Hope not Hate has warned that the poll should be a “wake up call”

Reform UK could win 76 seats in Parliament if a general election were held now, according to new polling commissioned by anti-fascist campaign group Hope not Hate.
Of the 76 seats, Reform would pick up 60 from Labour, 10 from the Conservatives and one from the Lib Dems. The remaining five are already held by Reform.
Even more worringly, Hope not Hate’s survey of over 17,000 voters suggests that with a 3% swing to Reform from both Labour and the Conservatives, Reform UK could be on course to win up to 169 seats.
Labour would still be the biggest party with 287 MPs, down from 402, while the Tories would go up from having 121 seats to 163.
Hope Not Hate’s polling found that 266 seats are currently classed as marginals, with less than a 6% gap between the top two parties.
Furthermore, it found that there are 60 three-way marginals and even one four-way marginal.
The campaign group has noted that “Reform UK’s voter base is not a single bloc—it’s a coalition of people frustrated with mainstream politics, drawn in by their promises to ‘fix the system’.”
The polling revealed that Reform UK voters can be divided into five main groups: 19% are traditional conservatives, 27% are older authoritarian right, 22% are ‘working right’ and support conservative, free-market policies, 19% are moderate interventionists, and 12% are radical young men.
Hope not Hate noted that while in 2024, the average Reform UK voter had strong anti-immigration views, those who have begun to support the party since then more diverse views.
The report said: “This includes a sizeable group who are actually quite positive towards the benefits of immigration and multiculturalism but increasingly feel the main parties have failed and it is time for something new.”
“As anti-fascists, we need to approach these would-be Reform UK voters with understanding and respect. We need to connect to them on the values they hold and on issues we have in common.
“Our polling shows that issues like the environment, workers rights and public ownership are supported by these new voter groups.”
Olivia Barber is a reporter at Left Foot Forward
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