Demographic expert: Tunisia may be ready for democracy, Egypt probably isn’t

The model does indicate that there are grounds for optimism in Tunisia. The proportion of its working age adults who are young adults is xxx, which translates to a probability of liberal democracy of 0.48, or around one in two, similar to Chile’s probability as it democratised. Meanwhile Egypt, with its young-adult proportion of 0.48, translates to a probability of liberal democracy of 0.31 – less than one in three.