A gloomy forecast for Labour in Scotland

New polling shows no sign of the reported Labour revival among younger voters



Labour has failed to see a post-Corbyn boost in Scotland, according to new polling.

TNS asked respondents who said they would vote in the constituency section of next year’s elections to Holyrood who they would vote for. According to the data Labour remains languishing on 21 per cent, running second to the SNP on 53 per cent.

This represents a 2 percentage point drop in support for both parties since the last poll.

Support for the Conservatives is unchanged at 12 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats are on 6 per cent, up one percentage point.

Asked how they would vote in the regional list section, of those who expressed a preference, 52 per cent said the SNP (up 1 point) and 23 per cent said Labour (down 1 point to 23 per cent. Support for the Conservatives and Lib Dems is unchanged at 11 per cent and 6 per cent respectively, while the Greens have fallen 1 point to 5 per cent.

There was similarly little change in voting intentions in the regional list section of the Holyrood vote. Among those who expressed a preference, 52 per cent intended to vote SNP (up 1 percentage point) and 23 per cent said Labour (down one point).

11 per cent said they’d vote for the Conservatives and 6 per cent for the Liberal Democrats (no change). Support for the Greens in this section was down 1 point to 5 per cent.

In a fairly gloomy assessment of the poll for the Labour Party Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland said:

“People are still getting to know the new Labour leaders and what they stand for, so it’s not surprising there has been little immediate impact on voting intentions.

“One crumb of comfort for Labour may be that the overwhelmingly negative media commentary on Corbyn’s election appears not to have affected the party’s Scottish support, though the poll was carried out before his recent statement that he would never authorise the use of the UK’s nuclear deterrent if he became prime minister.

“Neither did the poll show signs of the reported Labour revival among younger voters: the party’s support in Scotland among the 16-34 age group was only 13 per cent, down four points on the previous month and a fifth of the SNP’s support in this age group (68 per cent).”

Those polled were also asked how they were planning to vote in the forthcoming referendum on EU membership. The data show that 47 per cent plan to vote to remain a member of the EU, two points down since TNS last asked this question in May.

18 per cent said they would be voting to support withdrawal from the EU (down one point), while 29 per cent said that they were undecided how they were going to vote. 5 per cent said they would not be voting at all.

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor at Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

8 Responses to “A gloomy forecast for Labour in Scotland”

  1. Cole

    So much for all the Corbynista hype about Scotland…

  2. Lovejoy

    As the late Charles Kennedy said – the Unionists need a left-wing Scottish Unionist party – as the Labour party and Liberal Democrats are ‘knackered’ in Scotland.

  3. Alasdair Macdonald

    For all the pious statements of “We are listening, we have learned, we have changed” Scottish Labour has NOT changed. The shadow cabinet is still substantially Donald Dewar’s cabinet of 16 years ago, There are no policies. There is no constructiveness. It is a continual attack on the SNP, mainly based on spurious or unproven cases or on matters which are reserved to Westminster. These ridiculous attacks are supported word for word by the Tories and the Lib Dems and BBC Scotland. The baleful and nasty Mr McTernan seems to weild significant influence. Mr Corbyn had been very badly briefed by his Scottish colleagues, with the result that the assertions he made in interviews in Scotland were heard with incredulity and a weary shake of the head. Many people feel Mr Corbyn is a decent man, who has strong popular support within the grassroots, but is being viciously attacked by the mainstream (or corporate) media, probably supported by the Blairites. Ruth Davidson’s claim that the Tories will form the official opposition in the next Scottish Parliament is entirely plausible given the sad state of the Labour Party. What does it actually believe in?


    With four right wing parties including the Nat sis what can change. Glasgow about to shed around three thousand council jobs and a council tax freeze again! The Scottish rich getting richer. The Nat sis not using tax raising powers and shedding false tears about food banks. So who is going to be different?

  5. madasafish

    Only naive idiots believe a politician’s promises.

  6. arthurfaeleith

    Why do you keep going on about your sister? And are you sure she has tax raising powers? Bizzare delusions of grandeur by proxy.


    Arfur fae leef. What are you on tonight.

  8. arthurfaeleith

    You keep on talking about your sis. Why?

    And is it because you’re a working class Glaswegian that you can’t pronounce ‘th’?

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