SNP surge continues in final poll

Labour could end up with less than 10 seats north of the border

 

Scotland’s place on the front line of today’s election has been reinforced by the final Scotland-wide poll of the campaign.

Released last night, the Panelbase poll has put the SNP on 48 per cent of the vote followed by Scottish Labour on 26 per cent, Conservatives on 14 per cent, the Lib Dems on 5 per cent, UKIP on 3 per cent, the Greens on 2 per cent and others on 2 per cent.

According to Electoral Calculus, replicated universally across Scotland such a result would hand the SNP 48 out of Scotland’s 59 seats, gaining 42 on the number they won in 2010. Labour would see the number of seats they hold fall to 12 from the 41 secured under Gordon Brown. All other parties would lose Scottish representation in the House of Commons.

Interestingly the poll finds that 50 per cent of respondents said that Ed Miliband’s decision to rule out any deal with the SNP made no difference to how they intend to vote. 34 per cent said that it made them less likely to vote Labour. Among those planning to vote SNP today, 57 per cent said that Miliband’s statement made it less likely that they would vote Labour.

Among former Labour voters, 70 per cent said they had decided not to vote Labour as a result of the party’s close association with the Conservatives during the independence referendum.

Meanwhile, Professor John Curtice’s final poll of polls for the What Scotland Thinks website covering polls between 29 April and 6 May puts the SNP on 49 per cent, Labour on 26 per cent, the Conservatives on 15 per cent, the Lib Dems on 6 per cent and UKIP and the Greens both on 2 per cent of the vote.

According to Electoral Calculus this would hand the SNP 50 seats in the new parliament. Labour would lose all but 8 seats whilst the Lib Dems would keep just 1 seat in Orkney and Shetland.

Barring some miracle, Labour are in for a rough night north of the border.

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

17 Responses to “SNP surge continues in final poll”

  1. uglyfatbloke

    Carmichael is pretty safe in Ork & Shet regardless of what the polls say. Other than that, who knows? In a perfect world I suppose we would see Murphy, Wishart, Curran, Mundell, Danny and Douglas Alexander and Ian Davidson all getting the elbow, but I fear that’s too much to wish for.

  2. uglyfatbloke

    Carmichael is pretty safe in Ork & Shet regardless of what the polls say. Other than that, who knows? In a perfect world I suppose we would see Murphy, Wishart, Curran, Mundell, Danny and Douglas Alexander and Ian Davidson all getting the elbow, but I fear that’s too much to wish for.

  3. Robert

    One can only hope.

  4. Selohesra

    Polls say Ed will be next PM – bookies say Dave. Could be interesting – but bookies usually know where the smart money is!

  5. Leon Wolfeson

    So which bias factors do you feel the polls are not considering?

  6. Selohesra

    I don’t know enough of their methodology and maybe bookies will lose but
    1) media and mainstream politicians demonizing UKIP as racists may make people keep quiet about UKIP sympathies – also polls have some weightings for don’t knows based on previous elections where UKIP barely featured
    2) quiet Tories are perennial problem in recent years (perhaps BBC bias has something to do with that?)
    3) Internet polling can have very unrepresentative sampling and phone polling can be skewed to some extent depending how you ask the question which depends on who paid for the poll
    4) This time will be very complicated and need to look at constituency by constituency basis rather than national trend

  7. Selohesra

    I don’t know enough of their methodology and maybe bookies will lose but
    1) media and mainstream politicians demonizing UKIP as racists may make people keep quiet about UKIP sympathies – also polls have some weightings for don’t knows based on previous elections where UKIP barely featured
    2) quiet Tories are perennial problem in recent years (perhaps BBC bias has something to do with that?)
    3) Internet polling can have very unrepresentative sampling and phone polling can be skewed to some extent depending how you ask the question which depends on who paid for the poll
    4) This time will be very complicated and need to look at constituency by constituency basis rather than national trend

  8. Leon Wolfeson

    So, several things routinely corrected for and a complaint polling isn’t valid, somehow.

    Never mind.

    (I’m ignoring the whining about the truth of most UKIP supporters views, and the whining about the government-toe-sucking BBC)

  9. Selohesra

    As I said bookies may be wrong – stranger things have happened. Polls (even compliant polling) has been wrong in the past too though

  10. uglyfatbloke

    ..and I’m not convinced about ‘shy’ Ukip voters. I think they’re mostly pretty loud about being Kippers and may be getting over-represented in the pollsters allocation of ‘don’t know/won’t say’ votes.

  11. Leon Wolfeson

    ..And it looks like the unanticipated factor is the LibDem->Tory shift.

    Labour ****ed away a 10%+ lead in 2012 by moving right.

  12. Julia

    Murphy just been on the TV blaming the SNP? Arithmetic apparently not his strong point.
    Scotland voted for an anti-Tory progressive Party. Had we listened to Murphy and Miliband we would have had a Tory Government again and a selection of career Labour politicians who forget about Scotland as soon as they get to Westminster.
    Perhaps a few of you will now come to realise why Scotland seeks Independence – we are tied to dominant population mass who are right wing (not just the Tory votes, look at the rise in the UKIP vote).
    Even when Labour moves to the right people don’t vote for them.

  13. Selohesra

    Well even the bookies did see that coming – still they were closer than the pollsters! Shame about Farage though

  14. Leon Wolfeson

    Yea, pretty much nobody saw that one coming. Happens ><
    I don't pretend to cry about Farage losing, although I was more actively happy when Galloway lost.

    Can we agree that FPTP sucks the big one and we need voting reform?

  15. Leon Wolfeson

    No, I still don’t understand why you love the Tories so much you want them as neighbours.

    Labour lost *because* they moved right. Your slur towards the left, in the rest of the UK, who have no viable option under FPTP to vote for…

  16. Selohesra

    Yes – i have been a fan of FPTP in the past but think it does not work now we have muliple parties. I still like constituency MP so perhaps need say 500 MPs on FPTP with top up from PR to go to underrepresented

  17. Leon Wolfeson

    I like MMP, which has a few less constituency MP’s compared to list MP’s than that…but details. Your system would still be a lot better.

    (There’s also the AV vs FPTP argument for local MP’s, I come down on FPTP for that, but it IS arguable)

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