Recent polls show steady dwindling of Tory lead

The latest opinion poll this morning showed the Tory lead down to ten points. It follows last week’s Observer poll which gave David Cameron only a six-pont lead

Today’s ComRes poll in the Independent shows Labour closing the gap on the Conservatives to just ten points – the lowest in this series for six months. It follows the Observer poll nine days ago that gave the Tories only a six point lead over Labour.

Since the European elections, where both main parties were hit badly by the expenses scandal and the performance of UKIP, ComRes have Labour steadily increasing, with the Conservatives only fleetingly breaking through the 40-point ceiling and now down in the mid-to-high 30s. Key, though, is the dwindling Tory lead, which may cause worries at Conservative HQ, with most experts calculating David Cameron’s need for at least a ten-point lead to be assured of victory.

UK Polling Report has more on the narrowing Tory lead; they say:

“The Conservatives’ level of support has fallen to around 39%. Of the ten polls this month, 7 have put them below forty, when every single poll in October had them at 40 or above, so it’s pretty clear they have dropped slightly (though to put this in context, they were polls showing them below 40 in September and almost all of of June).”

Among other notable results are the almost complete collapse in the BNP vote – just nine of the 1,003 people polled say they would definitely vote for the BNP if a General Election were held tomorrow – and the worryingly high number of voters who say they won’t vote at all, up three percentage points from mid-November to 17 per cent.

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