Strong Democratic performance contrasts with GOP shambles
As expected, we yesterday saw early evidence of a Clinton bounce.
CBS has Clinton going from 43/44 to 47/41. Morning Consult from 40/44 to 43/40 and PPP and Ipsos/Reuters each have Clinton with a five point lead. The averages are showing gains for Clinton of two to three points already, and Obama’s approval rating in Gallup over the past 10 days has gone from 49/48 to 54/42, the best of his entire second term.
It is early but Clinton and the Democrats are clearly getting a bounce.
It is significant that in some of these new polls have Trump hovering in low 40s, signaling that he still having trouble bringing his party together. If he is not in the mid 40s by mid-August his campaign will officially be in trouble.
Additionally, based on the Real Clear Politics state averages, Clinton should be firmly ahead in every single battleground state including Arizona and North Carolina by week’s end.
But could the economy slow over the next few months, and change the current dynamic that seems to be favoring Clinton?
While Friday’s GDP report appeared to signal trouble ahead, as this analysis from Neil Irwin at the New York Times explains things are better than many reported on Friday. And for consumers (voters), things were particularly good:
“The wages and salary component of compensation is now up 2.5 percent over the last year; that same reading was only 2 percent in the second quarter. It’s just one number, but it points to this conclusion: Worker pay is not just rising; it’s also starting to rise at a faster pace. And it’s coming in the form of cash compensation, not being eaten up by health insurance and other employer-provided benefits.”
Given this report, it is far more likely for economic sentiment to be an asset for Clinton in these final 100 days of the election than Trump.
A very good week for Democrats
Last week’s DNC was my eighth Convention, and I think it was the best I’ve attended.
The speeches and talks by private citizens were powerful, the production itself just excellent and the tone upbeat and can-do. It was an extraordinary contrast to the angry mess the Republicans stumbled through a week before.
What we saw last week was a mature, successful governing party, one with a deep set of talented, experienced and well-regarded leaders comfortable on the national stage.
It was a reminder of just how successful the Democrats have been at the Presidential level – both the Clinton and Obama Presidencies left America better than they found it, and Democrats have won more votes in five of the last six Presidential elections.
If Hillary Clinton wins this fall, it will be arguably the best stretch for a political party in all of our history.
This confident, mature, successful Democratic Party took a generation to build. When I got into American politics in the last ’80s and early ’90s, things were reversed – the GOP was ascendant, confident, well led, popular with young people and it was the Democrats who had run out of political and ideological gas.
Led by the New Democrats of that time, the Democratic Party began a long period of modernization and reform that has helped produce the governing and political success we’ve had over the past generation.
Simon Rosenberg is the founder of the think tank NDN/NPI. In the run up to the US election Left Foot Forward will be reposting his weekly analysis of the campaign trail as a UK exclusive. You can find previous columns here
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