Yes to independence campaign gains significant ground

The gap between those who support Scottish independence and those who oppose it has narrowed, according to a new poll.

The gap between those who support Scottish independence and those who oppose it has narrowed, according to a new poll.

The findings, collected by Survation on behalf of the Scottish Daily Mail, show that 38 per cent support independence compared to 47 per cent who oppose it. Earlier this month, similar polling by the same organisation had given the No camp a 20 per cent lead.

The poll is the first to be undertaken since the recent exchanges over a currency union, with the chancellor, together with the Liberal Democrats and Labour, having made it clear that they will not let an independent Scotland remain part of sterling.

Asked about their attitudes to the currency union, both those supporting and opposing independence have a strong preference for a currency union that would enable them to keep the pound (41 per cent for Yes voters and even more, 52 per cent, for No voters).

However, when asked what they expected to actually happen, only 23 per cent of No voters expected a currency union to come about. In contrast, 45 per cent of Yes voters believed that a currency union would come about.

No voters were more likely than Yes voters to take the pessimistic view that Scotland would end up using the pound with no currency union and no control over monetary policy (20 per cent held this view), and 23 per cent said they did not know what currency Scotland would end up with.

Yes voters were more confident, with just 9 per cent expressing uncertainty about the future of Scotland’s currency.

Interestingly, the intervention of the three main UK wide parties seems to have had little effect. The pollsters explain:

“Looking specifically at the intervention by the ‘three chancellors’ announcing they would not be willing to enter a currency union, the effects have simply been to harden the stance of supporters on both sides of the independence debate. Only 4 per cent of No voters and 3 per cent of Yes voters suggested it would make them at all more likely to consider the alternative option, though the reaction of solidifying support was stronger on the Yes side, due probably to a visceral reaction amongst nationalists against any suggestion of being threatened by English politicians.”

Responding to the results, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University observed that “when one looks at this poll, one has, at minimum, to conclude that it offers no evidence that the currency intervention has delivered the No side any immediate boost.”

Declaring the findings to be “exceptionally encouraging” for the Yes campaign, the SNP deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon declared:

“It is clear that there has been a severe backlash to George Osborne’s bluster and threats on the pound – with more than half of the No campaign’s lead wiped out in just three weeks, and far more people more likely to vote Yes on the back of the Westminster establishment’s attempted bullying rather than No.”

Calling however on Alex Salmond to provide a plan B on the currency, Alistair Darling, head of the Better Together campaign, responded:

“We know that if we leave the UK, we are leaving behind the security of the pound.

“Scots are clearly saying to Alex Salmond that he cannot keep us in the dark.”

21 Responses to “Yes to independence campaign gains significant ground”

  1. Alec

    With respect, Ed, the Survation poll should – until new data are provided – be taken with as much seriousness as Fish-heid NicMoonface’s argument during the Daily Politics. That is, sweet Felicity Arkwright.

    Have you actually read is John Curtice’s assessment?

    However, there is an important difference between the way in which this poll was conducted and analysed and the way in which Survation’s previous poll was undertaken.

    That difference probably accounts for most if not necessarily all of the apparent swing in favour of independence.

    And here is the not so much oleaginuous Alex Salmond, as flapping around like a cod on the deck:

    ALEX Salmond has bought George Osborne a bus ticket to Aberdeen on Monday – as he tries to secure a visit to the energy capital from the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

    “I realise a private jet would be more his style but I just can’t afford that.”

    Yeah, and I bet he gets Megabus around Scotland or flies economy when attending international events… or even that there were no economy flights to Aberdeen. And how did he travel to Copenhagen 2009 and on whose purse?

    This sort of political onanism would is at the level of Glasgow University SU’s choice of rector, not an elected representative leading a regional government nevermind a wannabe leader of an independent state. What a ridiculous buffoon.

    ~alec

  2. Bill Cruickshank

    This poll reflects what YES activists are finding on the doorstep and actually might be a rather conservative estimate of where the YES vote is at the moment. YES activists are finding canvass returns of 70+ for YES in Scotland’s housing schemes and poorer areas. It is also interesting to note that an excellent pro-indy speech given by Tommy Sheridan about three weeks ago has already had just short of 70,000 hits on U tube. It is amusing and at times disturbing to hear some of the ill informed comment coming from south of the border. Most of the abuse directed at SNP politicians and YES voters has been childish name calling, but some has been racist.
    Anyone living in Scotland would surely agree that the country is changing fast. There is a new vibrancy and self confidence on the streets. The British Establishment are panicking and the bookies have dropped their odds from 12/1 to 3/1 on a YES vote. I am in no doubt that Scotland will vote YES.

  3. Alec

    This poll reflects what YES activists are finding on the doorstep and actually might be a rather conservative estimate of where the YES vote is at the moment.

    No it doesn’t. See below.

    YES activists are finding canvass returns of 70+ for YES in Scotland’s housing schemes and poorer areas.

    Links?

    ~alec

  4. Bill Cruickshank

    I am a YES activist and I talk to other activists and this is what we are finding on the doorsteps and the streets. It makes no odds to me whether you believe what I am saying or not, We have a pretty good idea of which way the debate is running, the momentum is building for YES.

  5. Alec

    That’s very good for you. I am pleased that you have a hobby and likeminded friends.

    You’re right, I don’t believe what you’re saying… not least because the opinion poll you’re citing in support of it cannot be taken to demonstrate what you say it does.

    Can you provide a credible link to substantiate your claims, or are you making it up?

    ~alec

  6. Bill Cruickshank

    No probs as I say it makes no odds to me. You should look at Tommy’s video on U tube though, you might learn something.

  7. Bill Cruickshank

    No probs as I say it makes no odds to me. You should look at Tommy’s video on U tube though, you might learn something.

  8. Alec

    You utter fraud. You don’t have anything to back this up, do you?

    ~alec

  9. uglyfatbloke

    The bookies are n’t always right, OTH there is some doubt about the validity of sampling methodology. There are n’t so many old people in Scotland as thee are across the UK as a whole, so all the polling is a little bit less secure than we might generally expect. Generally, a rise in ‘yes’ was probably to be expected since poll ratings often converge to some degree as the polling date approaches, but I think there is an argument that some of the convergence we’ve seen recently is more to do with the exceptional incompetence of Better Together than anything else.

  10. Bill Cruickshank

    Calling me a fraud lends little to the discussion. Unfortunately name calling seems to be the standard response from a very panicky Brit Establishment, who are relying on a very inept so called Better Together campaign to save their union. The fact is even if I had the canvas returns in my possession, I wouldn’t be posting them on here. No one is asking you to believe me and you are entitled to your opinion, however name calling only weakens your argument.

  11. Bill Cruickshank

    Bookies odds show where the money is going and at the moment the odds have shortened dramatically in favour of YES. Polls in Scotland are notoriously useless. Only one spotted the SNP landslide in 2011 and that was in the last 10 days. Point I was making is that the trend is towards YES. Activists like me are well pleased with reception we are receiving on the ground. I have canvassed etc. for the SNP for over 40 years and never seen anything like it. This is partly because people are realising that we are not in an election, it is a referendum and that we are voting for the future of our country. I suppose many on here will choose to ignore or disbelieve what I am saying and that is their choice. All I am doing is reporting what I am hearing and seeing every day.

  12. Alec

    It adds more to the discussion than you are offering, because it’s a response to your being a fraud.

    You must be a delight on the doorsteps:

    Member of the Public: I don’t believe you. I am going to vote NO.

    Platitudinous Fraud: It makes no odds to me whether you believe what I am saying or not, Goodbye, I’m off to find someone else to speak to me in my echo chamber.

    Of course, if you do have a pretty good idea of which way the debate is running, you’d be able to cite verifiable reports and reproducible results instead of vague anecdote about what someone you know told you.

    You haven’t. In fact, you’ve explicitly refused to. My guess is that this is because you are a fraud.

    And, why should I listen to anything Tommy “King Louie” Sheridan says? The man is more of a fraud that you… he’s a lying liar who singlehandedly derailed a genuine popular socialist movement which had a real chance of involvement in Government.

    Frauds citing frauds.

    ~alec

  13. Alec

    Oh good, now you’re being specific. Which bookies?

    ~alec

  14. Matthew Blott

    To be fair to Alec, you’ve repeatedly been asked to provide evidence that amounts to more than people you’ve spoken to and haven’t come up with anything.

  15. Alec

    Oh, that’s the nicest thing anyone’s ever said to me!

    ~alec

  16. Bill Cruickshank

    Last word from me. I really don’t see the point of ranting like that. You have your opinion I have mine. Let’s leave it at that and not resort to abuse. I am not a betting man, but I believe the odds I quoted can be found on Oddschecker. Good night and good luck.

  17. Alec

    You utter fraud. Pseudo-intellectual tart.

    ~alec

  18. Bill Cruickshank

    Sweet dreams. Saor Alba.

  19. Alec

    Fraud, fraud, fraud, fraudy fraudy fraud.

    You are a bad manner troll. And a fraud.

    ~alec

  20. Maureen Luby

    Oh dear, ad hominem attack lol. Smelling the unionist fear 🙂 Saor Alba

  21. Alec

    Yawn… wankers. Most of Scotland doesn’t speak that language… most the country never spoke it. Racial supremacist wankers.

    ~alec

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