If Brexit was a victory for working people, why is the National Living Wage being revised down?

The Resolution Foundation predicts the wage will be 10p lower than expected in 2017

 

Nigel Farage called Brexit ‘a victory for ordinary, decent people’, while Theresa May says it was a rejection of a world ‘that works well for a privileged few’ but not for the millions left behind in Britain.

So how do they explain away today’s projection that slower wage growth post-Brexit will drag down the National Living Wage (NLW), costing low-paid workers up to £780 per year by 2020?

New analysis published today by the Resolution Foundation projects that the new NLW, which will take effect in April, will be 10p lower than previously predicted as a result of weaker pay outlook post-Brexit.

The longer-term forecast has also suffered. In March the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that the NLW would hit nine pounds by the end of the parliament. Now the Resolution Foundation is projecting it will reach £8.60.

Policy analyst Conor D’Arcy commented:

“While there is much uncertainty over Britain’s long-term economic outlook, most economists agree that wage growth in the next few years is likely to be weaker than expected prior to the referendum. That means we’re unlikely to see the £9 National Living Wage that George Osborne talked about in this parliament.”

The NLW is set in accordance with median pay across the economy, so as wages generally stagnate, it will suffer too. Next year’s rate will be announced around the time of the Autumn Statement.

So Theresa May and Philip Hammond have about a month to come up with an explanation of why the lowest-paid workers — the ones they so often profess to putting first — are already taking a hit under their government.

5 Responses to “If Brexit was a victory for working people, why is the National Living Wage being revised down?”

  1. Michael WALKER

    “New analysis published today by the Resolution Foundation projects that the new NLW, which will take effect in April, will be 10p lower than previously predicted as a result of weaker pay outlook post-Brexit.

    “So Theresa May and Philip Hammond have about a month to come up with an explanation of why the lowest-paid workers — the ones they so often profess to putting first — are already taking a hit under their government.”

    A forecast of what might happen does not mean “are already taking a hit “.

  2. If Brexit was a victory for working people, why is the National Living Wage being revised down? | Left Foot Forward | Vox Political

    […] Source: If Brexit was a victory for working people, why is the National Living Wage being revised down? | Le… […]

  3. CR

    More remoaner nonsense.

    The longterm prospects for the British economy outside the restrictions of the EU are huge.

  4. James Kemp

    More CR pro-Tory message. Why are you on a left website? You don’t like Labour so why, pop up every day and post this stuff are you paid to do this I wonder…

    Oh, and long turn doesn’t pay the bills this year. From the Brexit crew I see it’s wonderful future comments but how we get there the devil is in the detail and lacking transparency!

  5. ted francis

    CR, you really are talking pie-in-the-sky, wishful-thinking, conjectural rubbish. With the probability that this country would be forced into total, isolated, singular self-reliability by departure out of the EU, apart from the obvious, even the world’s economists would not dream of predicting long term prospects for the UK economy.
    Even if what you posit had substance, what is certain is that the much abused “ordinary people” are in for a hard time in the short and medium term.
    Wake up man. What do you think the cataclysmic plummeting pound is all about…..and that’s an almost instant consequence to merely talking about Brexit.
    If you have so much confidence in that crystal ball of yours, do you fancy giving me next year’s Derby winner?

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