Will the last person to leave Scotland please turn out the lights

17 per cent of adults say they would consider leaving Scotland if it opted for independence.

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17 per cent of adults say they would consider leaving Scotland if it opted for independence

New polling conducted by Panelbase for the Sunday Times and Heart Radio in Scotland has found that 17 per cent of adults would think about leaving the country should it opt for independence.

In contrast, 5 per cent of voters said they would consider emigrating in the event of the country rejecting independence, with 73 per cent saying they plan to stay regardless of the outcome.

The survey data also put support for independence at 41 per cent, up 1 per cent since Panelbases’ last poll for the Sunday Times and Heart Radio published in May. The No vote was also up 1 per cent to 48 per cent, with 11 per cent still undecided how they will vote.

Excluding undecided voters, those supporting independence are on 46 per cent while 54 per cent reject it.

Responding, campaign director for the Better Together Campaign Blair McDougall dubbed the poll a ‘blow’ to the First Minister. He explained:

“This poll is a blow to Alex Salmond’s faltering campaign and makes clear that the momentum is with those of us saying no thanks to separation.

“The closer we get to the referendum the more people are thinking seriously about the consequences of independence for the pound, pensions and our public services.”

In contrast, the Yes Scotland Campaign used the poll to argue that the country is now within touching distance of independence. It’s chief executive, Blair Jenkins commented:

“Support for Yes is solid and as we move into the final eight weeks of the campaign we will be working hard to continue the flow of undecided voters to our side.

“What this poll confirms is that, in spite of a renewed barrage of scaremongering and relentless negativity from the ‘no’ camp and Westminster government, we are in touching distance of success on September 18. We need just over a four-point swing to put us in front.”

But Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University concluded that the findings were bad news for those wanting independence. Writing for the ‘What Scotland Thinks’ website, he wrote:

“The opinion polls may of course all be wrong. But if Scotland is to vote in favour of independence on 18 September then one would expect at least a few polls to put Yes ahead at some point before polling day. And no poll would seem more likely to record a Yes lead than Panelbase, who have consistently produced the most optimistic polling numbers for the Yes side and which last month (in a poll for the Yes campaign itself) put Yes on the cusp of being ahead with a 48 per cent vote (once the Don’t Knows are excluded).

“But any hopes that Yes might have had that, following its last poll, Panelbase would next time around finally record a breakthrough for the pro-independence side are dashed in the company’s poll for today’s Sunday Times.”

34 Responses to “Will the last person to leave Scotland please turn out the lights”

  1. amanuenensi

    But don’t worry no voters … the English now love to flip flop all over the place when it comes to important referendums on membership…. now they want to redo the EU only 40 years after an overwhelming vote to go in. On that basis you should get a shot at changing everything every 20 years at least. probably best for everything in the UK to go up for a referendum every five years. Calm consistent consensual and clear courses are no longer the conservative way, so if you stay in the UK probably you’ll be out of the EU. What I hope is whatever is chosen gets done like it was 400 years ago and no more referendum on the EU Wales Scotland for another 400 years.

  2. gregqq

    Interesting – I am an Englishman in the north of England with a small business. I am considering moving to Scotland if they vote for independence. I doubt I am the only businessman thinking this way.

  3. mark

    This is a joke? One in five Scots would leave because they couldnt keep the tories as their government.

  4. MarkM

    Another ridiculous headline.

  5. subtleknife666

    You constantly ignore the fact that Scotland can look forward to a decent, ethical, non-corrupt, non-Thatcherite government IF AND ONLY IF it becomes independent.
    What can Scotland expect from Westminster in the future? NuLabour is Thatcherite and terrified of the Daily Mail and the rest of the right-wing gutter press. The Tories are vicious, corrupt, thieving hard-right scumbags.
    Given these facts, why would Scotland want to continue being governed by the right-wing slime of Westminster?

  6. cgdean2012

    Really … All Scottish politicians are squeaky clean ??? Quite a few Scottish politicians work for Labour, Conservatives etc. As much as I don’t like Cameron i would not want Salmond running my country. What you will get is more of the same or potentially worse austerity with a Scottish accent behind the man wielding the axe !!!

  7. subtleknife666

    Hmm.
    Do you think the Labour Party of an independent Scotland would continue to follow the Thatcherite line of the Westminster gang? I doubt it. Scots are much more likely to vote for progressives, and the influence of the fascist and racist London gutter press (Daily Mail, Daily Express etc.) is unlikely to be anywhere near as strong. Also, the scapegoating of immigrants, the disabled, benefit claimants and the like won’t go down so well with the people of Scotland, will it?

  8. AlRos

    Leading up to every United States presidential election, about ten percent of Americans threaten to move abroad (usually to Canada) if the results do not go their way. The number of people who actually do is negligible. It’s easy to tell a pollster that you’ll `consider leaving the country’ if things don’t go your way — I’m surprised that only 17% did given the weight of the independence debate — but this is rarely a genuine threat. I don’t know why anyone would take this statistic seriously.

  9. Eilidh Darling

    I left the US just after Bush was ‘elected’… erm… appointed.

    BTW,
    I’m no expat, an American living abroad with one foot back in the US. I
    came over as an immigrant, and have since become a citizen. All over
    the world there are others like me.

    Just sayin’…. 😉

  10. AlRos

    Of course! I actually emigrated from the US too, and into the UK. I did not move for political reasons, but there are certainly some who do. But if you compare the number of them to the number of people who threaten to expatriate given unfavourable election results, well … ;-).

  11. Eilidh Darling

    Of course.

    That said, over the years many Americans who are still in the US have told me that they wish that they could do what I did, but are tied to the US by family obligations (like elderly parents), a reasonably good job, and other factors, like their own advancing age.

    My motive for emigrating wasn’t so much politics – politicians come and go – but the nature of American society. Politics is a reflection of a society, and I knew that I had no place in that country.

    Bad as I knew Bush would be, I hadn’t liked Clinton either.

  12. AlRos

    I’m with you there. A year over here, and I’ve never felt so at home.

  13. Eilidh Darling

    I’m here over a decade, and I’ve had the same experience, both in Scotland and in England.

  14. Craig Fisher

    You clearly have no idea of what you’re talking about, as Salmond and the SNP have been running the country for the last 7 years, and even after that length of time have the highest approval ratings of any of the political parties.

  15. Guest

    You’re assuming you can get a visa.

  16. Guest

    Salmond is in bed with Murdoch to a greater degree than even Cameron!

    Your vicious slurs against non-Scots really do say it all. That we’re indecent, unethical, corrupt, Thatcherite…how you see every last one of us!

  17. Guest

    Yes, facts are ridiculous in your world. Says it all.

  18. subtleknife666

    I thought it was fairly clear that I was talking about the Tories and NuLabour at Westminster, not the general population of the UK.

  19. zaki

    Apart from the oil, Scotland has a vibrant fisheries, agriculture and financial services sector, not to mention world class education. Human resources is very much as important as natural resources, and Scotland has plentiful of both. This article is poorly researched and does not address the fact that with a population matching that of Scandinavian countries, Scotland is well-placed to thrive as an independent country and indeed perform far better than England! This of course is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to feasibility of Scotland’s independence. So far from people emigrating, Scotland will become a global talent pool, or at least have the capacity to absorb foreign talent as much as decides to immigrate.

  20. sarntcrip

    SCOTS ARE CANNY MOST KNOW THE WAY TO MAKE A POOND IS TO STAY IN THE UNION AND HATE ENGLAND AT SPORTS FIXTURES MY GRANDAD WAS SCOTS I’M ENGLISHA MILLION MILES FROM BEING TORY I LOOK FORWARD TO SCOTS HELPING US DEMOLISH THE BULLINGDON BULLIES IN MAY 2015

  21. sarntcrip

    AND PAST THE MINEFIELDS AD MACHINE GUN TOWERS GOING TO SCOTLAND EXCELLENT WAY TO LOSE ENGLISH CUSTOM

  22. sarntcrip

    SKOOLBOY ERROR INSTANTLY REGRETTED
    ED AIN’T PERFECT STICKING TO TORTY SPENDING PLANS COULD LOSE HIM THE ELECTION HOWEVER HE IS THE BEST OF A PRETTY ABHORRENT BUNCH CAS LOCK ERROR SORRY

  23. sarntcrip

    THEY AIN’T THAT DAFT THEY’LL STAY AND HOPE ANNIHILATE THE TORY BASTADS IN 2015

  24. West

    Agree – whole article rubbish. What a waste of polling time – get a life.

  25. craig miller

    really all the ill informed comment from English onlookers reminds me of the Cinema queue scene from Annie Hall , you misunderstand the motives , the demographic , and the political history of a Country which even the most anti imperialist posturing of you , secretly thinks “belongs” to England as if by right …right wing , left wing you all seem to suffer from an extreme british nationalism …historically very ugly ….the metropolitan polling orgs have NEVER been proved correct in ANY recent Scottish electoral contest in the last 20 years BTW …ha ha ha …oh yeah and Labour are FINISHED in my country

  26. Nograntforyou

    Baloney! No Englishman in his right mind would want to relocate to a nationalist state, under a nationalist government which got there by provoking a racist element in their party. Your about as English as Grant’s Haggis.

  27. Nograntforyou

    I’ve already gone and never coming back. Nationalists are Racist Thugs. The rise of the cybernat is just the tip of the iceberg, these little NAZI’S make me ashamed to be Scottish. The hatred that will be left-over when Salmond’s costly project is over, makes the place a place I don’t want to be.

  28. Nograntforyou

    ‘Support for Yes is solid’, lol yes = solid fail and ‘solid’ = excrement.

  29. Nograntforyou

    That’s garbage! The brain-drain will be a lot larger than 17%. Salmond will have to import another half a million unskilled immigrants to keep himself in power, and to keep the social security benefits intact. He sold us out long ago. It’s not native Scots he relies on to get elected now. He’s a Traitor.

  30. Nograntforyou

    The SNP at Westminster also had their hands in the till when it came to expenses. They are not innocent, not by a long stretch…

  31. Nograntforyou

    cgdean, you got that right. Someone has to pay for this referendum, and all the new immigrants, and to keep Salmond in his FIVE PENSIONS, that’s going to be you and every other already hard-pressed Scot. We are already taxed to death, and it’s going to get much worse. The SNP keep quiet about how much independence is going to cost you – the man in the street.

  32. Nograntforyou

    Really, I put this referendum as a true judge of their approval rating, and with just a few weeks to go, Salmond is out of luck and out of favour!

  33. Nograntforyou

    Spot on! Their vicious slurs are not just aimed at other Britons, but at Scots who don’t agree with their viewpoint. The SNP cybernat line for the last few years has been ‘if you don’t agree with us then leave!’ The last people to talk like that to their own countrymen were – those other nationalists – the Nazi’s. meanwhile Alex Salmond secretely went to the USA to meet Murdoch a couple of months back, and was quite outraged when the Sunday Post asked him about it. So much for transparency… He’s a puppet.

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