Labour researchers rubbish YouGov claim that Jeremy Corbyn is set to win the leadership contest
Last night’s YouGov poll put Jeremy Corbyn in the lead in the race for Labour leader. It drew on a survey of Labour members, affiliated union members, and £3 registered supporters.
To add to the polling mix, the following represents data from a survey of 294 Labour councillors in key marginal seats carried out between Thursday 16 July and Monday 20 July 2015 by Labour History Research Unit, Anglia Ruskin University lecturer Richard Carr.
The previous June LHRU polling indicated below can be found here. Plugging in only these councillor results, the leadership and deputy leadership contests would proceed as follows:
Leadership contest
Round One – Liz Kendall is eliminated with 13.95 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage | % Change in First Preferences from June 2015 LHRU polling |
| Andy BURNHAM | 91 | 30.95% | -4.75 |
| Yvette COOPER | 88 | 29.93% | -0.17 |
| Jeremy CORBYN | 74 | 25.17% | 6.27 |
| Liz KENDALL | 41 | 13.95% | -1.35 |
| TOTAL | 294 |
Round Two – Jeremy Corbyn is eliminated with 25.77 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage |
| Andy BURNHAM | 102 | 35.05% |
| Yvette COOPER | 114 | 39.18% |
| Jeremy CORBYN | 75 | 25.77% |
| TOTAL | 291 |
Round Three – Yvette Cooper becomes Labour Leader with 52.1 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage |
| Andy BURNHAM | 137 | 47.90% |
| Yvette COOPER | 149 | 52.10% |
| TOTAL | 286 |
Deputy leadership contest
Round One – Ben Bradshaw is eliminated with 9.59 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage | % Change from June 2015 LHRU polling |
| Ben BRADSHAW | 28 | 9.59% | -3.09 |
| Stella CREASY | 45 | 15.41% | 2.69 |
| Angela EAGLE | 33 | 11.30% | 3.8 |
| Caroline FLINT | 63 | 21.58% | -5.52 |
| Tom WATSON | 123 | 42.12% | 1.42 |
| TOTAL | 292 |
Round Two – Angela Eagle is eliminated with 12.89 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage |
| Stella CREASY | 49 | 17.07% |
| Angela EAGLE | 37 | 12.89% |
| Caroline FLINT | 72 | 25.09% |
| Tom WATSON | 129 | 44.95% |
| TOTAL | 287 |
Round Three – Stella Creasy is eliminated with 20.91 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage |
| Stella CREASY | 60 | 20.91% |
| Caroline FLINT | 84 | 29.27% |
| Tom WATSON | 143 | 49.83% |
| TOTAL | 287 |
Round Four – Tom Watson becomes Labour Deputy Leader with 61.62 per cent of the vote
| Candidate | Vote | Percentage |
| Caroline FLINT | 104 | 38.38% |
| Tom WATSON | 167 | 61.62% |
| TOTAL | 271 |
Ruby Stockham is a staff writer at Left Foot Forward. Follow her on Twitter
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24 Responses to “New survey of Labour councillors puts Yvette Cooper in the lead”
Foullaini
Straw. Clutching.
hatfinch
I’m looking forward to Falconer et al decrying this result as undemocratic on the basis that “the person who came second ended up winning” or whatever claptrap he tried to put about during the No2AV campaign.
BenSoffa
No one ‘becomes leader’ on this sample. Even if it was fully reflective of all 6,500 councillors (and not just those in the most marginal seats) they make up less than 3% of the electorate.
I don’t doubt it’s informative as to the views of councillors in marginal seats, but it is totally wrong to present this sub-sample as being reflective of the views of all those who will vote.
johnmclarke
This headline is completely misleading. You should revise it. It reflects very badly on the author and Left Foot Forward. It’s clearly a survey of councillors and not comparable to the extensive survey carried out by YouGov.
Benjamin Mackie
And which poll is more credible in terms of scope and size of sample? That was a rhetorical question.