SNP lead down to 10 points in latest poll

If replicated at a General Election this would be less disastrous for Labour than some have predicted

New polling suggests that Labour’s fortunes in Scotland may not be quite as bleak as thought.

The figures from those Scots who state a voting preference and are certain to vote, complied by TNS, puts the SNP on 41 per cent, Labour on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 16 per cent, the Greens on 6 per cent, the Lib Dems on 19 per cent and UKIP on 2 per cent.

If replicated at a General Election this would be less disastrous for Labour than recent polling which has given the SNP a 20-point lead.

Commenting on the findings, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University noted that if replicated at a General Election Labour would “hang on to half of its current seats”.

“It reminds us of just how much difference a few points either way makes to Labour and SNP prospects,” he added.

Asked how the change of Scottish Labour’s leader in December to Jim Murphy affected their vote, 8 per cent of Scottish voters said it made them more likely to vote Labour, 8 per cent said less likely and 77 per cent said it made no difference to how they would vote.

Almost two-thirds (64 per cent) of those polled said they were now certain to vote at the General Election, noticeably lower than the 85 per cent turnout seen during the independence referendum.

Commenting on the figures, head of TNS Scotland Tom Costley said:

“It would appear that the high level of turnout for the independence referendum is not going to be replicated, not surprising when you consider the different context between the two events.”

“The turnaround in the Scottish political scene which sees the SNP polling at this level has been widely attributed to traditional Labour voters who voted Yes in the referendum deciding to stay with the SNP. But it is also worth noting that the SNP may well also have benefited from the collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote – from 19 per cent in the 2010 election to 4 per cent in the latest poll.”

Costley continued:

“It should also be noted that one quarter (26 per cent) of all adults aged 18+ in Scotland, and 24 per cent of those who say they are certain to vote on the day, are currently undecided, suggesting there is still considerable scope for all parties to influence the final results in the next three months.”

Responding to the poll, a spokesperson for Scottish Labour warned that “in the end the only people who will benefit from these polls are David Cameron and the Tories”.

“It is a simple fact that the single biggest party gets to form the next government. The more seats the SNP get from Labour, the more likely it is the Tories will be the biggest party and David Cameron will get into government through the back door.”

For the SNP, declaring the poll to be a “major blow” to the Labour leadership, the party’s General Election campaign director, Angus Robertson responded:

“By electing SNP MPs, the people of Scotland can vote to get rid of the Tories, protect the welfare of everyone who lives here, and promote progressive politics across the UK.”

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward

20 Responses to “SNP lead down to 10 points in latest poll”

  1. Jim Bennett

    Arithmetic not your strong point, is it?
    “the SNP on 41 per cent, Labour on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 16 per cent, the Greens on 6 per cent, the Lib Dems on 19 per cent and UKIP on 2 per cent.”
    Apparently, 115% of Scotland is going to vote!

  2. swat

    Not a complete wipe out then; just losing half the seats. Similar situation to the Lib Dems, nationally.

  3. swat

    … but the refrain : ‘A Vote for the SNP is a Vote for Cameron’ … is pretty pathetic, if I may say so.

  4. Alasdair

    Nor yours, Jim …. 117%

  5. ForeignRedTory

    Unfortunately, there is an element of truth behind it. If it were otherwise, it would merely be comical.

  6. Jim Bennett

    hahahaha…touche!

  7. David McKendrick

    I thought it was just Ukip that couldn’t do maths?

  8. robertcp

    The mistake is that the Lib Dems should be on 4%. The incorrect figures do come to 115% by the way.

  9. robertcp

    The Labour Party clearly employs some idiots. It is not a simple fact that the biggest party gets to form the next government. Labour was not the biggest party when it formed a government in 1924 and the second party discussed a coalition with the third party in 1974 and 2010.

  10. JPJ2

    EXCEPT it is NOT the most recent poll-just the most recently published one.

  11. Jim Bennett

    You’re as bad as me and the original author – it is 117%!!!

  12. swat

    Obviously referring to Heath, trying to cling onto power; but then he still wouldn’t have had an overall majority with the Lib Dems. In 2010,, there was could be a stable majority and the coalition lasted its full term. That’s why its ridiculous to even suggest that Brown or Labour could have stitched up a Coalition to keep the Tories out in 2010.

  13. robertcp

    I am curious how we both made the same mistake? I have counted again and it comes to 115!

  14. anon

    115, I’d say – I have done it twice.

  15. robertcp

    I agree.

  16. David Wilson

    He is using your repost to do his calculation and missing the 2% ukip lol

  17. David Wilson

    He is using your repost to do his calculation and missing the 2% ukip lol

  18. David Wilson

    you are using Jims repost to do this calculation and missing the 2% ukip in the original article at the top of the page lol

  19. robertcp

    I did not miss the 2% for UKIP, so I have no idea what you are talking about. The mistake concerned the Lib Dem share of the vote in any case.

  20. robertcp

    41 + 31 = 72
    72 + 16 = 88

    88 + 6 = 94
    94 + 19 = 113
    113 + 2 = 115

    What the f”*? are you on about? It is is 2 April by the way.

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