

Today’s ComRes poll in the Independent shows Labour closing the gap on the Conservatives to just ten points – the lowest in this series for six months. It follows the Observer poll nine days ago that gave the Tories only a six point lead over Labour.

Since the European elections, where both main parties were hit badly by the expenses scandal and the performance of UKIP, ComRes have Labour steadily increasing, with the Conservatives only fleetingly breaking through the 40-point ceiling and now down in the mid-to-high 30s. Key, though, is the dwindling Tory lead, which may cause worries at Conservative HQ, with most experts calculating David Cameron’s need for at least a ten-point lead to be assured of victory.

UK Polling Report has more on the narrowing Tory lead; they say:

“The Conservatives’ level of support has fallen to around 39%. Of the ten polls this month, 7 have put them below forty, when every single poll in October had them at 40 or above, so it’s pretty clear they have dropped slightly (though to put this in context, they were polls showing them below 40 in September and almost all of of June).”

Among other notable results are the almost complete collapse in the BNP vote – just nine of the 1,003 people polled say they would definitely vote for the BNP if a General Election were held tomorrow – and the worryingly high number of voters who say they won’t vote at all, up three percentage points from mid-November to 17 per cent.

16 Responses to “Recent polls show steady dwindling of Tory lead”

  1. James Cowley

    RT @leftfootfwd: Recent polls show steady dwindling of Tory lead: http://is.gd/598FD

  2. James Cowley

    RT @leftfootfwd: Recent polls show steady dwindling of Tory lead: http://is.gd/598FD

  3. Shamik Das

    RT @leftfootfwd: Recent polls show steady dwindling of Tory lead: http://is.gd/598FD <— Looking better, but still a way to go

  4. Shamik Das

    RT @leftfootfwd: Recent polls show steady dwindling of Tory lead: http://is.gd/598FD <— Looking better, but still a way to go

  5. Henry

    …though, to make a cheap point, why bother to vote if, like me, you live in the 70% or so ‘safe’ seats? Yet another reason why the current electoral system is a farce.

  6. Shamik Das

    Spot on! I read somewhere that the next election will be decided by about only 300-400,000 swing voters in less than 100 marginal constituencies. Doesn’t seem right to me either!

  7. bbJ

    Why is it you have stopped the comments on the Guido piece, just like your beloved Liebor party you are hopeless.

  8. Merchant Banker

    Shamik, you are a vain hopeless twat

  9. Billy's Big Fan

    What is hilarious is Billy Blofelds view. I wonder if Will and Shamik, could answer the points raised? It put a thousand on no chance.

    “The current crop of junior Labour activists are starting to really get on my tits.

    Are they too young to realise that the Labour Party have monumentally cocked up over the last 12 years?

    Have they not noticed the illegal war?

    Have they not noticed that the economy has been driven into the dirt?

    Have they not noticed that we now live in an authoritarian Stasi like world?

    Have they not noticed that the tax take has doubled without any corresponding improvement in services?

    Have they not noticed that the poor have got poorer and that the long term unemployed are still out of work in equal numbers?

    These young Labour activists are blindly supporting Labour – “cos it is their football team”. They will attack anyone or anything that points out that the last 12 years have been an unbelievable cluster-fuck. Will Straw is the latest with a factually incorrect attempt to rubbish Guido’s article on Britain being the only G20 country still in recession.

    Will has had the decency to pull the “Guido dunce image”, but he is too cowardly to allow comments against his original article.

    “Left Foot Forward believes in evidence and we’re happy to concede when someone else has better evidence than we do. It turns out that Guido was more up-to-date so we’re happy to eat a little humble pie (and remove the ‘D’). Comments are closed on this post.”

    If I can’t comment on Will’s original blog anymore – then I shall use my own blog to point out that his unquestioning tribal support for the Labour Party is not “evidence based”. Look at the mess the country is in.”

  10. Tom Sheppard

    Recent polls show steady dwindling of Tory lead http://tinyurl.com/ygl8er5 <- @nigelsheppard looking forward to that meal I'm going to win!

  11. Tom Sheppard

    Recent polls show steady dwindling of Tory lead http://tinyurl.com/ygl8er5 <- @nigelsheppard looking forward to that meal I'm going to win!

  12. simon

    the hysteria surrounding a few recent polls has really gripped Labour, hasn’t it?

    Shamik, were you making the same protestations when Bliar was winning your party huge landlsides?

  13. Shamik Das

    Simon, that’s an interesting point, comparing Tony 94-97 with DC 07-10 – I think you’ll find Labour were polling closer to 50 than 40 per cent during that period.

  14. blingmun

    Don’t get too excited about the relative decline of the Tories. People still detest Labour and the political class in general with a passion. They just detest the Tories a bit more than they did a month ago because like the other main parties they too have betrayed the people over the Constitution, sorry, Lisbon Treaty.

    Both Tories and Labour backed the war in Iraq. All major parties buy the climate scam and all reneged on Lisbon. We have no real choice to how we are governed thanks to the EU and a corruption of public discourse courtesy of Ne Labour’s lies and steady erosion of the democratic fabric in this country. The British political establishment has abused its custodianship and hence its right to govern. It has very little democratic legitimacy remaining and what’s left is being steadily dismantled in favour of the EU.

    John Locke inspired the American colonists to use force when he argued that a people has the right to remove by force a government that it cannot remove by any other means. As the enormity of the economic calamity becomes evident in people’s daily lives (thanks to Gordon Brown, the country is bankrupt), the illegitimacy, corruption and deceitfulness of our political elite will become ever more unbearable.

    Wise heads will explore legal and political means until all avenues have been exhausted but both the mob and the best enlightened minds in this country will become openly revolutionary over the next few years. I say this because I see no sign that any of the main political parties reform themselves, nor can Parliament and, given the de facto consensus re Lisbon, there is no mena of extricating the country from the EU.

    I fear we live in interesting times.

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