Poll shows momentum swinging away from Yes campaign

Campaigners for Scottish independence have suffered a setback this morning with the release of new polling.

Campaigners for Scottish independence have suffered a setback this morning with the release of polling indicating that the momentum being built in favour of Scotland splitting from the UK may have come to a halt.

According to the data prepared by TNS, of the 1019 adults aged over 16 polled 42 per cent indicated that they intend to vote yes, 28 per cent no while 30 per cent did not know how they will vote.

Looking only at those who say they are certain to vote in September’s referendum, the margin between the two camps stays the same, with 46 per cent preferring to stay in the union and 32 per cent going for independence. Just under a quarter (22 per cent) of this group did not know how they would vote.

The findings come just days after polling conducted by ICM for Scotland on Sunday, which found that 39 per cent intend to vote in favour of independence compared to 46 per cent who intend to vote no and 15 per cent who did not know how they would vote.

Commenting on the findings, head of TNS in Scotland Tom Costley said:

“It would appear that there is now a settled group of voters who have more or less made up their minds to vote either Yes or No.

“Despite the best efforts of the two campaigns, there continues to be a significant number of people in the ‘don’t know’ category.”

Responding to the poll, chief executive of Yes Scotland Blair Jenkins sought to point to other polls published this month showing that the direction of travel is towards independence. He explained:

“The three other polls published in March all sampled after the TNS one started, and including these figures in a monthly poll of polls shows that Yes support is running at 44 per cent on average this month – and the gap with No has halved since November.

“The direction of travel is extremely encouraging, and we are confident that we will continue this progress and achieve a Yes vote in September, with the compelling message that Scotland can, should and must be independent.”

For Better Together, its campaign director Blair McDougall argued that the poll showed momentum was with the campaign to keep Scotland within the Union. He explained

“The momentum is clearly with the campaign for Scotland to remain in the UK, with support for separation falling even though it is already below historic levels.

“Alex Salmond’s failure to be honest about the consequences of separation is damaging his campaign.”

2 Responses to “Poll shows momentum swinging away from Yes campaign”

  1. Stephen Latham

    I think you have got the figures the wrong way round, in the second paragraph you said “…. 42 per cent indicated that they intend to vote yes, 28 per cent no while 30 per cent did not know how they will vote.”

    This is what the link says

    “…. 42% intend to vote No, 28% will say Yes and 30% do not know.”

    http://news.stv.tv/scotland/269285-poll-suggests-a-third-of-voters-still-undecided-on-referendum/

  2. Didymus

    In your very first paragraph, you have wrongly reported on the findings of the poll you link to.From the TNS website you link to; “Of the 1019 adults aged over 16 polled by TNS, 42% intend to vote No, 28% will say Yes and 30% do not know”

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