Ed Miliband needs to conquer is his image problem which, four years on from taking the leadership of the party, remains a noose around the party’s neck.
Ed Miliband needs to conquer is his image problem which, four years on from taking the leadership of the party, remains a noose around the party’s neck
Next year’s General Election will be one in which the near impossible will have occurred whatever the result.
Should the Conservatives seize the levers of powers they will have defied historical precedents and increased its share of the vote whilst in power between elections.
The last time that happened was Harold Wilson in 1974, and even that was a special case which saw the country going to the polls twice in a year as a response to the hung parliament elected in the February of that year.
The re-election of a coalition government, of whatever form, would also be unprecedented in recent electrical history.
What then of the mountain facing Labour as Ed Miliband prepares later today to deliver his final rallying call to the party faithful ahead of the General Election?
His mission is clear – to ensure that Labour remains a one-term opposition. The last time this was achieved however was in 1970, when Edward Heath managed to bring Harold Wilson’s first government to an end after just one term.
History then makes any result next year highly unusual.
What then of the polling?
Since 1979, there have been just three changes in the governing party. Thatcher took the keys of Downing Street from James Callaghan in 1979; Tony Blair comprehensively beat John Major’s Conservatives in 1997 and in 2010 we know what happened.
Based on data within Ipsos Mori’s historical archives, the figures do not bode well for Ed Miliband or the Labour Party more widely.
Looking just at the polling data from the conferences prior to each General Election, in September 1978, ahead of Thatcher’s victory the year after, the data put the Conservatives on 48 per cent against Labour’s 42 per cent.
In September 1996, New Labour had effectively sealed the deal, with the polling having put the party on 52 per cent against the Conservatives 29 per cent.
For the Conservatives in September 2009, Ipsos Mori saw the party polling 36 per cent against Labour on 24 per cent.
The lesson from recent history is clear – the party going into the final conference ahead of the general election has found themselves either winning outright or being the dominate force within government.
With this month’s survey data from Ipsos putting the Tories on 34 per cent, one percentage point ahead of Labour, the party would need to pull a rabbit out of the hat if it is to form a government next year.
But the second mountain Ed Miliband needs to conquer is his image problem which, four years on from taking the leadership of the party, remains a noose around the party’s neck.
Whilst those in Labour circles might point to the polling in September 1978 which put Jim Callaghan ahead of Thatcher when voters were asked who they were most satisfied with, despite the Conservatives going on to win the following year, this remains the exception to the rule.
In September 1996, Blair led Major on satisfaction rates by 13 percentage points whilst David Cameron, at the same time in 2009, enjoyed a 16 percentage point lead over Gordon Brown.
With this month’s Ipsos Mori polling putting David Cameron’s satisfaction ratings at 39 per cent compared to Ed Miliband’s 29 per cent, the Labour leader has everything to do to persuade a sceptical public that the party and he himself in particular is ready to govern for the One Nation he spoke about in Manchester two years ago.
History does not give cause for optimism.
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59 Responses to “History should not give cause for optimism for Labour”
InbredBlockhead
Labour just love diversity. So if you are white native working class and hate your own children and grand children Vote Labour and cr*p on their heads.
Here’s Diversity for your kids LibLabCon style from the Westminster on Crime Scum. Essex County Council has been outed for discriminating against young people of white British ethnicity.
The council was exposed for operating an apprenticeship scheme which states that any employer who chooses a non-white non-British over a white British apprentice will be rewarded with a subsidy and a grant of £2,500.
The whistle was blown by the Managing Director of recruitment agency Get Me Group, Ben Drain, who learnt of the policy when searching for apprenticeship placements for young job seekers only to find that they denied the opportunities on the ground of their race.
“I think it is outrageous that our own council is discriminating against young white British people – and encouraging employers to ‘positively’ discriminate against them,” exclaimed Mr Drain.
Racial discrimination at local government level has meant young white British people are finding it increasingly difficult to secure work and build themselves a career.
The race discrimination plot thickens: In a shameful denial of responsibility Essex County Council shrugged off accusations of racial discrimination claiming that the Diversity in Apprenticeship (DIA) initiative is a national programme funded by the National Apprenticeship Service (NAS), and therefore out of their hands.
In the NAS report ‘Good practice Evaluation of the Diversity in Apprenticeships Pilot’ describes their preferred apprentice as ‘Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic’ a term referred to by the acronym BAME.
Can you imagine the fallout if any organisation dared to modify its employment policy to provide grants and subsidies to any employer putting young white British job seekers before any other ethnic group? One rule for them, another one for us!
Who speaks for the children of the British native race, why are you at Westminster trying to destroy them?
Guest
Why are you blaming Labour for your cr*p throwing habits?
You find one problem, which needs fixing. But no, you call for institutionalising it with different targets across the country, based on your bigotry. Your far right are not a race, they are a political group, and have zero protection as such in law.
Guest
That’s right, you keep talking about Powell’s call for violence and death, which you echo, as you spew hate about your far right being marginalised, as you say that Scottish people are not British, etc.
Guest
I don’t see him suffering from your issue there.
Guest
Yes, of course – you definitely bemoan the fact he came back of course, as you call on your dear Leaders. And what will you pay out for losing, since he hasn’t said he supports your views?