Labour could end up with less than 10 seats north of the border
Scotland’s place on the front line of today’s election has been reinforced by the final Scotland-wide poll of the campaign.
Released last night, the Panelbase poll has put the SNP on 48 per cent of the vote followed by Scottish Labour on 26 per cent, Conservatives on 14 per cent, the Lib Dems on 5 per cent, UKIP on 3 per cent, the Greens on 2 per cent and others on 2 per cent.
According to Electoral Calculus, replicated universally across Scotland such a result would hand the SNP 48 out of Scotland’s 59 seats, gaining 42 on the number they won in 2010. Labour would see the number of seats they hold fall to 12 from the 41 secured under Gordon Brown. All other parties would lose Scottish representation in the House of Commons.
Interestingly the poll finds that 50 per cent of respondents said that Ed Miliband’s decision to rule out any deal with the SNP made no difference to how they intend to vote. 34 per cent said that it made them less likely to vote Labour. Among those planning to vote SNP today, 57 per cent said that Miliband’s statement made it less likely that they would vote Labour.
Among former Labour voters, 70 per cent said they had decided not to vote Labour as a result of the party’s close association with the Conservatives during the independence referendum.
Meanwhile, Professor John Curtice’s final poll of polls for the What Scotland Thinks website covering polls between 29 April and 6 May puts the SNP on 49 per cent, Labour on 26 per cent, the Conservatives on 15 per cent, the Lib Dems on 6 per cent and UKIP and the Greens both on 2 per cent of the vote.
According to Electoral Calculus this would hand the SNP 50 seats in the new parliament. Labour would lose all but 8 seats whilst the Lib Dems would keep just 1 seat in Orkney and Shetland.
Barring some miracle, Labour are in for a rough night north of the border.
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter
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17 Responses to “SNP surge continues in final poll”
uglyfatbloke
Carmichael is pretty safe in Ork & Shet regardless of what the polls say. Other than that, who knows? In a perfect world I suppose we would see Murphy, Wishart, Curran, Mundell, Danny and Douglas Alexander and Ian Davidson all getting the elbow, but I fear that’s too much to wish for.
uglyfatbloke
Carmichael is pretty safe in Ork & Shet regardless of what the polls say. Other than that, who knows? In a perfect world I suppose we would see Murphy, Wishart, Curran, Mundell, Danny and Douglas Alexander and Ian Davidson all getting the elbow, but I fear that’s too much to wish for.
Robert
One can only hope.
Selohesra
Polls say Ed will be next PM – bookies say Dave. Could be interesting – but bookies usually know where the smart money is!
Leon Wolfeson
So which bias factors do you feel the polls are not considering?