Five results to look out for tonight

As the results come in, look out for these five Labour/Tory battleground seats. They could be early indicators of whether we'll see Cameron or Miliband in Number 10

Miliband, Cameron crop



Due to be announced: 1 am

Nuneaton is expected to be the first Tory-held marginal to be announced. The Tories won by a 2,069 majority in 2010, but Labour currently leads by a small majority in Lord Ashcroft’s polls, meaning this is the kind of seat that Labour needs to be winning if it wants to form a government. If Labour doesn’t win here, it could be an early sign that things aren’t looking good for Ed Miliband.

South Swindon

Due to be announced: 3 am

Lord Ashcroft’s polling finds this seat tied between Labour and Conservative, both on 37 per cent. In 2010 the Conservatives won by a majority of 3,544. The seat has tended to go with the winning party; the Conservatives won it in 1992, Labour in 1997, 2001 and 2005, always by fairly small majorities. If Cameron loses this seat it could speel doom for the former Etonian.

Hampstead & Kilburn

Due to be announced: 3 am

Retired MP Glenda Jackson beat the Conservatives to this seat by just 42 votes, and the Lib Dems by 399. This makes it one of the only genuine three-way marginals in the country. Prominent Lib Dem candidate Maajid Nawaz is not expected to replicate 2010’s success due to dissatisfaction with the coalition. Meanwhile Lord Ashcroft polling puts Labour on 47 per cent, the Conservatives on 30 per cent and the Lib Dems on 13 per cent. If the Conservatives confound the polls and take the seat it could spell a Labour defeat in a number of similar seats.


Due to be announced: 4 am

Ashfield has a history of being a very safe Labour seat, but in 2010 the Lib Dems came within a couple of hundred votes in the second largest Labour-Lib Dem swing in the country. Gloria De Piero is defending a Labour majority of just 192 in the Nottinghamshire seat. There is now a significant UKIP threat in the seat; UKIP finished eight points clear of Labour last May on 37 per cent, up from just 1.9 per cent in 2010.

Finchley & Golders Green

Due to be announced: 5 am

This is a symbolic seat that Labour will badly want to win; Margaret Thatcher held it for 33 years. The seat had been Labour for 13 years until 2010, and Lord Ashcroft currently puts Labour two points ahead of the Tories. Labour are expected to take eight seats in the capital, and if this is realised, Thatcher’s seat would be the jewel in the crown as Labour retake London.

Ruby Stockham is a staff writer at Left Foot Forward. Follow her on Twitter

29 Responses to “Five results to look out for tonight”

  1. AlanGiles

    Labour have done well in London, but of course Scotland was a shocker. Elsewhere at 0500 it has been suggested Balls has lost his seat – Douglas Alexander and Jim Murphy have lost theirs.

    I strongly suspect Sunday’s “Hastings Gravestone” event was Miliband’s “Sheffield Rally” moment – a possible victory finally destroyed by the incredibly needy and crass gesture. It cost £30,000 – perhaps given the money he was given for doing very little David Axelrod might knock that off his fee?

  2. Leon Wolfeson

    You really are relentless in attacking individuals for your Tory masters, even now. That’s crass.
    You must be rejoicing in how easy it’ll be to shatter the Union, now.

    And never mind the problem, the policies, where Labour went from +10% in 2012 to this – because they moved right. Repeatedly. The election was Labour’s to lose, and they chose poorly on policy.

    Things like weakening economic rights for some workers legally working because they are recent immigrants, for instance, of course lowers wages because they will be more desperate for work. That’s the way wages *actually* get suppressed by immigrants (i.e. the government works at it), and it was a headline Labour policy. (And a Tory one, of course, but that’s expected)

  3. Jacko

    Hahaha! More like a case of Left Foot Backwards. Or Left Foot in Mouth.

  4. Gerschwin

    Fabulous DC – absolutely hammered you. Nailed you dead. First Salmond’s scalp now Miliband’s scalp. I’m having a wonderful day Leon, champagne, a few tasty treats to go with it. Suck it up Leon – YOU GOT NAILED!

  5. Robert

    Not a good night for Miliband who will resigning as leader now, he has little choice then the battle to get New labour back in as Progress makes it move..

  6. AlanGiles

    I said back in January 2012 just after Miliband’s disastrous World At One interview with Martha Kearney that he couldn’t win. It was obvious he frankly didn’t know anything about industry.

    When Jim Murphy became Scotland’s Labour leader, I suggested that Labour had lost Scotland.

    I said Ed Balls would not be credible as Chancellor. He has just lost his seat.

    I was speaking the truth as I saw it but I was regarded as a “troll”. I have had numerous amounts of abuse from one of LFFs most troublesome lunatics. Dare to speak the truth and you are somehow a Tory. Actually I voted Green: it was gratifying to see at Brighton Pavillion despite Labour’s best efforts, that Caroline Lucas INCREASED her majority for the Greens.

    Despite all that, I do feel sorry for Miliband, who has been badly advised – in particular the “Edstone” on Sunday (God knows who put him up to that!). I think the limestone and the drag queen Eddie Izzard did it for Labour. They were both condescending and insulting to ordinary people.

    I suppose now we will have the beauty parade of the New Labour cadavers, dug up for another leadership contest.

  7. Leon Wolfeson

    Oh sure, that’s another issue though.

  8. Leon Wolfeson

    Keep maundering about your views on murdering and scalping me in particular and lots of other people (I really don’t care, you’re all wind and no action), as you lash out at Pale Blue Labour.

    In reality, I’m saying “told you so” repeatedly to Labourites, who blew a 10%+ polling lead over the last three years by moving repeatedly right – and losing the votes of the left (outside the tribal Labourite faction). The election, as I said again and again, was Labour’s to lose – and they’ve managed it.

    Of course, this election also shows why FPTP blows – Labour actually increased their vote share by significantly more than the Tories….

  9. Leon Wolfeson

    Keep chanting from the Tory hymn book.

    You are saying what you’re told to say by your Masters, as you scream Jews are lunatics again, and you try to hide your affiliation, nastily smearing the Greens in an attack worthy of Galloway.

    As you set up new attacks on Labour politicians, for years more of Conservative Central Office mandated abuse.

  10. Gerschwin

    Sorry Leon, too busy popping champagne corks to care. Now, do you suppose it should by the Bolly or the Dom Perignon? Personally I find them both a little on the nose so to speak, so not entirely sure which I will go for. Any thoughts?

  11. Leon Wolfeson

    …Don’t smack people around the nose with the bottle in the first place.

    As you make it clear you can’t be bother reading other people’s posts.

  12. Gerschwin

    I’ll try Leon, I’ll try….mmm…. nothing like quaffing champagne…

  13. Gerschwin

    Five results to look out for:
    1. Idiot with a stone in a garden.
    2. Idiot in a dress up in Scotland.
    3. Exit polls.
    4. Ed Balls – ha, ha, ha, ha, ha.
    5. Fabulous DC. Now there’s a result!

  14. Jacko

    I’m intrigued, Leon. Are you going to waste another four years of your life on this site, or start getting on with your life? It’s golden opportunity to draw a line under it, get away from your computer, find a girlfriend, improve your career, earn more money, buy a house, and do something with your life. Or is it another 10,000 posts of pointless bickering in the flickering glow of your rented room? Your choice.

  15. Action Verb


    So where in your view has the left vote gone which would
    have supported a labour party closer to its left roots but abandoned it
    following the shift to the centre right? It certainly didn’t go to the Lib
    Dems, and the limited gains by Greens do not appear to be the reason of Labour’s
    collapse. Did the left vote stay at home
    and the Tories were better at getting people out on the day? The Lib Dem vote
    share was decimated, did they move across to UKIP and tories? Who were these
    Lib Dem voters in 2010 who are now veering so much to the right?

    I don’t disagree that Labour were pushed way too far on the
    right, but the results still don’t make sense to me.

  16. Leon Wolfeson

    So you’re making random nonsense posts now.

  17. Leon Wolfeson

    Ohnoes, I have one week’s worth of your posts, Lord Blagger.
    Keep getting paid per-post, as you are!

    Also, my life isn’t yours, but thanks for sharing. You have no idea what I do, of course, as you demand I stop working.

  18. Leon Wolfeson

    Five random spams, it’s Gerschwin, people!

  19. Leon Wolfeson

    This is a first pass analysis, I might be off. So…

    The left primarily stayed at home yes. /Some/ to the Greens. The reality of FPTP is that, though, if you don’t have a party speaking for you many people on the left will chose not to vote but to think in terms of bottom-up action for the future.

    And from what I can see, a chunk of the Tory vote, plus all the far right and some votes from the elderly who are not usually politically active went to the UKIP. But the chunk of Tory votes lost was made up by the right wing of the LibDems fleeing to them – there was only a marginal increase in the vote share of the Tories.

    Labour benefited from LibDem defectors as well, but…only had the Labourite tribal portion of the Left.

    Anyway! For something which ISN’T first cut, but quite well established, if you’re wondering why there’s right wing voters among the LibDems, remember that FPTP means that all three main “parties” are really coalitions, and the “Orange Book” LibDems who were the cheerleaders for the coalition found they fit in fine with the Tories more moderate voters. And they’ve stayed, as it’s clear the LibDems are DOA.


  20. AlanGiles

    You really are raving, barking mad. You wrote:

    “nastily smearing the Greens in an attack worthy of Galloway.”

    after I had written:

    ” Actually I voted Green: it was gratifying to see at Brighton Pavillion
    despite Labour’s best efforts, that Caroline Lucas INCREASED her
    majority for the Greens.”

    Either learn to read or take your brain out of your rectum.

  21. AlanGiles

    You don’t read other peoples posts either, idiot.

  22. Leon Wolfeson

    Keep accusing me of your sins, Gerschwin/AlanGiles.

    You can’t even keep to one account in the same insult stream.

  23. Leon Wolfeson

    “UR MAD JEW”.

    Same old insults from you.

    As you *keep* smearing the Greens with your claims, right. I don’t have your issue of cranial-rectal inversion syndrome either, so sorry.

    You can’t even be graceful in victory, so sad.

  24. AlanGiles

    Do you think you could get iit into your one brain cell that I have only one identity,so I am not Gerschwin. I do not make posts abut pensions being a pensioner myself, I voted Green and you are an ignorant stupid thick fool

  25. Leon Wolfeson

    “UR FOOL, JEW”

    I get you’re lying, as usual, when it’s clear you screwed up your accounts in this thread, and I’m not responsible for your self-hate – or rather, as you’re rich enough to ignore the issues you’d cause for others…

    And you KEEP slurring the Greens. Nasty Party work, for sure, with that attitude.

  26. Jacko

    I can just imagine the scene in the LFF offices:

    Ruby is sitting in the corner, dabbing her eyes with a tissue. “Why, oh why, can’t people see the simple sense of centre-left politics? We only want what’s best for them. James, I don’t understand it.”
    “It was the media,” sighed James. “It’s controlled by the 1% and poisoned the minds of simple working folk.”
    “It’s outrageous,” said Adam. “People who don’t believe in Left wing politics are just evil and greedy.”
    “Or just plain stupid,” pointed out James.
    “Well, yes,” said Adam. “A lot of non-Labour voters are pretty thick.”
    “But the unfairness!” Ruby exclaimed. “We’re got morality on our side. We’re the party of the ordinary working man and woman.”
    “And immigrants,” said James. “Don’t forget them.”
    “And the Tories are just the party of the wealthy, privileged 1%.”
    “Yeah, the 1%,” said Adam. “Those horrible Tories.”
    A silence fell on the room. They stared at the floor in misery. With the end of a hairpin, Ruby burst a red balloon that was meant for the celebration party.
    “How come they got 37% of the vote, then?” she asked.

  27. Robert

    Makes a change from you doing it.

  28. Leon Wolfeson

    Don’t you have celebrating to do at the Torygraph? Also, thanks for linking your accounts there.

  29. Leon Wolfeson

    Your fantasies are sad.

    And idiotic, given Labour broke sharply right and lost because of that. But thanks for highlighting your issues.

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