Conservative lead on the slide

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The Conservative party's lead has slipped from 19 per cent in October to 9 per cent.

Tim Montgomerie has just posted a rumour about the Conservative dwindling lead in the polls:

“According to a source inside The Guardian the Conservative lead in tomorrow’s ICM poll is down by 2% (since the recent Sunday Telegraph/ ICM poll) to 9%.

“This is in line with The Sunday Times’ YouGov poll which also showed a surprising narrowing of the Conservative advantage.”

This chart shows the Conservative lead in every ICM poll since August using data from UK polling report and includes the 9 per cent figure. It won’t make happy viewing for CCHQ.

21 Responses to “Conservative lead on the slide”

  1. AP

    Let’s hope people are seeing sense and voting Green, rather than sticking to the Lib-Lab-Con-no-hope-of-change vote.

  2. Cogito Dexter

    Comres have the Tories way out ahead at 17% in the lead, as published yesterday. And Comres were, if I remember correctly, most accurate prior to the last General Election.

    While it’s true to say the polls are variable, it’s not possible to say the Tory lead is *consistently* shrinking across the board. There must, therefore, be something wrong with some of the statistics and/or the questions answered to get this variety… I tend towards averaging the leads out over all the polling organisations, which then means the Tories have a lead of somewhere around 12-14%.

  3. Margaret Young

    All to play for and time for anyone who cares about this country and our first class health and education service to attack, attack and attack again the high priest of privilege, Shameron and his weedy sidekick Gideon Osborne.

  4. Swagata

    Where’s the first class health Margaret? The evidence shows adult life expectancy, infant mortality, hospital infection and cancer survival rates all place the average Briton in a worse position than the average West European. In some places in Scotland life expectancy is below the Pakistani or Palestinian average. We’ve got a very long way to go.

    But maybe you go private Margaret, just like Gordon Brown does?

  5. Richard Blogger

    Swagata, your figures on cancer survival rates are interesting. The reason is that only the UK and a few Scandinavian countries keep complete figures. All other countries have incomplete figures, Germany, for example, has 1% of the figures that we have yet their population is half as much more.

    Compare like with like? Of course not, not when there is a political point to be made! Basically, until the rest of the world catch up with the recording rates that we have in the UK you cannot make any comparison. Or would you prefer that we picked the best 1% of our results to compare with Germany’s?

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