If this poll carries over to the General Election, Scottish Labour will see itself virtually wiped out.
If this poll carries over to the General Election, Scottish Labour will see itself virtually wiped out
The three declared candidates to lead Scottish Labour will this afternoon be considering the meaning of a devastating poll carried out by Ipsos Mori for the STV.
The polling, carried out during a period which saw outgoing leader at Holyrood, Johann Lamont, resign with a damaging critique of the UK-wide party, gives the SNP a huge 29-point lead when people are asked how they would vote in next year’s General Election.
Of those voters questioned in Scotland who said they are certain to vote, 52 per cent say they will vote SNP, with Labour languishing on 23 per cent. Support for the Scottish Conservatives stands at 10 per cent, with the Scottish Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Green Party both on 6 per cent.
According to the calculations by Electoral Calculus, if such a swing from Labour to the SNP was seen in every constituency the SNP would pick up 54 Westminster seats, an increase of 48 on the seats they currently hold.
Meanwhile Scottish Labour would see itself virtually wiped out, seeing their total number of seats cut from 41 at present to just 4, those being Willie Bain in Glasgow North East, Tom Clarke in Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Gordon Brown in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath and Ian Davidson in Glasgow South West.
The Liberal Democrats would lose all but one of their current tally of 11 seats, with only Scottish secretary Alistair Carmichael surviving.
Mark Diffley, director at Ipsos MORI Scotland, said of the results:
“The poll gives a further boost to the SNP ahead of their upcoming conference and the formal announcement of Nicola Sturgeon becoming the new first Minister. At the same time it will be particularly unwelcome news for the Labour party after a bruising period since the referendum, culminating in Johann Lamont’s resignation last week. They will hope that this represents a trough in public support and that their upcoming leadership contest will allow them to begin to regain some of the support they have lost.”
With Ed Miliband due this evening to address Scottish Labour’s Gala Dinner, STV political editor Bernard Ponsonby has commented:
“This is the most dramatic poll findings ever to be published in Scotland and underlines the scale of the challenge for Labour leaders both north and south of the border.
“There are only two polls in recent memory which have generated as much surprise, the most recent during the independence referendum showing the Yes camp ahead, and before that you’d probably have to go back to 1992 and a poll for ITN which showed support for independence at 50% for the first time.
“Now it is a poll, not an election result, but what it does is to underline the scale of the challenge facing the new leader of Scottish Labour and the figures come as Ed Miliband arrives in Scotland to address a gala dinner in Glasgow.
“On these figures he has little chance of winning a UK election with his Scottish power base facing meltdown.”
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward
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25 Responses to “Poll signals Labour doomsday scenario in Scotland”
robertcp
That should sort out the West Lothian Question! The only snag is that who leads the UK government miight end up being decided by a party that does not want to be in the UK! More seriously, this shows that Labour needs to return to social democracy and stop chasing UKIP voters. Ed Miliband realised this for four years but he seems to be reverting to New Labour triangulation.
Bill Cruickshank
YES activists have known this has been coming for weeks. No matter who Labour elect they are finished in Scotland. Too many folk bitter that they slept with the Tories at the referendum.
tanith
well enjoy UKRAP if that’s the case BUT YU WILL RUE THE DAY n my predictions are never WRONG
Kryten2k35
Seems like a silly thing to do to shoot yourself in the foot over the referendum. Labour were not “in bet with the Tories” they just didn’t want an end to the UK, either.
littleoddsandpieces
Labour campaigning for a No Vote in Scotland was to keep the 41 Labour MPs so as to form a minority government in UK in 2015, with some coalition partner.
Now Scottish Labour will lose all but 4, which incredibly includes Gordon Brown who lost the 2010 general election as Labour voters in England just folded up their arms and voted for no party.
So to gain votes and an coalition partner, Labour could gain a landslide victory between two parties in England and Wales, by talking up The Greens and
giving them sole power over pensions and benefit (replaced by The Greens’ best universal Citizen Income that solves the 70 per cent rise in starvation, mostly in working poor)
in a coalition agreement.
Right now women born from 1953 and turned 60 from 2013,
and men turned 65 born from 1951
have absolutely no reason to vote Labour
from the total loss or vast reduction in the state pension coming to them as new claimants.
https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/state-pension-at-60-now
The Greens’ Citizen Income solves the problem of private companies contracted to do benefit admin, as benefit ceases to exist and is replaced by a proper socialist
pre-distribution.
The Citizen Income is funding neutral as the private companies, much of what DWP does and the end of the need for Jobcentres, would more than cover the cost, which is also offset by the 90 per cent tax rate of the poorest from the 75 per cent of tax that comes from stealth indirect taxes and VAT.
Right now, Labour is haemorrhaging votes from the core voters that are the poor in and out of work of all ages, old, disabled, sick, and starving in work.
The cruel benefits regime is the direct reason for starvation in the UK.
The better the economy, the higher the benefits bill, as the bulk of benefit goes to those in work on wages stagnated a decade into the past, who are the majority of those going to food banks.
Labour cannot form a government without a left wing partner and The Greens solve starvation and poverty.