Comments on: New poll shows boost for independent Scotland

By: uglyfatbloke

uglyfatbloke — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 09:40:00 +0000

The referendum is more likely to be lost by Westminster than won by Holyrood. The Cameron government’s recent declaration that he 1707 Treat essentially subsumed Scotland into a larger and re-named version of England for international purposes was positively crass and (at best) questionable constitutionally…..talk about self-inflicted wounds.

The ‘yes’ campaign is making very slow progress, but they are – overall – making some, despite the fact that so far they have been less adroit than might have been expected. It would be unrealistic to think that they will not get their act together at some point. Even so, complacency is the chief enemy of the ‘No’ campaign. Journalists from the Scotsman appear on Newsnight etc. and are generally seen as being opinion-leaders, but the reality is that the Scotsman only prints about 35,000 copies per day. The Sun is pretty much lined up behind the gnats and the Record’s position is softening. Between them they probably sell much more than 10 times as many copies as the Scotsman, the Times, the Telegraph, the Guardian and the Herald put together. ‘Better Together’ has enjoyed pretty uncritical support from the BBC, but since they are a public-service broadcaster, that will be harder to sustain when the official campaign period starts.

By: Michael

Michael — Thu, 14 Feb 2013 08:39:00 +0000

This poll doesn’t buck any trend. It confirms most recent trends. Other than in one rogue poll in January there has been in evidence a steady drop in No support and a rise in support for Yes and the SNP. The last poll – two weeks ago – had the SNP at 45% and indy at 32 with No support slipping to 47%.

By: y.s. Stewart

y.s. Stewart — Wed, 13 Feb 2013 16:18:00 +0000

The correlation between ever greater Scots antipathy towards Cameron and the Condems and growing support for Independence speaks volumes. Cameron and Clegg et al are Salmond’s greatest asset.
However the Nats are still nowhere near a win.
The Unionists will bang on about the small print (legislative/policy and strategic considerations that would, in truth, involve at least a decade of negotiations before full Independence) and they will emphasise financial unknowns – the Nats will look weak because they cannot answer the detail and because they are beginning to show all the signs of an institutionalised establishment party (complacency leads to ‘errors of judgement’).
Do polls matter?
Well – they do if they’re telling you what you want to hear.