Labour could lose every single Scottish constituency next year
The SNP’s lead over Scottish Labour continues unabated, according to new polling conducted by Survation for the Scottish Daily Mail.
When those who are undecided and refused to state a voting intention were excluded, the findings put the SNP on 56 per cent of the vote in the constituency vote for the Scottish Parliament ahead of next year’s elections to Holyrood. This means they are two points higher than Survation’s last Holyrood voting intention poll in late April.
Scottish Labour has fallen from 24 per cent to just 20 per cent, while the Conservatives stand on 14 per cent, the Lib Dems on 7 per cent and others on 4 per cent.
On the regional list vote, the Scottish Greens are polling 11 per cent of the vote – more than double the vote they secured on the regional vote at the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary elections. The SNP are on 45 per cent with Labour on 19 per cent, the Conservatives on 12 per cent, the Lib Dems on 8 per cent and UKIP on cent
According to an analysis quoted in the Daily Record, if replicated across Scotland such figures would see the number of SNP MSPs increase from the current tally of 69 to 71 whilst. Meanwhile Labour would fall from the 37 seats it currently holds to just 24, losing every single constituency it currently represents.
When asked about their attitudes to independence, 52 per cent of Scots said they would vote against it if there was another vote tomorrow, and 48 per cent would support it.
The survey found also that just over 41 per cent of those questioned would favour another referendum sometime within the next five years, with just 20 per cent saying there should never be another vote.
Assessing the poll findings, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University told the Scottish Daily Mail:
“Scotland remains politically divided – and Labour in a mess.
“As a result the SNP appear on course to win another landslide in next year’s Holyrood election, but are unlikely to find themselves in a position where they could hold a second referendum with any confidence.”
On independence. Professor Curtice continued:
“There is no sign that the General Election result either reflects or has brought about increased support for independence.
“Nor is there any sign of an increased appetite for another referendum.”
Scottish Labour’s acting leader Iain Gray agreed with the analysis:
“We are under no illusions that the road to recovery will be anything but long and difficult.”
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on TwitterLike this article? Sign up to Left Foot Forward's weekday email for the latest progressive news and comment - and support campaigning journalism by making a donation today.