Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to

The city now predicts that Osborne will borrow far more than the OBR predicted Alistair Darling would have. It's time for a radical change.

We know from this morning’s unemployment figures that the government’s austerity programme is hurting – and it’s hurting the young and unemployed the most. But is it working?

David Cameron and Nick Clegg asserted in the Coalition Agreement (pdf) that tackling public sector debt was the government’s ‘most urgent task’. It has been revealed this morning that across the finance industry, the verdict is failure.

The Treasury has collated 14 independent forecasters’ predictions (pdf, p.18) for net government borrowing over the next four years.

Their collected view is that chancellor George Osborne will borrow billions more than the Office of Budget Responsibility predicted he would in June 2010 (pdf, Table C7, p.90) – or that the OBR said Alistair Darling (pdf, Table 4.5, p.38) would have if Labour had been re-elected.

Here are the raw figures:

Table-of-borrowing-projections-2010-2015

At worst, the government’s swinging cuts have stopped the recovery in its tracks, leading to borrowing far above and beyond what they predicted their supposedly profligate rivals intended. At best, with the European and global economy facing such turmoil, the facts have significantly changed since the general election of May 2010.

The current strategy has failed. It’s time for serious change.

See also:

Fast spending cuts push economy from fastest quarterly growth for a decade towards zeroCormac Hollingsworth, November 1st 2011

Unprecedented growth of 1.3 per cent needed for OBR to meet its projectionWill Straw, October 31st 2011

For every extra £4 spending is cut, it only cuts borrowing an extra 75pCormac Hollingsworth, October 18th 2011

Growth cut the 2010-11 deficit as fast as cutsCormac Hollingsworth, September 22nd 2011

Without growth will we even halve the deficit?Cormac Hollingsworth, September 20th 2011

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58 Responses to “Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to”

  1. William

    You mean,bring back the man that abolished the economic cycle?

  2. Anonymous

    But Darling was unaware that the Eurozone would implode so his actual borrowing would most likely have been significantly different to what was predicted in early 2010. The austerity measures of the current government are painful for many people particularly the young, but it is difficult for our economy to grow when one of our biggest markets is the Eurozone. One of our biggest industries is financial services and yet many people want to tear one of our biggest sources of revenue apart. The austerity measures mean that we have not become another Greece or Italy, who are having to suffer much greater cuts in public spending than ourselves. The current policies mean that as an economy we are just about keeping our head above water so that after the pain we will not have a false dawn, but a recovery built on solid foundations rather than the prefabricated one which Balls would give us.

  3. Newsbot9

    Ah yes, the office of budgetry fiddling.

    Also, your comments are badly broken. No option to use another name, your purple background behind everything except the text boxes…

  4. David

    Apart from Osborne being economically illiterate, doesn’t this show that the OBR is a bit rubbish at the end of the day?

  5. Newsbot9

    “The austerity measures mean that we have not become another Greece or Italy”

    On the contrary, shrinking the economy, reducing the rate of tax and the rate of actual tax collection, borrowing more and creating poverty and inequality IS how we’ll end up like them in a few years. The record-low bond yields are NOT the mark of confidence the Government takes them for.

  6. Anonymous

    Can’t understand why you are not applauding Osborne if he spends more. I thought you lefties liked more public spending.

  7. David Julian Price

    Well, thanks to the fact the markets have confidence in us the interest on this extra debt is extremely low.

    Alistair Darling’s predictions were wildly optimistic anyway, just like his boss’s statements. Remember Brown saying we are “uniquely well placed to weather the effects of the recession”? You couldn’t make it up…

  8. Hussain Cheema

    @jaysensharpe @LouiseMensch
    http://t.co/57qVjzD8
    Coalition set to borrow more then Labour would have- Independent experts.
    Explain

  9. Amanda Wilkinson

    George Osborne set to borrow billions more than Alistair Darling would've had to had Labour been elected http://t.co/EPvdxPrB #unemployment

  10. David Kent

    Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to | Left Foot Forward http://t.co/Ldwlqyw7

  11. Lily Fish

    Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to http://t.co/yfRxJwjA

  12. Jay Nathan

    Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to http://t.co/rdw732px via @Markfergusonuk

  13. Matthew Payne

    Osborne to borrow billions more than first predicted, more than the Darling plan. Will his answer be further austerity? http://t.co/wMf7L5qZ

  14. Hunter T. Carter

    Power. Electric sector welcomes hemisphere visitors to Medellin Nov. 30-Dec. 2 for trade show. http://t.co/omJDPIJg

  15. Brnch Sec Ruth H

    Even independent experts say Osborne will borrow more than Labour was predicted to http://t.co/bpkObyIN via @danielelton

  16. UK not performing too well in the GDP growth championship | Left Foot Forward

    […] also: • Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to – Daniel Elton, November 16th […]

  17. David Gillon

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  18. Tomos Clarke

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  19. 2wolves

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  20. Marcus A. Roberts

    Treasury/Indep. experts say that Osborne will borrow more than OBR said Darling would: http://t.co/j8pluFMr on @leftfootfwd

  21. Andrew D Burns

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  22. Trakgalvis

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  23. Treasury vs Treasury on the borrowing gap: One of them’s wrong | Left Foot Forward

    […] on from our report yesterday on the fact that the Treasury’s figures showing that they would borrow more than […]

  24. Adrian Parry

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  25. DBTS

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  26. Louis Rynsard

    its #hurting but its not #working http://t.co/DhyOebMf #timeforplanb

  27. Robert CP

    The figures showing Osborne will borrow more than the OBR projected Darling wud have, come from the City. See here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq

  28. Newsbot9

    It won’ t stay low. The market is only “confident” we won’t grow.

  29. Mehdi Hasan

    Most read this week:
    #5 Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to.
    http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    As seen on the front pages.

  30. Samantha Johnston

    Most read this week:
    #5 Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to.
    http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    As seen on the front pages.

  31. Pete Bowler

    Most read this week:
    #5 Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to.
    http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    As seen on the front pages.

  32. rogersblog

    I’m always amazed that it doesn’t seem possible to separate the recurring from the non-recurring in public expenditure figures. If we did this it would direct us to cut the recurring and increase the non-recurring investment elements of public expenditure.
    This of course would mean cuts in salaries and increases in job creation schemes. It would mean cuts in subsidies and increases in investments.

  33. Ann Lawson

    Most read this week:
    #5 Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to.
    http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    As seen on the front pages.

  34. Karen Buck MP

    Most read this week:
    #5 Osborne set to borrow billions more than Darling was projected to.
    http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    As seen on the front pages.

  35. shane

    One country getting out of recession with more debt is *us*: http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    Even Osborne plan ran a £37bn deficit in 2015 #PMQs

  36. L

    One country getting out of recession with more debt is *us*: http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    Even Osborne plan ran a £37bn deficit in 2015 #PMQs

  37. Pucci D

    One country getting out of recession with more debt is *us*: http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    Even Osborne plan ran a £37bn deficit in 2015 #PMQs

  38. Jesus Fernando Cast™

    One country getting out of recession with more debt is *us*: http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    Even Osborne plan ran a £37bn deficit in 2015 #PMQs

  39. Alex Braithwaite

    One country getting out of recession with more debt is *us*: http://t.co/6IM2aX0E
    Even Osborne plan ran a £37bn deficit in 2015 #PMQs

  40. Christian Wilcox

    @jackclaudereadi This is current borrowing projections: http://t.co/Ns5GadqX. Compiled by Treasury. Due to your Plan A failing.

  41. Whatever Osborne's growth forecasts you hear today, the reality is probably worse | Left Foot Forward

    […] on public spending. Disappointing growth has also led to the coalition expecting to borrow more than Labour was projected to if it had won the 2010 […]

  42. #pressreform

    Compare the Darling and Osborne borrowing projections here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq #as11

  43. Sue Marsh

    Compare the Darling and Osborne borrowing projections here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq #as11

  44. Christian Wilcox

    @ToryPressHQ *ahem* If you can't create growth we'll get this: http://t.co/Ns5GadqX. HM Treasury figures as well… #Croydon #Labour #AS2011

  45. Giles Bradshaw

    Isn’t one of the problems with this that darlings previous projections had proved hopelessly wrong? I seem to remember Brown sayi9ng he had put an end to boom and bust. Should we compare that projection?

  46. morbid_sparks

    Compare the Darling and Osborne borrowing projections here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq #as11

  47. Lauren

    It's confirmed then: According to OBR, Osborne will borrow more than Daling projections: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq #as11

  48. John Nor

    Compare the Darling and Osborne borrowing projections here: http://t.co/XvZ0KDhq #as11

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