Exclusive: David leads Ed 57:43 overall among Labour councillors


A new poll of 265 Labour councillors for today’s Daily Politics will show David Miliband to be the favoured candidate over his brother by 57 per cent to 43 per cent, Left Foot Forward can reveal. The poll, undertaken online by ComRes from July 23 to August 10, shows David leading Ed on first preferences 33%-26%, with Diane Abbott third on 21 per cent, Andy Burnham fourth with 12 per cent, and Ed Balls last on 8 per cent.

David-MilibandThe results in full are:

First preference votes:
88 (33%) David Miliband
69 (26%) Ed Miliband
55 (21%) Diane Abbott
33 (12%) Andy Burnham
20 (8%) Ed Balls

Elimination round 1:
96 (36%) David Miliband
74 (28%) Ed Miliband
62 (23%) Diane Abbott
33 (12%) Andy Burnham
1st eliminated — Ed Balls

Elimination round 2:
110 (42%) David Miliband
82 (31%) Ed Miliband
73 (28%) Diane Abbott
2nd eliminated — Andy Burnham
1st eliminated — Ed Balls

Elimination round 3:
152 (57%) David Miliband
113 (43%) Ed Miliband
3rd eliminated — Diane Abbott
2nd eliminated — Andy Burnham
1st eliminated — Ed Balls

The results will be unveiled live on today’s Daily Politics, at 12 noon on BBC Two, on which shadow Chancellor Alistair Darling – who is backing David Miliband – will be the guest.

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  • Joanne Milligan

    On these figures, a number of assumptions/claims made by many others about where 2nd and subsequent preferences will fall are confounded. This is, of course, a very small sample and I appreciate that, as they’re councillors, this is a ‘very engaged’ group of Labour party members who listed complete 1 to 5 preferences. However, the results of where transfers go on each round is very instructive. To save others getting the calculators out:
    EB’s 20 Ist preferences
    DM picks up 8 (40%); DA picks up 7 (35%); EM picks up 5 (25%); and AB picks up none.
    AB’s 33 1st preferences (no transfers so all 1st’s)
    DM picks up 14 (42.42%); DA picks up 11 (33.33%); EM picks up 8 (24.24%).
    DA’s 73 1st and subsequent preferences
    DM picks up 42 (57.53%); EM picks up 31 (42.47%)

    While all of the stats show DM having a clear lead on transfers (not just totals) in each round, the most interesting breakdown is the last one. Not solely because it’s the run-off vote between DM and EM but also because it’s the breakdown of those that supported Diane, above DM and EM in their preferences, and where their subsequent transferrable preference goes.

    Will be interesting to see if the final member part of the electoral college reflects these kind of preferences.

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  • http://www.order-order.com Guido Fawkes

    Ta, just lifted David Miliband at the bookies. He has moved heavily

    https://smarkets.com/politics/uk/official-labour-candidates/members-favourite?sma=mf2r

  • paul barker

    The thing that surprised me was the high level of support for DA, very different to most predictions of her backing among MPs.

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