Scotland and Wales –a contrast in Labour’s fortunes

While support for the SNP continues to increase, Labour are managing to claw back some of their support in Wales

carwynjones

 

Labour’s hope of reversing its dramatic decline in the polls in Scotland is ‘very unlikely’ to be fulfilled, according to experts at the British Election survey.

Writing for the BES website, Professor Jane Green of Manchester University and Chris Prosser from Oxford University have concluded in stark language:

“It is Labour’s hope that the losses it has seen to the SNP are temporary, and that those voters will come back to Labour in six weeks’ time. Our data suggests that while not impossible, that prospect is very unlikely.”

With Labour seeking in earnest to woo back those of it previous voters who supported independence in September’s referendum, the latest BES polling indicates that this looks almost impossible to achieve.

According to the figures Scotland has been polarised like never before, with over 90 per cent of people indicating that they intend to vote SNP having voted for independence. In contrast, just over 89 per cent of Labour voters rejected independence in September.

Among all those voters north of the border that voted ‘Yes’ in the referendum, the proportion indicating that they will vote for the SNP has increased from just over 55 per cent in Feb/March 2014 to almost 79 per cent in March 2015.

In contrast, the proportion of pro-independence supporters indicating support for Labour has fallen from 21.5 per cent in Feb/March 2014 to just under six per cent in March 2015.

To make matters even worse for Labour, 94 per cent of those planning to vote SNP are certain to do so.

Meanwhile, as Labour’s Welsh leader Carwyn Jones prepares to launch the party’s election campaign there today, the party will be cheered up by the latest findings of the Welsh Political Barometer.

Conducted as a collaboration of YouGov, ITV and Cardiff University, the latest figures give Labour a commanding lead, on 40 per cent of the vote (up one percentage point since earlier in the month).

The Conservatives are unchanged on 25 per cent, UKIP remain on 14 per cent, Plaid Cymru is on 11 per cent (up one point), the Greens go down a point to five per cent, and the Lib Dems are unchanged on five per cent. Other parties are on one per cent.

According to the analysis by Professor Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science at the Wales Governance Centre, this would give Labour 28 seats (keeping the 26 they won in 2010, and picking up both Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats and Cardiff North from the Conservatives).

The Conservatives would retain eight seats (losing Cardiff North to Labour, whilst gaining Brecon & Radnor from the Liberal Democrats)

Plaid Cymru would remain unchanged on three seats whilst the Liberal Democrats would lose all of there seats except Ceredigion.

Scully said:

“Having seen their vote share decline steadily in the Welsh opinion polls throughout 2013 and 2014, this is the third Barometer poll of 2015 to show that Labour have halted that decline and even reversed it to a slight extent.

“This places the party in a strong position to make at least some gains in the general election. The Conservatives’ poll rating also remains robust at a level very close to that which they won in the 2010 election, while Plaid Cymru will be encouraged to be edging up marginally in support, again to more-or-less the level they won in the last election.

“However, Plaid remain in fourth place – behind UKIP, whose decline in our previous two Barometer polls appears to have levelled out for now.

“While the Liberal Democrats poll rating also remains steady, they will surely be less encouraged by stability than many of their opponents. The Lib-Dems continue to poll at only one-quarter of their 2010 vote share, and have made no ground at all since the previous Barometer poll.

“About the best thing that can be said for their performance here is that at least they are no longer in sixth place – the slight fall in support for the Greens places both of those parties in a joint, but rather distant, fifth.”

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

5 Responses to “Scotland and Wales –a contrast in Labour’s fortunes”

  1. Socialist agenda

    Thanks for this patronising view from over the bridge. You would have written a far better article if you understand Welsh Political history. Welsh Labour had their battle with UK Labour many years ago and won.
    Alun Michael & Rhodri Morgan, ring any bells?

  2. Guest

    Well feel free to come back to the UK side anytime. Good over there in America this time of year?

  3. Gary Scott

    At last we see political commentators looking beyond Westminster Village. However it will take some time to gain understanding of the views of people in Wales and Scotland. One thing to remember, all votes cast are essentially tactical. This is why Labour’s vote in Scotland has shifted so quickly. Obviously Wales has a very different history but nevertheless complacency can easily kill support.

  4. Leon Wolfeson

    “all votes cast are essentially tactical”

    Er…

    Much of the two main party and SNP vote is tribal, per the voting analysis on UK Polling Report a while back.

  5. littleoddsandpieces

    FORESTALL THE COMING TORY / LABOUR

    Labour cannot gain a majority, neither can the Tories.

    So the most severe hung parliament will only mean a
    second general election this year and
    then a TORY / LABOUR COALITION.

    The way to bring back Labour to being anti austerity / welfare reform / pension abolition and bring the UK from the brink of a dictatorship without a party on the opposition benches, is to vote different.

    The parties of the poor are mostly getting nil media coverage.

    Only SNP and Plaid Cymru are getting any mention.

    POOR OUTNUMBER NOW
    ALL OTHER VOTERS
    IN MANY MARGINALS

    Tory and Lib Dem marginals can be gained by Plaid Cymru,

    Labour have said again and again they are not the party of those on benefit.

    Which means not the party for poor pensioners, poor disabled, working poor, not only the mere 3 per cent of the benefits bill that are the unemployed.

    HOW THE POOR COULD BRING PLAID CYMRU
    INTO A MULTI PARTY COALITION
    THAT WOULD CHANGE LABOUR
    AND BRING AN ANTI AUSTERITY GOVERNMENT

    Example where poor voters massively outnumber
    the Tory and Lib Dem MP marginals in Wales.

    PLAID CYMRU

    CARDIFF NORTH – WALES

    Plaid Cymru candidate:
    Elin Walker Jones

    Tory Majority 194

    Working Age Claimants – 5,540

    Poor Pensioners – 33,390

    DISABLED VOTERS – 12,390

    Disabled on Employment and Support Allowance – 6,310

    Disabled welfare supported

    under 65 – 5,030

    CARERS ON BENEFIT – 2,730

    POOR HAVE PLAID CYMRU NOT LABOUR IN WALES

    Plaid Cymru is not a loss to Labour, but the only way Labour can be utterly changed and to ensure stable government.

    http://www.anastasia-england.me.uk

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