Assad is still the biggest threat to ordinary Syrians

ISIS are allowing Assad to pose as rational and humane. This couldn't be further from the truth

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With the murder of journalist Kenji Goto, ISIS have again demonstrated their carefully packaged and branded approach to terrorism. From logo to costumes, from the attention-grabbing trailing of their murders to their ‘please share’ death videos, they present perhaps the most compelling integration of marketing and political violence since the Nazis. They are the perfect terrorists from Central Casting.

But while ISIS flaunt their brutality, the greatest threat to Syrians, and consequently the greatest threat to regional stability and to European security, remains the Assad regime. In December, the Assad regime was responsible for three-quarters of all violent deaths recorded by the Syrian Network for Human Rights. Amongst civilians the proportion was even higher: over 85 per cent of civilians killed in December were victims of the Assad regime.

The Assad regime is responsible for over 95 per cent of all civilian violent deaths recorded by the Violations Documentation Centre in Syria since March 2011. According to VDC figures, in the last year, over seven times as many civilians were confirmed killed by Assad air strikes as were killed by ISIS in the province of Raqqa, the ISIS stronghold.

Like ISIS, Assad also has a marketing strategy. Unlike ISIS, his strategy is not to flaunt his brutality, at least when dealing with the wider world beyond Syria. From before ISIS appeared, from the very start of peaceful protests against his dictatorship in 2011, he has claimed that all of his opponents are terrorists and has sought to portray himself as the opposite: a civilised leader in a Western businessman’s suit and tie. The contrast between his costume and those of ISIS is perfect.

For years there have been allegations from former insiders that the Assad regime deliberately brought about the rise of ISIS: from Nawaf Fares, former Syrian ambassador to Iraq; from Mohammed Habash, former member of the Syrian parliament; from Bassam Barabandi, former Syrian diplomat; from a former member of Syria’s Military Intelligence Directorate.

The regime had a known history of facilitating their earlier incarnation, Al Qaeda in Iraq, and there is objective evidence that the regime avoided conflict with ISIS as they took over territory from the Free Syrian Army and associated rebel groups. Despite this, Assad’s marketing of himself as a force to counter terrorism has had an unreasonable degree of success.

It’s sadly no longer surprising when Patrick Cockburn in the Independent pitches the topsy-turvy notion that keeping Assad might help counter terrorism; nor when we see it coming from Leslie Gelb writing for the Daily Beast website – he has pushed this line before. The disturbing thing is that Gelb now claims anonymous sources in the Obama administration are telling him that Obama also buys this line.

Seeing this echoed in a New York Times editorial makes it even more unsettling, as the New York Times editorial board has for some time been a prime target of Obama administration PR efforts. For more on reactions to this, see Akbar Shahid Ahmed’s report, Springtime for Assad.

Assad may have hoped that his recent interview with Foreign Affairs magazine would be the perfect culmination of his pitch as Syria’s man of reason, a secular leader the West can do business with; but Jonathan Tepperman, the journalist who conducted the interview, begs to differ. He writes:

he was disconcertingly good at presenting himself as a reasonable, rational actor. His critique of America’s Middle East policy, for example, is one shared by many lefties in the West: The U.S. role, he told me, should be “to help peace in the region, to fight terrorism, to promote secularism, to support this area economically” and “not to launch wars. Launching war doesn’t make you a great power.”

But behind the cheery aphorisms and the barely-there mustache is a man so unyielding and deeply deceptive – or delusional – that it’s impossible to imagine him ever negotiating an equitable end to Syria’s civil war.

Either Syria’s president is an extremely competent fabulist – in which case he’s merely a sociopath – or he actually believes his lies, in which case he’s something much more dangerous (like a delusional psychopath).

An end to Syria’s war requires an end to Assad, and an end to ISIS requires the same. Obama’s current ISIS-only strategy in Syria fails on both counts. The least the US-led coalition against ISIS should do is to make protection of civilians the priority: stop air attacks by Assad, the enabler of ISIS, and give the parts of Syria outside of Assad and ISIS control some chance of peace and stability.

Kellie Strom blogs at Air Force Amazons and tweets here

17 Responses to “Assad is still the biggest threat to ordinary Syrians”

  1. Kris

    Sure.

    Moammar al-Qadhafi was the greatest threat to Libya too, I suppose. That worked out extremely well.

  2. JoeDM

    And Islamic State isn’t !!! What planet are you on?

  3. swat

    Its about time Britain woke up to who is the real enemy; its certainly not Assad, or Putin.
    The political elite keep on making the same mistakes time and again. The Arab Spring encouraged by the West and financed by the West turned out to be a complete disaster. We destabilised Assad, and Saddam , and Gadaffi, and managed to put something worse instead. We could defeat ISIS with Shock and Awe and put in ground troops. But better the Arabs did it themselves. But the creation of ISIS has everything t do with Islam, and until that Religion undergoes fundamental reform, the World is not going to be a safe place. Every Muslim is responsible for the creation of this monster ISIS. And they must not be allowed to get away with quoting that ‘Islam is a religion of peace’. Its not.

  4. Guest

    The one where they looked at a map, for starters.

  5. Guest

    Yada yada democracy is the threat yada yada.

    No surprise you support Putin and Assad – making the world unsafe. Your policy of fighting billions of people based on their religion is also going to end badly for you, as you try and justify violence based on extremism by a tiny fraction of billions.

  6. Guest

    Oh yes, when *he* slaughtered people it was fine, eh?

  7. Kris

    I never said so. I just don`t buy this crap the situation will improve after a regime change. It is only going to lead to more bloodshed until finally some Islamic group has seized total control and all other groups have been killed or expelled.

  8. Kellie

    Confirmed violent deaths in Libya last year were 2,825 people killed including combatants as well as civilians. http://www.libyabodycount.org/ Why don’t you compare that to figures for Syria last year? Of course Libya is a smaller country – Syria’s pre-war population was about 3.5 times the size of Libya’s. So go ahead and multiply that Libya number by 3.5 and compare it to Syria. By any measure Syria is much worse.

    There are various sources for Syria numbers. Likely the most reliable are the UN reports, the most recent of which only goes up to April 2014. It gave a minimum count of 61,816 killed in the 12 months from May 2013 to April 2014.

    http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/SY/HRDAGUpdatedReportAug2014.pdf

    The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights gives a figure of over 76,000 killed for all of 2014. Some prefer not to cite SOHR as they are not as transparent as some other groups.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30648181

    The most accessible data is that provided by the Violations Documentation Center in Syria. They are one of the sources used by the UN. They list a total of 31,241 confirmed violent deaths for 2014: 26,721 listed under Martyrs, 4,520 listed under Regime. However the UN reports so far have shown that VDC Syria is missing nearly half of all violent deaths, if not more.

    http://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/en/

  9. Dave Stewart

    “Every Muslim is responsible for the creation of this monster ISIS”

    Are you serious? Every Muslim? What about a 5 year girl in Birmingham? Would she be responsible for ISIS?

    Are all Christians responsible for the KKK? Were all Germans (at the time) responsible for the Nazis? Were all Russians (and a host of other nationalities) responsible for the excess of the Soviet Union? Were all Cambodians responsible for the Khmer Rouge?

    Let me answer that for you, no, no they weren’t.

  10. Jacob R.

    What “democracy”? Iraq after Saddam was a democracy? Or do you see what is happening in Libya since they overthrew Gaddafi? Ya, I bet you think al-Nusra and the other “moderate rebels” are fighting for “democracy” against Assad.

  11. Guest

    Yes yes, keep ignoring the fact you’ve called for ending democracy in the West.

    You demand that we join with chlorine bombers and invaders, against the rest of the civilised world – and to be just as genocidal as your heroes.

  12. Kris

    Syria is still at war and Libya technically isn`t. Compare the current figures of Libya to the figures predating the uprising in Libya (or Syria for that matter) and if current numbers of casualties now is lower than before , then you might have a point. Now you don`t. It`s this revolt thing that is the main cause for the current high numbers in Syria. When the dust has settled and Assad finally has been removed and killed the only thing you will see is more bloodshed than before(and by before i mean the time before the Arabic spring started). That is not too hard to understand, is it?

  13. Nick D'Aloise

    what utter garbage

  14. Guest

    I see your excuses for Assad and his chlorine bombs just fine.

  15. Guest

    Yea, how dare dictators not be free to use chemical weapons!

  16. Jacob R.

    lmao wtf

  17. Guest

    Yes, that can indeed be asked about your posts. The ones which are still there.

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