The alarm bells should be ringing for Welsh Labour

With elections to the Welsh Assembly due next year, the red lights should be flashing for Labour

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With all eyes fixed firmly on Labour’s disastrous performance in Scotland and much of England, last night should set alarm bells ringing for the party in Wales.

In 2010, Welsh Labour suffered what was deemed to be a difficult evening. The results at the time said it all. The loss of four seats saw the party take 26 in Wales whilst the Conservatives picked up an additional five to secure eight Welsh seats in the House of Commons.

Labour’s proportion of the vote fell by 6.5 per cent whilst the swing from Labour to Conservatives was 5.6 per cent.

Going into this year’s election, all the talk had been of Labour making albeit modest gains in Wales. As the final Welsh Political Barometer prior to the polls opening indicated, Labour were supposed to be on course to bag an additional two seats in Cardiff Central and Cardiff North.

With all 40 seats declared in Wales however, the results make for sobering reading. In the only bit of the UK that has a Labour Government, led by Carwyn Jones, the party saw itself make a net loss of one seat in Wales, whilst the Conservatives picked up an additional three to return 11 Welsh MPs.

This all comes on the back of results in last May’s European Elections which put UKIP in second place in Wales, less than 1 per cent behind Labour in the popular vote.

With elections to the Welsh Assembly due next year, the red lights should be flashing for Labour in Wales with election results going in the wrong direction.

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

83 Responses to “The alarm bells should be ringing for Welsh Labour”

  1. Leon Wolfeson

    Where you blamed unions.

  2. Leon Wolfeson

    Of course.

  3. Mattwales

    You do strike me as bemused.

  4. Mattwales

    Where did I blame ‘the unions’?

  5. Leon Wolfeson


    …Hopi Sen’s crowd. Right.

  6. madasafish

    I am ashamed of people calling other people “vermin”.

    You make the BNP seem respectable..

  7. Leon Wolfeson

    If you’re going to deny your own posts, then obviously you’re just interested in arguing in bad faith.

  8. Mattwales

    yeah, what was his last election result? 403 seats or so wasn’t it. Sure would have hated to have that result this time around…..

  9. Mattwales

    No. You cant show me can you, because that’s not what I said…..

  10. Leon Wolfeson

    Of course you want to be respectable.

  11. Leon Wolfeson

    It’s complete nonsense. The policies were the problems. People on the left, in particular, don’t *care* about personality if the policies cross their red lines.

  12. Ben Skipp

    How did they appeal to Orange bookers?

  13. Leon Wolfeson

    Yes yes, of course your post does not exist. Nope, you never opened your mouth against a union elected rep, oh no!

    Evidently, as your repeated denials show, you *really* hate and fear workers. Your entire argument is that being Pale Blue is not enough, that they should be even further right…

  14. Leon Wolfeson

    How didn’t they? You did read their main campaigning points, right? You did see them shift right to accommodate Gladstonian views? (The Orange bookers replacing a century of…let’s call it Georgite views and commitment among the LibDems)

  15. Leon Wolfeson

    You are, of course, ignoring the downward trend in the Labour vote. It was 356, and factually given the seat breakpoints for swings, Brown did *better* than a straight-line extrapolation from Blair’s trajectory suggested!

    (Also, no, it was 356…your figures are not close to the reality)

  16. Ben Skipp

    Hoping for Tim Fallon for the Lib Dems, hopefully end of Orange Bookers. I think baring a half hearted commitment to austerity Lab campaign was fairly socialist, personally I’d rather see more socialist, but in terms of getting elected I’d rather see centre left.

  17. Mattwales

    You lied when you said I blamed the workers and you lied when you said I blamed the unions. You have exactly no moral high ground.
    I blamed good old Len *MY* union boss, who’s election would make Hosni Mubarak blush.
    As for hating the works you and your fellow travellers have allowed the Tory’s in, the deepest shade of blue you’ll ever see.
    We lost. And its on you.

  18. Mattwales

    You’re right, that was 2001 not 2005. An honest mistake (you may want to Google that term) Now remind me again. What was the score last night?

  19. Leon Wolfeson

    2001 was …413.

    I don’t believe you, as you have repeatedly denied your own posts, been dishonest, and are trying to argue that Labour need to be even more like the Tories and hence bleed votes.

  20. Leon Wolfeson

    So you said I lied, but then confirmed I told the truth. As you lash out at Unions, and for that matter democracy.

    You keep blaming the left, the people who Labour abandoned, for your party getting into power. You are showing arrant PC bigotry against the left as well as hate and fear of workers.

    You won, go rejoice, Tory. Labour handed you the victory by moving right, but it’s never enough for you, you demand they go still further right, become ever closer to the Tories.

  21. Leon Wolfeson

    I’d suggest that the Orange Book voters went over to the Tories anyway, and that they’ve rather removed themselves. I agree Fallon – who I understand is pretty much an old school liberal – is the LibDem best bet, but…I’m not sure if the party can survive even so.

    (The local base, councillors, is down to under 2000 – down from 2007’s ~4735)

    And…what? Labour didn’t promise anything in terms of ending austerity! They in fact committed and hard to it. They endorsed the welfare caps, the spending cuts, the service slashes

  22. Leon Wolfeson

    Sorry, but I agree with Mhari Black on the reasoning.
    It’s entirely down to Labour moving right – and the LibDems spectacular self-inflicted implosion.

  23. robertcp

    My comments on the above.

    Second paragraph – you are not a fan of Ed Miliband but he is no longer the leader of the Labour Party.

    Third paragraph – I agree that we should not blame voters for voting for other parties. Miliband was, however, right to move Labour away from New Labour and Labour’s manifesto was not particularly left-wing.

    Fourth paragraph – you want to offer the voters something worthwhile, stop a puerile fantasy and appeal across the spectrum. It is difficult to know what this means, which is why I asked about what policies you had in mind.

  24. Ben Skipp

    I’ve been pondering whether the genuine lib dems still voted lib dem, but the tactical lib dems left and that maybe their core support is 8 – 12 MPs.

  25. Leon Wolfeson

    Yes – although I’d call their “genuine” support “tribal”. Also, well, it’s 8-12 MP’s under FPTP ><

  26. Closedshop

    That is all that Lab. really campaigned on “The Tories are Nasty but we are not”. There was no plan outlined. I think the arrogance in the party presumed that the electorate would turn on the nasties and they didn’t bother laying out a detailed plan.

  27. Closedshop

    The Scottish Lab. party was booted out because it stopped doing the work decades ago, corruption at local level, a sense of entitlement and angry public attacks by its reps against the electorate, which is insane.

  28. Closedshop

    Looks like a lot of the working class in England did vote UKIP. There is a real risk that that will increase significantly in the future.

    UKIP established itself as the alternative to Labour in the North of England.

    The results showed that.

  29. Leon Wolfeson

    The results show nothing of the sort.

    You’re making up lies for your party. What’s happened is Tories, the far right and some older voters have gone for UKIP, while much of the former LibDem vote went to Labour.

    Rather than left-wing voters suddenly becoming hard right-wing, your contention.

  30. Closedshop

    I’m not UKIP.

    UKIP are in a strong position to convert a lot of seats in the north of England in the future.

  31. Closedshop

    Just to add as well, respected pollster Peter Kellner says that around 60% of the UKIP voter base would be defined as working class.

    Pointing out that they have a very good chance of sweeping through Labour heartlands in the post industrial areas is just reflecting the results rather than personal hopes.

  32. Leon Wolfeson

    Most of the far right is “working class”. So are a lot of the older people who have gone to the UKIP. So is a large chunk of the vote which came to them from the Tories – along with a richer “polite” set, more “Farage’s people”.

    Personal hopes don’t come into this, at all.

    The realities are the Scottish vote and the local vote in that area.

  33. Leon Wolfeson

    Ah, they’re to your left. And perhaps, but because they’ll draw on the Tory vote.

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