Voters ‘unhappy’ at idea of Reform government could block Nigel Farage from winning power, Hope Not Hate survey finds

Almost half of British voters are “unhappy” with the prospect of a Reform government, and could stop the party from winning the next election.

Recent polls have indicated that support for Reform is waning, with the party falling to 23%, four points behind Labour, in the latest More in Common poll.

In a further blow to Reform, a survey of over 8,600 voters by Survation for Hope Not Hate has found that 43% of British voters are anti-Reform.

Of those, 69% would be willing to vote tactically to block Reform from winning in their constituency. 

However, the report highlights that anti-Reform voters are far from a coherent bloc, and that being anti-Reform is “not synonymous with being progressive”. 

Half of those who do not want a Reform government are on the Left, while the other half are made up of “comfortable moderates” and the “disaffected right”.

However, an opinion they share is their dislike of Nigel Farage. An overwhelming majority (91%) of anti-Reform voters have a negative view of the Reform leader.

A constituency-level MRP projection by Survation found there are 463 seats where Reform is “competitive”.

Out of these, there are 95 “fragile Reform” seats across the country, where the party is three percentage points or less ahead of their nearest rival.

There are a further 199 constituencies where there is “anti-Reform jeopardy”.

These are seats where Reform is currently projected to win, but only because of the anti-Reform vote being split between two or more challengers. 

Nick Lowles, chief executive at HOPE Not Hate, said: “Whether it’s the Burnham bounce or the Farage flop taking effect, Reform UK is doing worse in the polls now than they were last year.

“At the same time, millions of voters across Britain are ready to vote tactically against Reform. 

“Even Reform enthusiasts like Tim Montgomerie are warning that Reform is only strong when its opposition is divided.

“Our research shows that Montgomerie is right to worry: Reform’s opposition can close ranks around election time. Our job is to guide anti-Reform voters to back a party that will deliver Reform defeat.”

Reform suspended Montgomerie, who was a board member, from the party last week after he criticised Reform home affairs spokesperson Zia Yusuf. He had also previously criticised Farage.

Reform deputy leader Richard Tice defended Montgomerie’s suspension, saying internal disagreements should be kept “behind closed doors”.

Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward