Welsh Labour lose third of support in two years

Labour in Wales has lost a third of its support, according to new polling published this week.

Labour in Wales has lost a third of its support, according to new polling published this week.

The data is contained within the latest Welsh Political Barometer, a collaboration between ITV Cymru Wales, the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University, and YouGov.

When asked how they would vote in a General Election, Labour are on 36 per cent, down 2 per cent since the last poll in September.

Significantly, however, this shows that the party has lost a third of its support since a YouGov poll in July 2012 put Welsh Labour on 54 per cent.

The figures  out this week also suggest that Welsh Labour are on the  same share of the vote that the party secured at the 2010 General Election, which in turn was 6.5 per cent down on the share it got at the 2005 election which saw it lose four seats.

The results in full  put Labour on 36 per cent (-2 per cent since September), Conservatives unchanged on 23 per cent, UKIP on 18 per cent (+1), Plaid Cymru unchanged on 11 per cent, Lib Dems on 5 per cent (-1 per cent), Green unchanged on 5 per cent and others on 2 per cent (-1 per cent).

If replicated at the General Election, this would give Welsh Labour 28 seats, up two on their current total; the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru would retain their existing number of seats of eight and three respectively whilst the Lib Dems would lose two of their current three seats in Wales.

These figures would mean Labour would take Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats whilst the Conservatives would narrowly take Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats.

Whilst the data shows Labour clearly the leading party in Wales, Ed Miliband should be considering soberly why the party has made no progress since 2010 in a nation that the party would have hoped could yield more fruit than these polls suggest will happen. It will be particularly concerning given the ongoing difficulties the party faces in Scotland.

The findings from the poll come following May’s European Elections which saw UKIP coming within 1 per cent of beating Labour in Wales.

Ed Jacobs is a contributing editor to Left Foot Forward

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