Replicated across Scotland the latest polling would see the nationalists take all but two seats
The SNP surge continues according to polling published today, which replicated across Scotland would see the nationalists take all but two seats north of the border.
The data, compiled by TNS, puts the SNP on 54 per cent, up 2 percentage points since the last poll. Labour has dropped two points to 22 per cent. The Conservatives and Lib Dems remain steady on 13 per cent and 6 per cent respectively, whilst the Greens fall one percentage point to 2 per cent and UKIP go up 1 point to 2 per cent.
According to the Electoral Calculus website, replicated at the General Election the poll would mean Labour losing all but one of the 41 seats they won in 2010, with the SNP taking 57 of Scotland’s 59 seats in the Commons. The Lib Dems would be reduced to 1 seat while the Conservatives would lose the single seat they currently hold.
With 10 days to go until polling day, 29 per cent of those who said they were certain to vote had not decided which party they would vote for. Asked which politician they felt would secure the best deal for Scotland in Westminster, almost half (42 per cent) said Nicola Sturgeon, compared to just 8 per cent who said Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy. At 7 per cent, more people said David Cameron would get the best deal than the 3 per cent who said Ed Miliband would.
Asked which was their preferred outcome, 35 per cent of respondents said a Labour government of some description, compared to 16 per cent who said some form of Conservative administration.
Digging deeper, 21 per cent said they would prefer the idea of a Labour minority or coalition government, compared to 14 per cent who would prefer a majority Labour government.
Amongst SNP supporters, a quarter (25 per cent) said they would prefer a Labour-led coalition government, compared to 14 per cent who would prefer a minority Labour administration. Just 9 per cent wanted a majority Labour government.
Among those planning to vote Labour next month, half (26 per cent) wanted a Labour minority or coalition government more than an outright Labour majority.
The findings come as the Democratic Unionist Party, who’s MPs could prove decisive in determining who gets the keys to Downing Street, has warned David Cameron against the dangerous game he is play on the SNP. Writing for the Guardian today, the party’s deputy leader Nigel Dodds warns that those who support the UK must not be provoked into making reckless statements:
“Take the ‘right’ of SNP MPs to vote in the Commons, or the supposed lack of legitimacy that stems from it. No one who purports to be a unionist can question it. They have the right. That’s why we fought and won the referendum: to enshrine the rights of Scots to go on sending representatives, fully equal to every other, to Westminster. Glib and lazy talk about SNP MPs somehow not being as entitled to vote in every division in the Commons, as any other British MP, simply fuels nationalist paranoia.”
Calling on those in Scotland wanting to stay within the UK to consider voting tactically, he concludes:
“Since no one ascends to or clings on to office by risking the country, this election calls for something beyond partisanship. In Scotland, pro-union voters should, just this once, give very serious consideration to voting for the unionist best placed to win their seat. Brave voices such as Norman Tebbit have risked tribal discontent to urge this, and I urge it too. The SNP is trying to get out of England the answer it couldn’t get out of Scotland last year. No one who believes in Britain should assist them, least of all in England.”
Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twitter
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18 Responses to “SNP on 54%, Labour on 22% in Scotland”
Bill Cruickshank
Talking to my mate at the two pro-independence rallies in Glasgow on Saturday. He is a very experienced canvassers and is working Glasgow North East (Willie Bain’s) seat and the only seat Labour will have left according to this poll. He says that the SNP canvass figures are “miles ahead of Labour”. He said that Willie Bain is already toast!
Jim Bennett
The SNP are being over represented in these polls and the unionists under represented. However, a number of different poll of polls have put the SNP on no less than 42% since October last year with Labour on no more than 32%.
These figures are important because there is a cut-off at 40.5% where the SNP take the majority of Scottish seats and 34.5% where Labour could still retain a Scottish majority. Every point above 40.5% and the SNP exponentially increase their seat numbers. Betfair has Labour on 89-1 to have the most seats in Scotland.
I’m buying my popcorn in for what will prove to be a helluva night whichever way it goes. For my tippence worth, I expect the SNP to have 30-35 seats and Labour on 20-29. I have however put a tenner on Labour as well just because I couldn’t resist the odds!
Leon Wolfeson
What methodological issue do you feel is responsible for the polling issues?
Jim Bennett
Hi Leon,
I’ve looked at a few UK Poll of Polls calculators and they all give differing results, some substantially so. I think that the UK seats calculators have “weighting” issues which are calculated differently and so can give up to a 25 seat difference between Labour and Tory on the same %. Look at Elections etc
http://electionsetc.com/latest-forecast/
and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11565190/UK-election-2015-polls-Labour-lead-Conservatives-by-one-point.html
or http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection?src=nav
The latter two give similar results but entirely different to the first.
In terms of Scottish numbers, play about with this site: http://www.scotlandvotes.com/
The tipping point appears to be 40.5% for the SNP but LibDem and Tory numbers make a difference.
All a result of a bankrupt first past the post system.
Gerschwin
It’s a pretty simple methodology Leon – only window licking morons vote Labour and it’s catching on. Looks like you guys are fucked. Aw, bless.