History suggests divisions in Labour and Brexit could transform party politics
The Liberal Democrats and the Labour Party have always had an intertwined history. The Liberals bore Labour, and then Labour bore the Liberal Democrats in turn.
Having departed from Labour in their ‘Orange Book’ years in the Lib-Con coalition they are now reviving their old act of latching on to the Labour Party.
However, they can no longer approach Labour from the left as they did with Iraq; in the current climate only Trotsky could do that. They are now approaching from the centre, to try and recapture both the centre-left and shy conservatives, either disillusioned with Corbyn or with the Conservatives’ approach to Brexit.
But will it get them back to power in the southwest and in bellwether constituencies for the Lib Dems, such as Cambridge?
If it wasn’t for the Liberal Party, it would be unlikely that there would be a Labour Party or a welfare state. The 1903 Pact between the Liberals and Labour, masterminded by Ramsay McDonald was one of the key contributing factors to the demise of the Liberals in retrospective years.
It was two Liberal intellectuals who were central architects in the formation of our now cherished welfare state; William Beveridge and John Maynard Keynes.
One of the reasons why the Labour government of the 1920s was such a failure was its ardent pursuit, particularly by Philip Snowden, of the neo-classical obsession of balanced budgets. Keynes transformed the Labour party’s notion of economics, by moving beyond this neo-classical fanaticism.
Then there was Beveridge, whose report on Social Insurance and Allied Services in 1942 invited our notion of the benefits system. The Liberal legacy is interwoven into the fabric of the Labour party and the welfare state.
After the Second World War the Liberals very much wandered in the wilderness until the Social Democratic Party gave them a path to back to being germane. The SDP and the early years of the Liberal Democrats under Paddy Ashdown were pitched very much on the centre-left/right faultline.
Tim Farron is trying to revive this age, and in many respects these are very similar times.
The SDP was born out of Labour divisions, was pro-Europe, actively pro-business, and pitching for Labour votes on the centre. In the 1983 General Election it achieved 25.4 per cent, only 2.2 per cent less than Labour’s 27.6 per cent.
Early indications are that history could be repeating itself with a string of council by-elections in solid Labour seats going to the Lib Dems on massive swings.
In North East Derbyshire, a seat held by Labour in parliament since 1935 the Labour share of the vote went down by a whopping 33.2 per cent, with the Lib Dems up 37.4 per cent.
In Sheffield Mosborough Labour lost three councilors in another seat Labour has held on a constituency level since 1935, as the Lib Dem vote went up by 34.2 per cent.
And last night the Lib Dems took seats from Labour in Plasnewydd in Cardiff Central, a traditional Labour-leaning seat, by an increase of 15.4 per cent.
These are Labour heartlands where the Labour Party should be solidly ahead. A trend is emerging and Farron must be hoping that it continues.
The major difference now lies between Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. In the 80s Thatcher was pro-Europe and an advocate of the common market. Now the Conservatives couldn’t be further away from this position.
Farron is trying to speak directly to shy liberal conservatives in the suburbs and the south-west when he declares the Conservative Party
‘no longer supports business, no longer understands the need for calm economic pragmatism – but instead pursues the nationalist protectionist fantasies of the Brexit fundamentalists who have won the day.’
Farron hits on a key weakness of the Brexit fallout for the Conservatives: do they put the will of the British public on Brexit above business interests?
Liam Fox’s comments on businesses being ‘lazy’ offers an insight into the rhetoric that will start pouring out of fanatical Brexiters’ mouths if they don’t get what they want.
David Cameron only just won the 2015 general election. What supported his victory was the Liberal Democrats imploding in the south-west. For Theresa May to win, even after the boundary changes, she needs to hang on to Lib Dem voters.
Can Farron get enough of the shy conservatives and Labour centrists together to seize the middle ground? We shall see. It wouldn’t be the first time Labour and the Lib Dems have swapped roles, and it might not be the last.
Sam Pallis is a Labour member on the executive of his local CLP and an active Young Fabian. Follow him on Twitter.
See: Lib Dems could replace Labour as opposition, says Tim Farron at party conference
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13 Responses to “Lib Dems are winning seats Labour held since 1935. Has the ‘revival’ begun? ”
Boffy
Dream on. The Liberals are deader than the proverbial dead parrot! The two things they had going for them in the past was that a) they could pretend to be more radically left than Labour in Labour areas, and more radically free market than the Tories in Tory areas, and b) they had a core base of activists in concentrated local areas. Incidentally, many of them were themselves ex-members of the SWP and other such outfits, the people who got involved in ant-racist and other such campaigning.
The first advantage of being outrageously two-faced and duplicitous has gone, as a result of their joining the Tories in the coalition. Their mantle in that regard has now been taken over by the SNP and the Greens. But, the second has also gone, because their grass roots organisation has melted away. A large chunk went straight to labour during the coalition period, another bit collapsed into apathy, and has come to Labour under Corbyn, and is being held at bay by the Compliance Unit for having supported another party in the past – a restriction that does not seem to apply to Tories like Sean Woodward or Digby Jones, who can be welcomed with open arms and immediately made Ministers! – whilst another component has drifted into the Greens.
What is left is largely the free market Liberals, who generally have not been known for their activism. The Liberal brand might win them the odd council seat, especially in low polls, just as the BNP and UKIP could win seats in low polls, but that is the most they can hope for. The best thing would be to simply give the Liberals a decent burial and move on.
Martyn Wood-Bevan
I have to agree with Boffy! They may make the odd gain in the odd seat for odd local reasons but I wouldn’t create an upward curve out of it, just yet. In the order you describe the gains are 37.4% followed by 34.2% followed by 15.4%. Plotting those results would produce a graph with an accelerating downward curve. Interesting idea but the Labour party election will have ended, no MP’s will have defected to a party that supported the bedroom tax and increased tuition fees and the Lib-Dems will sit alongside UKIP in single figures for the foreseeable future.
Boffy
To put it it in another historical context, the Fabians, of course, opposed the establishment of the Labour Party. They argued for continued activity within the Liberal Party. Part of the reason for that, and interesting for today, was that they feared the role that Marxists such as the SDF would play in such a Labour Party. So, its not surprising that a century later the Fabians at a time when a left-wing in the Labour Party is again becoming more radical and ascendant in large numbers hanker after a return to their natural home within the Liberals.
Incidentally, it should be reminded to some of the PLP and their supporters who seem to have a very bad knowledge of the history of the party and labour movement, that the Marxist SDF was one of the four founding organisations of the Labour Party along with the ILP, LRC and the Trades Unions. They should also be reminded that when the SDF became the British Socialist Party, it was an affiliated organisation of the LP, as the Co-op Party is today.
When the BSP changed its name to the British Communist Party, they should simply have notified the party that they had changed their name, but it was the sectarianism of some within that party, which led them instead to apply for affiliation as the Communist Party instead, in terms which virtually invited rejection of that application, which led to it being rejected and the Communist Party then being banned from membership.
Even so, the role that Marxists in the SDF and its descendants had played in establishing the Labour Party was reflected in the fact that even after the ban in the 1920’s, a quarter of Labour Party CLP’s in the National Left-Wing Movement continued to allow Communist Party members to have dual membership and had large numbers of Communist Party members within them.
(Peter StJohn Howe ) 'SINJUN'
Wrong Wrong. The Analysis is based on preconceived leanings.
On a National level the Libdems have messed it up big time.
Consider the following :
*The predictions that were made and are being made by Clegg are 180 degrees out on The Economy and EU stability and effectiveness .
*Clegg was wrong but his self confidence and Ego made him a big personality which Farron totally lacks ,
*Any party needs a big character as a leader to whom voters can relate . The lib Dems have not got one.
*The Lib Dems are peddling lines appropriate to the 1970s or before . The voters have moved on.
The middle to left ground has been hoovered up by Theresa Mays reorganised Tories.
*The EU is collapsing and Farron wants a re-run of the referendum , or its equivalent. Political suicide.
small local successes are not necessarily a good indicator but UKIP has seduced very many LibDem waverers it seems.
SINJUN
Tony
One big problem they have is that they rarely appear in the broadcast media. Question Time and Any Questions etc. rarely have them on since the general election disaster. The conference season is an exception.