Poll: Zac Goldsmith leads in Richmond – but he’s not out of reach

Lib Dems must cut through on Brexit in order to win

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Zac Goldsmith would comfortably hold his seat if the by-election in Richmond were held today, BMG polling for the Evening Standard shows.

The snapshot poll of 543 Richmond Park voters showed 45 per cent support for Goldmsith, a clear lead over Sarah Olney — his likely Lib Dem challenger — who is currently in second place with 22 per cent.

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Even these figures would see Goldsmith’s majority slashed by well over 10,000. Moreover, a victory is not out of the question for Lib Dems if they can use issues of national concern to undermine Goldsmith’s personal popularity and record on local issues.

As BMG research director Michael Turner outlines, ‘to win, Olney will need cut-through with residents on Zac’s Brexit stance, and almost certainly, for a large number of Labour supporters to vote tactically in December.”

Goldsmith’s support for Leave is undoubtedly his greatest liability in a constituency that overwhelmingly backed Remain; the BMG numbers give him a lead of just one per cent among Remain voters.

The Lib Dem campaign will zone in on the EU and on Goldsmith’s divisive run for mayor of London.

Labour is set to trail in a distant third, and is unlikely to run an especially vigorous campaign, increasing the likelihood that Labour voters will tactically support the Lib Dems in order to oust Goldsmith.

See also: London might not back Zac Goldsmith – but at least he has UKIP

7 Responses to “Poll: Zac Goldsmith leads in Richmond – but he’s not out of reach”

  1. Mick

    Well well well, so much for the wrecking ball of the progressives’ alliance!

  2. CR

    Let’s make sure that we support our Labour candidate.

  3. Odtaa

    There are some interesting factors:
    UKIP has come out in support of Goldsmith
    Goldsmith’s smearing, sneering Mayor campaign.
    Goldsmith’s support of Brexit and the fact the vote was to leave – in a Remain constituency.
    Etonian Posh Boys going out of fashion.
    His resigning was inept handled.
    He doesn’t have charisma – at best the role model for the boring, nice guy in a Jilly Cooper

    So a lot of Goldsmith’s natural supporters are likely to abstain – I believe this will be substantial.
    Some Conservative voters, who support Remain, will vote LibDem.
    Lib Dem, Labour, Green supporters are more likely to vote – some strategically.
    I suspect there will be quite a few Conservative-Lite + extreme right candidates, who will take away some of his vote.
    UKIP stamping over the election will stir up things in an unpredictable way.

    I give Goldsmith around 50% chance of surviving.

  4. Mick

    Zak Goldsmith has firm support on his airport stance, plus apparently having a good record of looking after his constituents and being in nobody’s pocket.

    Voters can hardly blame him for Brexit, especially after both being on the winning side with the vote also the voice of the people anyway. Also, the Mayoral campaign laid the proclivities of Labour people pretty bare again, which is only an even sorer point because Corbyn is pally with shady people too. (Though when Labour can’t even be trusted to tell the Electoral Commission how much the Pledge Stone cost, no wonder the party’s showing in the poll here is truly pathetic.)

  5. Imran Khan

    Once again Mick, well summed up and another article which is wishful thinking on the part of Labour.

  6. Mick

    Thank you, Imran. Though I suppose it helps that Labour are such an open goal!

  7. Tony

    On the ‘Daily Politics’ show, the leader of the council, Lord True, said that he expects many Conservative Party activists to campaign for him. The Conservative Party officially has no candidate.
    However, in reality, Goldsmith is the Conservative candidate and has the endorsement of UKIP.
    I certainly hope that the Liberal Democrats can defeat him.

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