Concerns about the economy won't stop people voting Conservative
Despite the media backlash against Philip Hammond’s budget, new polling puts the Conservatives 19 points ahed of Labour — their biggest in-government lead in 30 years.
The YouGov/Times poll shows that 55 per cent of people agree that Hammond broke a Conservative manifesto promise by increasing National Insurance contributions (NICs) for the self-employed.
Moreover, 38 per cent believe that the budget was unfair and 45 per cent believe that the country’s economic situation will deteriorate over the next year, compared to just 16 per cent who believe it will get better.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be enough to shift their votes. 44 per cent of respondents said they would vote Conservative were an election held tomorrow, compared with just 25 per cent who backed Labour.
While some of the research was conducted on Wednesday, before the worse of the budget backlash hit, the results suggest that this budget will have little impact on the Conservatives’ popularity.
This raises serious questions for Labour, since controversial budget measures present a point-scoring opportunity for the opposition. Last year, in the chaotic aftermath of George Osborne’s final budget, Labour hit 33 per cent, one point ahead of the Conservatives.
See: Poor families’ incomes are about to get slammed – but it’s nothing to do with NICs
See: As wages stagnate and working people suffer, Philip Hammond offers dogma instead of hope
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6 Responses to “Majority believe the Tories broke a manifesto promise – but they’re still 19 points ahead”
NHSGP
After the damage done by Emily Thornbury, Labour needs to get back on side with its potential voters.
The NI fiasco, is one way of doing that.
Labour needs to target the Tories over manifesto lies and make the association with Lib Dems and tuition fees.
Michael WALKER
The Labour Party choses a man as Leader whose background is chequred – to be kind – and who is not competent.
And then wonders why it is 19 percentage points behind.
I wonder why it is “only” 19 percentage points behind.
The trend is inexorably in one direction. The more they see the less voters like.
Meanwhile Corbyn supporters are like the three wise monkeys …
ted francis
Don’t usually agree with young Mike Walker but….. The 19 points does not mean a Tory love-fest is going on: the 19 reflects that there is not an alternative, coherent economics policy available for comparison, nor is there the prospect of an effective opposition this parliament.
Oh where is the opposition leader who combines the wisdom of a Roy Jenkins, the passion of a Neil Kinnock, the political nous of a Tony Blair and the deviousness of a Harold Wilson?
It’s a long time since a government offered the Opposition so many open goals and all the centre forward does is sky the ball or doesn’t bother to shoot.
richard 1979
The main reason is that the Tories broke a promise but that broken promise is rationally understood by many in the electorate. If ‘self employed’ people are entitled to more benefits, which they are thanks to recent policies, then they should pay more NI – regardless of previous manifesto pledges.
This rightist media-generated outrage is a smokescreen for yet another Tory attack on the disabled and to take the attention away from other rightist policies.
David Barlow
There is nothing new in politicians breaking manifesto commitments or promises. Ted Francis, as he no doubt knows, is whistling for the moon, in the leader he says is needed. Jeremy Corbyn was thrown up on a tide of moon whistlers, not once, but twice; no doubt holding on to nurse, for fear of something worse. Corbyn is the prisoner of his own “success”. The Labour Party and its organisation is now in the control of a new brand of political hopefuls, but not something that the electorate seem to view as relevant to it. The “working class” of 2017 does not fit the definition as existed in 1917, or even in 1977, and definitely not as exists in the minds of Corbyn’s inner circle. The new great experiment is doomed to failure, as it exists only in their theory of what they wish for. The political and economic landscape has changed beyond recognition. In the face of Copeland and 19% slippage post budget, those now “In charge” of the Labour Party are residents of something similar to what was once described as the Grand Hotel Abyss.