Vote Leave and UKIP would keep 85 per cent of net migration as it is

Skilled workers and students count for a large proportion of net migration

immigration infograph

 

With the horrifying events of last week reminding us how it is fear rather than fact propelling the immigration debate, now would seem to be a good time to  actually to look at the figures on immigration and what would be the effect of a Brexit.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) Migration Statistic Quarterly Report provides a wealth of data on the inflow and outflows of migration. For the year ending 2015 net migration was 286,000.  The report goes on to break down the net migration figures into the reasons for their migration.

Of the 286,000 figure 134,000, or 47 per cent of net migration, were students coming to our universities. On average since 2004, students coming to our world class universities have counted for 66 per cent of total net migration.

All parts of the  Leave Campaign, including UKIP, see International Students as positive for the country and do not want this to change.

Another 78,000 people, or 28 per cent of net migration, were those coming for ‘definite jobs’, therefore filling in the skill gaps in our economy. The Leave Campaign, including UKIP, are well aware that sectors including the NHS, would collapse if these skilled workers were not recruited, and have supported an ‘Australian Style’ immigration policy to recruit these skills.

Therefore, we can assume this figure will not change if there is a Brexit.

So finally, 58,000 people of the net migration figure for 2015 were  ‘looking for work’ from all around the world.  The ONS figures also point to  19,000 UK citizen going to the EU ‘looking for work’ with another  24,000 British Citizens coming back to the UK without work in 2015, a sizable number from the EU.

We could unrealistically suppose that there would be no one from the EU allowed to come to the UK ‘looking for work’ after Brexit, and there would not be a massive inflow in Brits coming back from the EU without jobs after Brexit – both probable.

But even then, being very generous in our estimates, the direct effect of leaving the EU on net migration would be a net reduction of 43,000 on last year.  In other words, the ‘dramatic’ effect of a Brexit would putting 15 per cent of the net migration within our control, and not necessary reduce it by that number.

When UKIP talk about the reducing net migration to 50,000, or Brexit campaigners, like Priti Patel, call for drastic reduction in migration as it is ‘out of control‘ there are only two ways this can be achieved; we cut drastically the number of international students coming to the UK, therefore destroying the international education sector worth over seven billion to our economy.

Or we drastically cut those coming to the UK with skills causing a skills shortage of massive proportions in sectors like the NHS.

The truth on migration is that there are indeed hundreds of thousands of foreigners coming to our country, and 13,000 are going to Oxford, another 4,000 are going to Bristol, and another 10,000 are going to Edinburgh, where they are they paying £29,000 per year to learn veterinary science, or £39,000 per year for a postgraduate course in Clinical Sciences and providing in effect a subsidy for UK students.

That only one in five of these students stay for further postgraduate education, or highly skilled work is a shame as we are letting go easily of a resource that many countries, like Germany, would love to nab, as shown by their reducing their countries fees for international students to zero.

There may be many reasons for supporting a Brexit, such as you don’t feel European, or that you believe our business will succeed free from the single market.

However, the idea that a vote for Brexit will mean a significant reduction in net migration simply has no statistical justification.

3 Responses to “Vote Leave and UKIP would keep 85 per cent of net migration as it is”

  1. NHSGP

    How about a migrant minimum wage.

    Set to the level at which the migrant makes a net contribution to current costs.

    Future costs another issue.

    Lets cherry pick migrants.

    lets not have migrants picking cherries.

  2. Nick

    The main point that everyone one is missing is that the Brexit people assume everything about taking back control of immigration along with more money for this that and the other which is complete nonsense

    Every word they utter is complete fiction why? They are not running this country and it will be until 2020 to see how their views are at that time and if the public will put into government a UKIP political party

    as it stands at this time a miracle would have to happen but until then all of their views are just circumstantial and could never be accountable under any circumstances

    All they have given so far to the public is wish list of what they stand for and what they hope to achieve

    At the end of the day in or out of the EU only a prime minister of honesty and integrity can restore sovereignty and democracy along with justice as there are many countries in the world that abuse their sovereignty and kill their citizens

    Never be fooled by what your told you need to look deep into how your own individual viewpoint may influence those around you and for the good of others

    Jo cox was such a person who although unknown was very gifted and had been asked to undertake roles in life of which she cared about and along that journey moved up into a position to run as a mp

    It’s a pity her friends that have spoken so highly of her now did not get her to run as the labour leader as i believe she would have walked it as she was very popular with the conservatives and indeed all mp’s that knew her

    no what happened the labour mp’s selfishly just looked out for themselves as if to say i wont to be the leader instead of reaching out to jo the natural choice of leader who had always put others first

  3. Mike Stallard

    Mrs Merkel declared that Germany would welcome the poor Syrian refugees and she caused a furore when it came to pass that these poor refugees were sexual predators. Even the dear old Swedes revolted. Now in Calais there is a group of uncontrolled people with few if any papers risking life and limb to get here. All over Europe racism and fascism and – yes – outright Nazism are beginning to slither back.
    And we here seem to have no control over it at all. We are also pressured to take more and more “asylum seekers”. Our towns, and London especially, are no more English than, say, Dubai. That is what people are objecting to.
    In Charley and the Chocolate Factory, the Umpalumpas were brought in to replace people like Charley’s granddad. In my town, yo can forget a factory job unless you speak Baltic.
    Labour just don’t get it.

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