Should Labour be more cheerful?

Labour looks set to hold a seat in Heywood and Middleton this week, while the Conservatives look likely to lose two of theirs.

Labour looks set to hold a seat in Heywood and Middleton this week, while the Conservatives look likely to lose two of theirs

As the well-worn phrase goes, a week really is a long time in politics. This being so, the next fortnight looks set to feel more like an eternity, with UKIP potentially saving Ed Miliband’s bacon.

Faced by a Conservative party which, according to some polling, is now leading Labour; and following a poor performance at the party conference and now open speculation over his future as leader, Miliband needs a dramatic shift in the narrative if he is to regain any sense of momentum towards Downing Street.

It’s momentum which, over the next two weeks, could well be delivered by the good voters of Heywood and Middleton, Clacton, Rochester and Strood, with good polling for Labour across all three seats.

Heywood and Middleton

This Thursday, the people of Heywood and Middleton will go to the polls to elect a new MP following the sudden and sad death of Jim Dobbin.

Located in the Borough of Rochdale, Labour held the seat in 2010 with a majority of almost 6,000, securing just over 40 per cent of the votes cast, despite a higher than the national average swing from Labour to Conservatives. At the time, UKIP languished in fifth place, behind the BNP, securing just under 3 per cent of the vote.

Faced with growing concerns about the threat that UKIP now poses to Labour, the bookies have  shortened the odds on Farage’s army achieving what would be a sensational victory and one that could be terminal for Ed Miliband.

Faced with such potential headaches, Labour will be cheered by the latest polling carried out by Lord Ashcroft, showing that the party is ‘on course for a comfortable victory in this week’s Heywood & Middleton by-election’.

According to the findings in the seat, Labour are on 47 per cent with just days to go before the poll, 19 percentage points ahead of second placed UKIP on 28 per cent. The Conservatives are languishing on 16 per cent, with the Lib Dems on 5 per cent and the Greens on 4 per cent.

Interestingly, just 17 per cent of respondents said that they were feeling the benefits of the economic recovery, compared to 38 per cent who said they hadn’t felt the benefits but expect to do so and 45 per cent who hadn’t felt the benefits and don’t expect to.

Clacton

Douglas Carswell’s decision to defect to UKIP at the end of August took Westminster by total surprise, re-starting the internal sense of panic within the Conservative party about the threat that UKIP, both directly or indirectly, could pose to their ability to form the next government.

Just two days before what could prove a momentous day for British politics, it is clear that despite the words in public, most serious political commentators and contributors have pretty much accepted that Clacton will be UKIP’s first seat that it wins in the House of Commons of its own right.

Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin, authors of the popular, Revolts on the Right, have said of Clacton:

“This was already the most favourable seat in the country for UKIP before Douglas Carswell defected. Now UKIP has the perfect storm: ideal demography and ideal politics.”

Such sentiments have been backed up also by polling in the seat. According to Lord Ashcroft’s data published last month, UKIP are now on course for a landslide victory in the seat, polling 56 per cent of the vote,  remarkable given that they didn’t even contest the seat in 2010. The Conservatives meanwhile are languishing on 24 per cent, down by 29 per cent from their performance in 2010. Labour meanwhile stand on 16 per cent (down 9 per cent) with the Lib Dems on just 2 per cent (down 11 per cent).

What’s more, Douglas Carswell personal popularity looks set to take UKIP over the winning line, with 56 per cent of those polled in Clacton agreeing that he seems more principled than most politicians and 64 per cent saying that he has been a good MP for the constituency.

Rochester and Strood

If the Conservatives are able to dismiss Clacton as albeit considerable local difficulty, the Rochester and Strood by-election being held a week on Thursday is a must-win for the party.

Brought on by the defection of Mark Reckless on the eve of the Conservative conference, the venom trained on him by senior Tories has been matched only by that which the Lib Dems are pouring on their coalition partners in Glasgow this week. Indeed, Conservative chairman, Grant Shapps accused Reckless of simply ‘lying’ when he pledge loyalty to the prime minister.

Out of all the by-elections coming up, this is the one that potentially poses the biggest political danger for any of the main UK parties. David Cameron desperately needs to hold on to the seat to give a signal to his party that UKIP can be stopped and that their reach will only go so far.

Given this, Conservative HQ will be concerned by the polling conducted by Survation for the Mail on Sunday showing that UKIP are, as with Clacton, on course for a resounding victory next week.

As with Clacton again, having not stood in 2010, UKIP are now polling 40 per cent in the seat, ahead of the Conservatives who are on 31 per cent (down 18 per cent since 2010). Labour remain relatively stable on 25 per cent (down 3 per cent), with the Lib Dems nose divining to 2 per cent, down 14 per cent on their performance in the seat in 2010.

Given the personal animosity of the Tories toward Mark Reckless, if they wanted to accept any advice the polling suggests that making him the object of their fury during the rest of the campaign would be counterproduce, since just 12 per cent of voters in the seat indicated that they liked Reckless. In contrast, 70 per cent said they were motivated to vote UKIP because they liked the party and supported its policies.

The Conservatives will need to tackle UKIP’s message head on if they are to stand any chance of regaining the seat.

Indeed, UKIP’s support in the constituency is holding despite 35 per cent saying that Reckless defected for ‘self –serving political reasons’ and 31 per cent describing him as a ‘traitor’.

And asked what the most important issue affecting their vote would be, with the support of almost 29 per cent of those polled immigration came top of the agenda.

So, if the polls are to believed, Labour looks set to hold its seat in Heywood and Middleton this week, with the Conservatives set to lose both of theirs. Maybe there really could be reasons for Labour to be slightly more cheerful come next Friday.

8 Responses to “Should Labour be more cheerful?”

  1. The_Average_Joe_UK

    A somewhat myopic view. The reality is the surge in UKIP support is a real concern. If repreated across the country, this would result in losses for Labour.

    Is this a rallying call a motivational piece?

  2. littleoddsandpieces

    The surge in UKIP support threatening Labour votes, means Labour has become right wing, as Labour has a massive loss of votes by them ignoring the victims of austerity that simply wipes out business in a recession.

    Syriza in Greece went from UKIP’s few per cent in elections, to sufficient votes to become the official opposition today and could win the next general eleciton in Greece.

    How?

    By saving the lives of ordinary Greeks with their anti austerity stance.

    The Greens should really be the surge in votes, as they offer in their 2015 manifesto:

    – Citizen Wage, universal, non-means tested and non-withdrawable

    That ends the 70 per cent rise in starvation since 2010 from the cruel and oft fatal benefits regime, that leaves huge numbers with no food money, whilst billions are wasted on benefits admin just to leave people hungry, in the one nation in Europe that does not feed its starving every day, 7 days a week, with a free hot meal and hot drink.

    The state pension is not being reformed, but abolished.

    Housewives, divorcees and widows,
    the poorest workers,
    recent immigrants,
    will get NIL STATE PENSION FOR LIFE
    and over 70 per cent of new claimants
    (women born from 1953 and men from 1951)
    will get massively reduced state pension, along with the abolition of Pension Credit

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/state-pension-at-60-now

    If Labour offered to –

    – Repeal Pension Bills 2010-2014
    – Payout women’s state pension at 60 in 2015
    – Equalise men’s state pension at 60 in 2015
    – Bring back link with average wages of UK’s state pension, the lowest of all rich nations in the world
    – Give back the £100 taken off the most elderly’s Winter Fuel Allowance, and given to MPs in the second home allowance rise

    And even Syriza’s election pledge of giving Free Electricity to the lowest income, which would include pensioners on just the state pension or with a low works pension that together is below the basic tax allowance.

    Labour would be surging ahead of all parties far, far more than the mere few points it is today. So why not the change please in Labour’s 2015 election pledges as above please?

  3. swat

    Thursday will satisfy all 3 Parties. Labour will hold Heywood & M; The Tories will hold Rochester & S, because nobody likes Reckless, and the UKIP will take Clacton holding it until 2015, when they will be ousted. Only one of the elections was warranted, the people of Clacton and Rochester should be slamming UKIP Carswell and Reckless for wasting their time and money, if they had any sense.

  4. Guest

    Except that’s not what’s happening. The polling tabs are clear. And byelections are rarely good indicators of what’s happening on a wider scale – the two currently Tory seats are essentially self-selected, while in a simple replacement seat, Labour are up considerably.

    The Greens are nothing like Syriza, though, it’s actually more than little insulting. Their stance on power etc. is very much not in favour of the poor.

    Then you link a fanatic’s campaign site, talk nonsense about pensions…

  5. Guest

    Again, there is no evidence for your propaganda in polling tabs. The seats the Tories stand to lose are, er, Tory seats while Labour are up in the seat they are defending.

  6. Leon Wolfeson

    “because nobody likes Reckless”

    We’ll see. Never seems to stop some other MP’s.

  7. Stephen

    “UKIP’s support in the constituency is holding despite 35 per cent saying that Reckless defected for ‘self –serving political reasons’ and 31 per cent describing him as a ‘traitor’.”

    which only proves that UKIP are an utterly shameless bunch and would vote for the Devil himself if it meant reducing immigration. Hang on……

  8. osho

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/10/08/Exclusive-Lib-Lab-Paedo-Pact-Alleged-in-Rochdale

    I presume that some of you have children. Why this doesn’t upset you beats me.
    And please don’t say Tories are paedophiles as well. If a family member of mine was a criminal, i wouldn’t ignore it by saying that next door had the same problem

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