Recovery
Economic update – February 2011
The year 2011 looks like being very tough as tax increases and spending cuts actually take effect, reports Tony Dolphin with the February economic update.
What an export-led recovery may mean for the world
In a downturn, export credits come to be seen as more important than ever, but ECGD needs radical reform if it’s to play any role in leading the UK out of recession.
Economic update – January 2011
Tony Dolphin, of the Institute for Public Policy Research (ippr), looks at the state of the economy as we enter the new year.
Economic update – December 2010
There is a widespread view that future growth in the UK economy will be more sustainable if it is driven by net exports and business investment and not by household spending. The third quarter GDP numbers provided mixed news for supporters of this view.
OBR: Recovery “at a slower pace” than in the 70s, 80s and 90s
Tomorrow’s papers will probably note the forecast that, by 2015, public sector employment will fall by 330,000, one hundred and sixty thousand less than the 490,000 forecast in June. 30,000 of the difference is down to “methodological refinements”. The remaining 130,000 reduction is because the Spending Review cut more from social security and less from Departmental budgets than OBR expected – a different balance of misery, rather than a genuine improvement.
OECD forecasts modest growth for UK economy
The OECD released its latest Economic Outlook today, setting out its forecasts for developments in its member countries. It is supportive of the UK government’s fiscal tightening, describing it as “substantial but necessary”, but warns that it will, when combined with weak real income growth, mean moderate output growth over the next two years.