Comments on: Without political will for an enduring campaign, operations like Moshtarak remain futile

By: Matthew Page

Matthew Page — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 12:40:27 +0000

I feel it’s a mistake to see British aims in Helmand as somehow leading to a viable stand-alone Afghanistan. The centre piece of that goal seems to be a huge standing army, roled to fight internal enemies so that US-UK don’t need to have troops there. Its unclear how the tiny economy will support it or how the weak central government will control it? Or if indeed that is the intention.
It would be better to be a little more realist and see the UK role as supporting our policy of being close to the US in geo-strategic matters. It’s their war and their semi-imperial project to exert some control over that region. Bringing security and stability to Afghan lives is a means to an end in this endeavour.
Respectfully, let’s have discussion around whether we should be supporting the US project in Afghanistan in this way, rather than kid ourselves that British political will, enduring or otherwise, will bring lasting benefit to the Afghan people. That is not why our people are there, though the rhetoric would obviously deny this.

By: Look Left – The Week in Fast Forward | Left Foot Forward

Look Left – The Week in Fast Forward | Left Foot Forward — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 18:18:29 +0000

[…] as Operation Moshtarak commenced in Helmand province, which Left Foot Forward analysed in detail. Patrick Bury, a former captain in the Royal Irish regiment who has fought in Afghanistan, wrote that, despite […]

By: Politics Summary: Tuesday, February 16th | Left Foot Forward

Politics Summary: Tuesday, February 16th | Left Foot Forward — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 09:21:24 +0000

[…] news of Baradar’s detention comes as the civilian death toll from Operation Moshtarak reached 20. The Guardian reports the latest casualties as being caught in the crossfire and […]

By: Patrick

Patrick — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 15:29:27 +0000

Thanks Marcus, thought you might say that!
Firstly, you are right, I am pessimistic at present and much of that pessimism stems from my opinion that a lot of the solutions being offered at the policy level lack understanding of the complexities of the situation on the ground in Afghanistan. Such pessimism is furthered by my own limited experience of Afghanistan and historical precedent.
Think back to the much lauded Kajaki third turbine Op in 2008, or to Panther’s Claw 2009. The third turbine still sits in Kajaki dormant, and we knew this would happen when we delivered it. And the ground taken in Panther’s Claw has not been held due to lack of resources. Far from being a resounding defeat for the Taliban, they have become a testament to the hollow military victories played out for the media.
Secondly, I also agree Moshtarak is a step in the right direction, but it will need to be followed by many more similar steps all over Afghanistan to deliver any real strategic gains. This is a long distance run not a sprint, and telling our adversaries where the finish line is in such circumstances is the height of folly.
Finally, I think much of the quagmire in Afghanistan is due to myriad inter-related geo-politcal factors that force McChrystal to fight with one hand behind his back against Pakistan’s insurgency. Until these are solved, and at the moment, with the rise of China, they are barely even being addressed, the prospects for Afghanistan do not look good, in my opinion!

By: Marcus Roberts

Marcus Roberts — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 12:52:14 +0000

Excellent piece Paddy, many thanks for it. Whilst I found your analysis of the the way this is likely to play out over short term as accurate as it is encouraging I am curious as to your more pessimistic conclusion. After all, we’ve seen in COIN time after time a surprising upswing in political will after military success has been enjoyed. Without question time and staying power are going to be key, but if security can be established then internal Afghan power sharing agreements become easier which in combination with a newly reinvigorated secuirty force training programme should lead to the successful Afghanisation of the situation in the long term. It is by this means that the long term political and military objects can be secured.

By: Joel Davies

Joel Davies — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 10:30:35 +0000

RT @leftfootfwd: Without political will for an enduring campaign, operations like Moshtarak remain futile: http://is.gd/8q0qE

By: Shamik Das

Shamik Das — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 10:27:03 +0000

Excellent analysis: RT @leftfootfwd: Without the will for an enduring campaign, operations like Moshtarak remain futile: http://is.gd/8q0qE