Comment: Labour didn’t lose the election because of Scotland

Miliband ditched New Labour but, beyond a basket of populist gimmicks he struggled to find anything with which to replace it

 

Labour leader Ed Miliband didn’t ultimately confound expectations; instead he appears to have confirmed the worst fears of his harshest critics. The psephology of the past four weeks, predicting neck and neck polls and a hung parliament, turned out to be wildly inaccurate; in the secrecy of the polling booth, pencil in hand, millions of so-called ‘shy Tories’ braced themselves and put a cross next to a Conservative candidate.

Pundits have been waiting for weeks for the Tory surge in the polls, the surge which supposedly comes with incumbency and familiarity. And it did come, but not until the day of the election once the entire Westminster village had already bet the house on a hung parliament and prepared for weeks of arduous coalition negotiations.

The Conservatives have thumped Labour and David Cameron will return to office with a mandate to push through policies far more extreme than anything seen in the past five years. That’s not to say we weren’t warned. According to a recent report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, George Osborne’s austerity programme for the next parliament will see Britain endure a tighter tax and spending squeeze than any other major economy. £12 billion in welfare cuts will hit the most vulnerable members of society.

Such has been the electoral massacre of Liberal Democrat MPs that the party’s involvement in future coalitions of any sort are in doubt. Vince Cable was deposed by the voters of west London, former leader Charles Kennedy is gone, as are Danny Alexander, David Laws and Simon Hughes. Nick Clegg clung on – just – though the scale of his party’s collapse means he will almost certainly step down in the coming days.

The nearest historical precedent for Labour’s dismal performance is 1992, when Conservative Prime Minister John Major thrashed Neil Kinnock despite Labour holding a narrow poll lead right up until the election. Much like then, the apparent closeness of the race in the lead up to the vote appears to have played into Tory hands, alerting hostile sections of the electorate to the fact that Labour could actually win.

Kinnock, though, never had to deal with a thriving Scottish National Party. Whereas Scotland was once solid Labour territory, today the party looks set to be wiped out. Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy is gone, and this election’s Portillo moment came when Labour Shadow Foreign Secretary and Election Coordinator Douglas Alexander lost his seat to a fresh-faced 20 year-old from the Scottish National Party.

And yet it would be a mistake to claim the election was lost in Scotland. Labour has performed disastrously right across the UK due to a lacklustre campaign that was big on financial bean counting but devoid of vision. Miliband ditched New Labour but, beyond a basket of populist gimmicks he struggled to find anything with which to replace it. He paid lip service to inequality but convinced few people that he had the mettle to challenge it. He zigzagged on immigration in an attempt to please everyone and predictably pleased no-one. As for foreign policy – well, did anybody even know?

Faced with a resurgent Conservative party that will now believe it has carte blanche to hack away at what’s left of the welfare state, the General Election isn’t just a calamity for the Labour party; it’s a disaster for the country. Think more food banks, bourgeoning inequality and a further deterioration of the NHS. Nick Clegg may have been the left-wing bogeyman of the last five years, but we may look back on the recent coalition as a period of civility and restraint when compared to what’s about to follow.

James Bloodworth is the editor of Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter

101 Responses to “Comment: Labour didn’t lose the election because of Scotland”

  1. robertcp

    Floating voters probably thought that Labour made a mess of the economy last time and they did not want to risk a Labour government when the economy appeared to be improving. I disagree with this view but it is not totally ridiculous.

  2. Gerschwin

    I don’t know, I don’t care, you’re out, we’re in and by the looks of things that’s the way it’ll be for a long, long time and possibly for ever if, as someone has suggested, we’re witnessing the death of the Labour PIErty (hope so). Hope it’s not too depressing an evening for you – we’re done with champers now and we’ve moved on to G&Ts. Toot toot!

  3. Kryten2k35

    Osborne happened in 2010, that’s what. And I didn’t vote Labour, but there’s no need to be a cunt about it 😉

  4. Storbritannien_Dansker

    Deny as the news all claims, but the thrashing of all parties bar the SNP, and we will see a fully independent Scotland before the EU Referendum. Theresa May stated that “there will be an entirely new approach regarding Scotland.” The Tories are known as “The Nasty Party” for a reason.

    Dropping 59 seats from Westminster would be a dramatic gift for the Tories, as their lead would increase by the reduction of those seats. Their majority might look impressive, but as many analysts pointed out, the Lib Dems gave Cameron the ability to pass the Reforms for the Marriage Act, successfully providing long overdue Marriage Equality.

    The Lib Dems shielded Cameron from the very conservative back benchers. If he allows Iain Duncan-Smith to remain as the head of the DWP this will push Scotland to its limits. That would end this One-Party Britain bullshit, and the differences between the words that Cameron promised before and after the Referendum showed the true face of the Tories. That is why the SNP has 56 of the 59 seats in Westminster, and this time there is not one Scot that will trust him again.

    That will create HUGE issues within his 12 seat majority. If Scotland leaves, and I would place money on it, Cameron’s legacy will be the downfall of the UK as we know it. And if you think that this will not happen, I want to remind you on how the Tories abandoned Liverpool and the miners in the 1980s. His back benchers will pressure him to do the same to Scotland. Top it off with the price of oil rising, Scotland will be economically capable of the platform the SNP were elected to do, £ or no £.

  5. Storbritannien_Dansker

    Is this attitude going to win support from your fellow Brits? Ironic attitude on VE Day. When will the burning of Westminster happen? History repeats itself. Arbeit Macht Frei, oder?

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