Iraq inquiry: Minds were made up a decade ago. Chilcot won’t change them

But the delay in publication will feed into the public’s gradual disillusionment with party politics

Come May, most voters will go to the polls and vote for a political party based on factors entirely unrelated to the Iraq War of 2003. This was true when it looked like the Chilcot report into the war would be published before the election and it remains true now we know that it won’t.

Any harm the inquiry might eventually do to the Labour Party will also surely be mitigated by the fact that Ed Miliband’s pitch to the country is based at least in part on his unwillingness to follow the United States into further military action. There will be no more ‘rush to war’, as the Labour declared on the back of his party’s vote against military action in Syria in 2013. And besides, most of those involved in the prosecution of the Iraq War no longer even occupy prominent positions in British politics.

Therefore the idea, as Isabel Hardmen writes in the Spectator, that “voters are now cheated of the information they need to make their minds up in the election” says more about Westminster’s obsession with Iraq than it does about the mood of the British electorate. Outside of an introspective commentariat the country has moved on, and for all the halcyon talk by anti-war activists of a movement which ‘shook’ Blair it’s worth remembering that the former PM was re-elected just two years after the US-led debacle with a whopping Commons majority of 66.

If voters didn’t view Iraq as a significant issue in 2005 it’s unlikely they will in 2015.

And yet what the delay in publication of the Chilcot report will do is feed into is the public’s gradual disillusionment with party politics. We already live in a time when outlandish conspiracy theories are entering the mainstream and when a crankish party of little Englanders can win a European election. Nigel Farage’s appeal is based in part on his ability to point at the political establishment with a Cheshire cat grin and proclaim himself a cut apart. Anti-politics is now the surest entrance into mainstream politics and those who prosecuted the Iraq War with their fantastic claims about WMDs and ‘45-minutes’ must take a portion of the blame.

The Chilcot Report should be published as soon as possible if only to assuage this trend.

The mistake would be to assume that the report will significantly alter opinions about the rights or wrongs of the Iraq War. Minds were sealed and rendered impervious to fresh arguments a decade ago, as was demonstrated this morning when Liberal Democrat Foreign Affairs Spokesman Tim Farron confidently proclaimed that Tony Blair took Britain into “an illegal war in Iraq”.

Why even bother with an inquiry if you’re already so sure?

The best arguments against the Iraq War were never lawyerly ones anyway. Iraq was a serial violator of numerous United Nations resolutions and was perhaps best described by the late Christopher Hitchens as “a prison camp above ground and a mass grave beneath it”. A good reason to oppose the invasion was the fact that the pro-war camp had bought so thoroughly into the delusion that democracy could be dropped from the hatch of a B52 Bomber. A bad reason to oppose it was its supposed ‘illegality’ based on the votes of Russian, French and Chinese delegations to the UN Security Council – governments which at the time were bloating and sating themselves on lucrative oil contracts with the government of Saddam Hussein.

For all his bluster about an ‘illegal war’, I’m fairly sure Tim Farron doesn’t want British foreign policy to be dictated by the economic interests of the Kremlin.

One certainly hopes that the Chilcot inquiry, when it does finally surface, will shed some light on the behind-the-scenes decisions which resulted in us going to war back in 2003. But regardless of what the report eventually contains, you can be certain of one thing: it will be either ‘vindication’ or a ‘whitewash’ according to taste, with very little in between.

James Bloodworth is the editor of Left Foot Forward. Follow him on Twittter

34 Responses to “Iraq inquiry: Minds were made up a decade ago. Chilcot won’t change them”

  1. AlanGiles

    “Don’t blame me” for the delay in the issue of this report says Blair, but does anybody believe a word this charlatan says – especially over Iraq and his servant/master relationship with George Bush?

  2. Matthew Blott

    I wasn’t in favour of the Iraq War but that’s where me, Stop the War and the rest of the “Bliar” brigade part company. The same people that tell me the “MSM” isn’t to be believed are the same people that tell me they were lied to about WMD. The threat was certainly spun (that’s what governments do) but nobody was “lied” to. The spurious 45 minute claim was as absurd then as it appears now – a claim with no evidence. I didn’t believe it and nobody else has any excuse for not treating this baseless claim with the same disdain that I did (unless they wish to admit they are pretty thick).

    I’ve never liked enquiries – they’re expensive and nobody ever agrees with the conclusions. But this one seems particular unnecessary. What are we going to learn that we didn’t know already? Blair, probably full of hubris due to previous military successes, decided come what may he’d do whatever Bush decided. I didn’t vote for Blair in 2005 but I don’t feel the need to de-evolve whenever his name is mentioned. It’s time everyone else grew up.

  3. AlanGiles

    You are suggesting you are the only one grown up, Matthew. The people who really need to grow up are those Blair worshippers who still try to pretend he was right – one of them, Jim Murphy recently became leader of the branch office in Scotland. Blair painted himself into a corner on Sept 11th 2001 when making his speech just after the disgusting promises told Bush in as many words that he would do whatever Bush wanted – the “shoulder to shoulder” stuff.

    Blair’s problem is he still tries to justify his actions and will never admit to any mistakes.

  4. robertcp

    I agree with most of this article but James is not entirely right about 2005. Labour lost many votes in that election, including mine, and its share of vote was only 35%. Can you imagine what would have happened if the Conservatives had opposed the invasion?

  5. Matthew Blott

    Blair left office nearly 10 years ago. He isn’t relevant.

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