New polling: Scots still sceptical about independence

New polling indicates that whilst the Yes campaign has increased its support it still has a mountain to climb.

As Labour today officially launches its own campaign to keep Scotland within the Union, new polling indicates that whilst the Yes campaign has increased its support it still has a mountain to climb if it is to entertain any realistic prospects of victory in September.

The polling, conducted by Ipsos Mori for STV, shows that of all those questioned 52 per cent reject independence, 34 per cent are in favour and 13 per cent are undecided.

Of those indicating that they are absolutely certain to vote, however, 54 per cent intend to vote no to independence (-3 points since February), 36 per cent said they would vote for independence (+4 points) and 10 per cent remain undecided (-1 point).

Meanwhile, in a sign of  the interest now being felt as the referendum draws nearer, 82 per cent of those questioned have said that they are ‘absolutely certain to vote’ – up 4 percentage points since September.

Outlining the battle that the Yes camp now has in the run up to September, Ipsos Mori’s director in Scotland Mark Diffley said:

“The Yes campaign has made some significant progress in persuading the public in recent months. With just over 100 days to go until the referendum they will hope that this represents momentum that will see support continue to grow up to September 18th. However, it is clear that the No campaign retains a healthy lead and, with the referendum fast approaching, there would need to be significant change in opinions if Yes is going to win.”

The findings mirror the latest poll of polls published by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University.

His latest figures are based on one poll by Ipsos MORI, one by ICM, one by Panelbase, one by Survation, one by Progressive Scottish Opinion and one by TNS BMRB and were conducted between 23 April and 1 June. It excludes the don’t knows.

Collectively, they put the yes campaign on 42 per cent and the no camp on 58 per cent.

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