Is the government on the verge of a Customs Union u-turn?

The PM is stuck between Brussels and the DUP and only has herself to blame...

Every now and then, you get a sense that a government might cave. One defeat here, a poll there, senior officials making their opposition heard. That’s how it feels with the Customs Union.

Foreshadowing this was Labour’s shift in February, with the party agreeing the UK needed to stay in a customs bloc with the EU.

This week we’ve seen fresh momentum build for staying in – and for the government to change tack.

This week the government were defeated in the House of Lords, as peers voted in favour of the UK staying in the customs union after Brexit.

This is the government’s first defeat as the Lords begin their scrutiny of the EU Withdrawal Bill. It may not be the last. But the topic is telling.

Then on Thursday, ten members of the influential Commons Liaison Committee – made up of cross-party committee chairs – tabled a motion which calls on the UK government to support an “effective customs union” between the EU and UK. Among the signatories were three Tories: Bob Neill, Nicky Morgan and Sarah Wollaston.

And now we’ve seen a new intervention – from the EU. Senior figures have ripped to shreds the government’s plans for avoiding a ‘hard border’ on the island of Ireland.

Border checks appear inevitable if we leave the Customs Union (goods will need to be assessed and logged coming between Northern Ireland and the Republic) – and yet the government insists they have magical solutions.

The Telegraph reports that May’s plan for avoiding a hard border in Northern Ireland was subjected to a “systematic and forensic annihilation” at a meeting between senior EU officials and the UK’s lead Brexit negotiator. Olly Robbins. “It was made clear that none of the UK’s customs options will work. None of them,” the paper reports.

Growing soft Brexiteer clout in Westminster alongside the impossibility of avoiding a patrolled border between the UK and Ireland suggests something has to give.

Stella Creasy, supporter of the People’s Vote campaign, said: 

“Theresa May’s magical thinking, in her case about the Northern Ireland border, has been fully exposed.

“No trickery is going to get her or her Government out of the hole they have dug for themselves in ruling out continued membership of the Customs Union and the Single Market.

Anti-Brexit campaigners are confident. Eloise Todd, Chief Executive of Bet for Britain, said:

“The momentum is growing on the Customs Union.  The government should heed these rising calls and keep Britain in the Customs Union to deal with the Gordian Knot that they, themselves, have created…

“This disaster is all because the Prime Minister has listened to extreme Brexiteers and put her party agenda above everything else.  She is now stuck between Brussels and the DUP and only has herself to blame.”

Best for Britain are calling on the government to offer a binding Commons vote on the Customs Union at the next possible opportunity.

Stella Creasy added:

“After a stinging defeat in the Lords earlier this week and every sign that the Commons will next week also back continued Customs Union membership, it is also clear that it is not just the European Commission who have no faith in her attempts at sleight of hand.”

This next few weeks could be very interesting indeed.

Josiah Mortimer is Editor of Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter.

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