Can Europe’s progressives hold back the far right in 2027?

It’s not been a bad year for progressives.

April saw Hungary’s long-serving prime minister Viktor Orbán and his far-right Fidesz party lose power after 16 years. In October, a grassroots student-led opposition movement in Serbia unseated long-serving leader Aleksandar Vučić and his right-wing populist Serbian Progressive Party after 14 years.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s president Lula defeated far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, prompting celebrations among progressive politicians who regard the result as important not only for Brazil but for the wider struggle over progressive politics. In Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party failed to secure a majority, with record turnout among Arab citizens helping to strengthen the opposition.

Then came the US midterm elections, in which the Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress and made gains in traditionally Republican territory, including Texas, Kansas and by a whisker, Mississippi.

“The US results should give confidence to progressives everywhere,” said former shadow chancellor John McDonnell.

There is certainly plenty to celebrate. But progressive victories are never guaranteed to last and Europe is approaching a particularly consequential electoral cycle.

“The far right has been a problem for Europe for more than a decade,” says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. “But the problem is getting worse. It is going to be harder to find a way to work around, as the EU did with Viktor Orbán. It is going to be more systematic and serious.”

With elections approaching in Spain, France, Poland, Italy, Finland, Estonia, Greece and Slovakia, 2027 could reshape Europe’s political landscape.

The concern isn’t just that nationalist and far-right parties could make further gains. Centre-right parties are increasingly willing to share power with them, while centre-left parties are moving rightwards on issues such as immigration in an attempt to win back voters.

The question is whether Europe is heading for a political earthquake, with far-right parties entering government or strengthening their grip on power in some of its most influential countries.

Pedro Sánchez’s political survival test

Spain is first into the electoral firing line, with a snap election scheduled for November 29. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called it after the conservative People’s Party (PP), far-right Vox and Catalan pro-independence party Junts blocked his major housing reform package in parliament in September.

Despite Sánchez’s reputation for political survival, the latest polling suggests he faces a difficult contest. His career has been defined by repeated comebacks, including his forced resignation as PSOE leader in 2016, his extraordinary return to the party leadership in 2017 and his subsequent ability to forge unlikely parliamentary alliances to remain in power. But even his formidable political resilience may not be enough this time.

The PP is polling ahead of Sánchez but require support from Vox to secure a parliamentary majority. Meanwhile, the left’s prospects have been weakened by the failure of far-left parties to agree on a common electoral list. The resulting fragmentation risks splitting the progressive vote and weakening mobilisation around housing, social justice and opposition to the far right.

A right-wing victory would have consequences well beyond a change of government. It could reverse some of Spain’s progressive policies, bringing tougher immigration measures, tighter border controls and restrictions on irregular migration.

That would threaten one of Spain’s most distinctive departures from Europe’s increasingly anti-immigration politics. Its relatively open migration policies have helped address labour shortages and support economic growth by enabling migrants to contribute to the workforce and wider society. Indeed, the Economist named Spain the world’s best-performing economy in 2024.

Climate policy could also take a hit. Under Sánchez, Spain has become a leading advocate of the green transition, backed by substantial EU funding and regulatory reforms. Vox, meanwhile, has called for elements of the European Green Deal to be dismantled. A change of government could therefore undermine Spain’s climate ambitions and its influence over European environmental policy.

Foreign policy could shift, too. Sánchez’s criticism of Israel over the war in Gaza has distinguished Spain from other European governments. A right-wing coalition could move towards a more traditionally pro-Israel position and closer ties with international conservative and nationalist movements.

Yet Sánchez’s predicament offers a wider lesson for progressives.

As Paolo Gerbaudo, senior researcher at the faculty of political science and sociology at Complutense University in Madrid, observes: “A thriving economy, a model green transition, social advances – Spain’s PM shouldn’t be in trouble. Yet he is, and it’s a lesson for progressives everywhere.”

Policy achievements alone don’t guarantee political support. Economic growth and social reform matter, but voters also need to see and feel the difference in their everyday lives, especially on housing costs which are becoming the defining issue beyond Spain.

If Sánchez’s latest gamble fails, it could mark a turning point in Europe’s political direction.

France’s political centre in danger of collapse

France is equally worrying. Recent polling suggests that far-right leader Marine Le Pen and hard-left rival Jean-Luc Mélenchon are consolidating their positions ahead of next year’s presidential election.

As Reuters has observed, Emmanuel Macron’s second and final presidential term is drawing to a close, leaving behind an unpopular presidency, a weakened political centre and a fragile economy. That creates fertile ground for political extremes to exploit public discontent.

A far-right breakthrough in one of the EU’s most powerful founding members would have enormous implications for the bloc, particularly if accompanied by nationalist advances elsewhere.

The nationalist challenge grows in Italy and Poland

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni may also face pressure from further to the right. Recent polling suggests the nationalist prime minister could be forced to consider an alliance with the newly formed hard-right National Future, led by pro-Russian former army general Roberto Vannacci, who was suspended from active military service after publishing a book containing anti-immigrant, anti-feminist and homophobic remarks.

“Meloni faces pact with devil to stay in power,” splashed the Telegraph earlier this year. 

Poland, meanwhile, is also experiencing a far-right surge ahead of its next election. The gains threaten to undermine the liberal-left coalition led by Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, which ended eight years of Law and Justice (PiS) rule in 2023.

Disillusionment with PiS’s compromises with the EU has pushed some right-wing voters towards more radical alternatives. Konfederacja (Confederation), a libertarian-leaning hard-right coalition, has attracted support, particularly among younger voters and men, with its anti-establishment, tax-cutting messaging and opposition to EU regulations.

Even further to the right, the Confederation of the Polish Crown (KKP), led by extremist MEP Grzegorz Braun, openly advocates Poland’s withdrawal from the European Union, a Polexit, and promotes an even more radical nationalist agenda.

Recent polling puts the combined support of four right-wing parties at 47%, potentially placing them in a position to challenge the current governing coalition.

The consequences would extend well beyond Poland. A government committed to confronting the EU, or even leaving it, would pose a serious challenge to European unity at a time of mounting economic, geopolitical and security pressures.

And the shift is not confined to countries governed by the right. Centre-left governments in Denmark, Sweden and the UK have also adopted tougher positions on immigration and integration, showing how far the political centre ground has moved.

This wider shift presents a challenge for advocates of closer UK-EU relations. Andy Burnham has been opening the door to a more ambitious relationship with Europe, but he could find himself making that case at an awkward moment.

While Britain increasingly recognises the economic costs of Brexit, nationalist and Eurosceptic movements elsewhere are questioning the EU’s authority and, in some cases, advocating withdrawal altogether. Poland’s Polexit movement is one example, while France’s increasingly polarised politics could further destabilise the bloc.
A defining year for Europe

The flurry of elections in 2027 could affect the EU even before the votes are counted. Governments preoccupied with domestic campaigns may become less willing to compromise on contentious European issues, including the EU budget, for fear of being accused of sacrificing national interests.

 “It is pretty extraordinary that these elections are happening at the same time, but also because there are very, very similar dynamics taking place,” Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told the Financial Times.

The stakes could hardly be higher. If nationalist parties were to dominate governments in Spain, France, Poland and Italy simultaneously, the consequences for European integration would be profound.

“I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say it’s the end of the European Union as we’ve known it,” warned Nathalie Tocci, professor at the European campus of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Bologna.

It’s a sobering prospect. But victories in Hungary, Serbia, Brazil and the United States demonstrate that the far right is not invincible. Voters can mobilise and seemingly unstoppable populist movements can be defeated. But what happens next when progressive politicians gain power matters hugely if they are to retain that power long enough for people to experience a beneficial impact on their lives. Today’s volatile politics and fractured lines of communication between people and government make that challenge all the greater.

Gabrielle Pickard-Whitehead is author of Right-Wing Watch