Poll signals Labour doomsday scenario in Scotland

If this poll carries over to the General Election, Scottish Labour will see itself virtually wiped out.

If this poll carries over to the General Election, Scottish Labour will see itself virtually wiped out

The three declared candidates to lead Scottish Labour will this afternoon be considering the meaning of a devastating poll carried out by Ipsos Mori for the STV.

The polling, carried out during a period which saw outgoing leader at Holyrood, Johann Lamont, resign with a damaging critique of the UK-wide party, gives the SNP a huge 29-point lead when people are asked how they would vote in next year’s General Election.

Of those voters questioned in Scotland who said they are certain to vote, 52 per cent say they will vote SNP, with Labour languishing on 23 per cent. Support for the Scottish Conservatives stands at 10 per cent, with the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Green Party both on 6 per cent.

According to the calculations by Electoral Calculus, if such a swing from Labour to the SNP was seen in every constituency the SNP would pick up 54 Westminster seats, an increase of 48 on the seats they currently hold.

Meanwhile Scottish Labour would see itself virtually wiped out, seeing their total number of seats cut from 41 at present to just 4, those being Willie Bain in Glasgow North East, Tom Clarke in Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Gordon Brown in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath and Ian Davidson in Glasgow South West.

The Liberal Democrats would lose all but one of their current tally of 11 seats, with only Scottish secretary Alistair Carmichael surviving.

Mark Diffley, director at Ipsos MORI Scotland, said of the results:

“The poll gives a further boost to the SNP ahead of their upcoming conference and the formal announcement of Nicola Sturgeon becoming the new first Minister. At the same time it will be particularly unwelcome news for the Labour party after a bruising period since the referendum, culminating in Johann Lamont’s resignation last week. They will hope that this represents a trough in public support and that their upcoming leadership contest will allow them to begin to regain some of the support they have lost.”

With Ed Miliband due this evening to address Scottish Labour’s Gala Dinner, STV political editor Bernard Ponsonby has commented:

“This is the most dramatic poll findings ever to be published in Scotland and underlines the scale of the challenge for Labour leaders both north and south of the border.

“There are only two polls in recent memory which have generated as much surprise, the most recent during the independence referendum showing the Yes camp ahead, and before that you’d probably have to go back to 1992 and a poll for ITN which showed support for independence at 50% for the first time.

“Now it is a poll, not an election result, but what it does is to underline the scale of the challenge facing the new leader of Scottish Labour and the figures come as Ed Miliband arrives in Scotland to address a gala dinner in Glasgow.

“On these figures he has little chance of winning a UK election with his Scottish power base facing meltdown.”

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward

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25 Responses to “Poll signals Labour doomsday scenario in Scotland”

  1. robertcp

    That should sort out the West Lothian Question! The only snag is that who leads the UK government miight end up being decided by a party that does not want to be in the UK! More seriously, this shows that Labour needs to return to social democracy and stop chasing UKIP voters. Ed Miliband realised this for four years but he seems to be reverting to New Labour triangulation.

  2. Bill Cruickshank

    YES activists have known this has been coming for weeks. No matter who Labour elect they are finished in Scotland. Too many folk bitter that they slept with the Tories at the referendum.

  3. tanith

    well enjoy UKRAP if that’s the case BUT YU WILL RUE THE DAY n my predictions are never WRONG

  4. Kryten2k35

    Seems like a silly thing to do to shoot yourself in the foot over the referendum. Labour were not “in bet with the Tories” they just didn’t want an end to the UK, either.

  5. littleoddsandpieces

    Labour campaigning for a No Vote in Scotland was to keep the 41 Labour MPs so as to form a minority government in UK in 2015, with some coalition partner.

    Now Scottish Labour will lose all but 4, which incredibly includes Gordon Brown who lost the 2010 general election as Labour voters in England just folded up their arms and voted for no party.

    So to gain votes and an coalition partner, Labour could gain a landslide victory between two parties in England and Wales, by talking up The Greens and
    giving them sole power over pensions and benefit (replaced by The Greens’ best universal Citizen Income that solves the 70 per cent rise in starvation, mostly in working poor)

    in a coalition agreement.

    Right now women born from 1953 and turned 60 from 2013,
    and men turned 65 born from 1951
    have absolutely no reason to vote Labour
    from the total loss or vast reduction in the state pension coming to them as new claimants.


    The Greens’ Citizen Income solves the problem of private companies contracted to do benefit admin, as benefit ceases to exist and is replaced by a proper socialist


    The Citizen Income is funding neutral as the private companies, much of what DWP does and the end of the need for Jobcentres, would more than cover the cost, which is also offset by the 90 per cent tax rate of the poorest from the 75 per cent of tax that comes from stealth indirect taxes and VAT.

    Right now, Labour is haemorrhaging votes from the core voters that are the poor in and out of work of all ages, old, disabled, sick, and starving in work.

    The cruel benefits regime is the direct reason for starvation in the UK.

    The better the economy, the higher the benefits bill, as the bulk of benefit goes to those in work on wages stagnated a decade into the past, who are the majority of those going to food banks.

    Labour cannot form a government without a left wing partner and The Greens solve starvation and poverty.

  6. Asteri

    The final seal for Scottish labour will be if they elect that loathsome, careerist, Blairite, Murphy as their leader – lets hope they do.

  7. Red Priest

    52% – 23% isn’t going to happen – the poll severely under-represents the Tories, among otherthings…but there is little doubt LAbour are currently in Deep, Deep Trouble ™. The entirely plausible Yougov poll tonight shaves the lead down quite a lot from Mori – but would still be catastrophic in seat terms, quite possibly handing SNP the WM balance of power. Then all bets are off.

  8. Red Priest

    Labour could have run any number of No campaigns all by themselves – frankly, they all but did in the end anyway.

    Or they could have registered the deep divide that became lately apparent among their own voters and allowed their members to campaign by conscience.

    They did neither. They chose the ‘Better Together’ umbrella for access to Tory money. Knowing the utter toxicity of the Tory brand in Scotland, and of Clegg’s personal toxicity. And then going all in on the Westminster flavoured ‘vow’ with Cameron and Clegg, a ‘vow’ already rendered all but meaningless as Labour retreat from any serious devolution claiming they only ever promised a timetable – as if the words home rule, devo super max and federal had never passed Gordon’s lips. And Bizarrely the integrationist McTernan/Murphy/Hothersall wing of the party think that kind of ‘gotcha suckers’ against voters is a winning strategy!

    They’ve one shot left, and it’s the McColl plan. apologise like crazy. Apologise for project fear, for bedding with the tories, for the NHS stories. Self abase till it hurts, then do it some more. And then do a volte face and go for very serious devo-max. Show utter seriousness about accepting Holyrood is now the centre of the action going forward, and act accordingly. That’ll stop the bleeding, and may even have them back in holyrood with a fair wind by 2020.

    But they won’t, because Johann was spot on – it’s a branch office, whose sole job is to provide lobby fodder for Westminster Labour, who are in denial about what has really happened.

    I’d bring the popcorn, if I were you. This is gonna get entertaining.

  9. Dave Roberts

    Could you explain that Social Democracy thing a little.

  10. Dave Roberts

    You are obviously mad.

  11. robertcp

    I would suggest that you look at this Wikipedia article:

  12. Kryten2k35

    Lol “project fear”. Ok mate.

  13. swat

    It would have been a good day to bury bad news, if there were any headline grabbing news to suffocate the bad. But there isn’t, other than the Lib Dems soft on drugs and crime thingy with drugs and crime eating away at the heart of society.

  14. uglyfatbloke

    Swat, as much damage is done by our drugs legislation as by the drugs themselves. We could have moved to a better position if Gordon Brown had n’t been so desperate to suck up to the Daily Mail over cannabis. The result is that people who need cannabis for medicinal reasons are made into criminals. There is a pharmaceutical product (Sativex) which is claimed to be ‘based on’ cannabis, but in fact is simply cannabis oil ( a class A substance) in a spray, but it’s just too expensive to prescribe and is n’t as effective for some ailments.

  15. uglyfatbloke

    Not sure that it does under-represent the tories, but if so, the margin is pretty small.
    I think you’re right though; I’d expect the Yougov poll is closer to reality.

  16. Guest

    Ah, so “people” are bitter about principles, I see, as you try and declare Scotland an ethics-free zone for the greater glory of Salmond.

    Done with the idiotic propaganda yet?

  17. Leon Wolfeson

    Stop abusing single polls with moral hysteria headlines, thanks.

  18. Leon Wolfeson

    Ah yes, more people in private jails, and then private probation, to drive crime rates up. Worked brilliantly in America.

    And the damage current drugs LAWS are doing…

  19. Guest

    Ah yes, it’s “entertaining” to be latently and persistently bigoted against the British.

    You want people to apologise for having moral values. No wonder you think “conscience” means to hate the Other, like your English UKIP counterparts.

    Same tactics, same spin.

  20. Guest

    His views differ from yours primarily in target.

  21. Guest

    You make silly claims, and link a hamas-supporting site.


  22. GWB1983

    Vote Labour get Tory, what does this Labour leadership expect, you cannot go along with extreme right wing policies and then claim your on the workers side.
    Myself, I am fed up with all this austerity nonsense that Labour continue to babble on with, and being tougher on benefit claimants, what a joke this lot are they really do believe we are all that stupid.
    Voting Labour will get me what? more of the same, don’t lose my job because if I do I will be a scrounger and their to be bullied kicked and sanctioned at will because as they claim it is right just and fair, do they know what fair is?
    The general election is next year and if Labour continue with their right wing polices then they are stuffed and so are we I guess, UKIP are not the answer they are more extreme than the Tories, personally am looking more towards the Green Party they offer Britain real hope and have policies that Labour of old would have had – so therein lies our problem.
    Unless Labour start to listen they are going to not only lose the Scottish vote but the rest of Britain as well, and they will have no one to blame, mind you this lot would then claim they have learnt but by then we will all be up creek street.

  23. Bill Cruickshank

    You have my sympathy.

  24. Alan Ji

    The people polled are not yet in a “Thinking about the 7 May 2015” mindset.
    There’s all to play for and lots of work to do.
    There’s always all to play for and lots of work to do.

  25. Alan Ji

    I think it will be called a one-vote stand.

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