New polling: Scots still sceptical about independence

New polling indicates that whilst the Yes campaign has increased its support it still has a mountain to climb.

As Labour today officially launches its own campaign to keep Scotland within the Union, new polling indicates that whilst the Yes campaign has increased its support it still has a mountain to climb if it is to entertain any realistic prospects of victory in September.

The polling, conducted by Ipsos Mori for STV, shows that of all those questioned 52 per cent reject independence, 34 per cent are in favour and 13 per cent are undecided.

Of those indicating that they are absolutely certain to vote, however, 54 per cent intend to vote no to independence (-3 points since February), 36 per cent said they would vote for independence (+4 points) and 10 per cent remain undecided (-1 point).

Meanwhile, in a sign of  the interest now being felt as the referendum draws nearer, 82 per cent of those questioned have said that they are ‘absolutely certain to vote’ – up 4 percentage points since September.

Outlining the battle that the Yes camp now has in the run up to September, Ipsos Mori’s director in Scotland Mark Diffley said:

“The Yes campaign has made some significant progress in persuading the public in recent months. With just over 100 days to go until the referendum they will hope that this represents momentum that will see support continue to grow up to September 18th. However, it is clear that the No campaign retains a healthy lead and, with the referendum fast approaching, there would need to be significant change in opinions if Yes is going to win.”

The findings mirror the latest poll of polls published by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University.

His latest figures are based on one poll by Ipsos MORI, one by ICM, one by Panelbase, one by Survation, one by Progressive Scottish Opinion and one by TNS BMRB and were conducted between 23 April and 1 June. It excludes the don’t knows.

Collectively, they put the yes campaign on 42 per cent and the no camp on 58 per cent.

5 Responses to “New polling: Scots still sceptical about independence”

  1. cynicalhighlander

    UwL first launch 13/05/2013

    There was a relaunch at the backend of last year if memory serves me right so this is a relaunch of a relaunch!

  2. Pro_bono_publico

    With 106 days to go, this poll and others confirm what I have always believed: pro-independence voters are the noisy minority. The Silent Majority of 55-60% will vote to re-affirm the Union in September.

  3. Graeme McDonald

    does that make it a square relaunch?

  4. Mr Happy Man

    I support Scottish Independence because I think that would be a good thing for England. After this happens, the UK can then give Wales (a “nation” no larger than many American states) the independence its kooks desire and return northern Ireland (an area no larger than some western American counties) to Ireland. That way, England will have an electoral environment that is no longer friendly to leftists, and get rid of much of the socialism that Labour put into place 70 years ago. Sure you get rid of the Prince of Wales, by giving away independence but he needs to go anyway (remember, the current Prince of Wales is not just an embarassment to the UK, but to all of humanity as well).
    Putting all that aside, why is there Scottish independence movement anyway? Its not like the UK is oppressing it. Remember, the last person in charge of the UK was elected from Scotland – as were several of his predecessors. In addition, the vast majority of Scots speak English as a native (indeed, only) language, and language is often a primary factor of nationhood. And its not like the Scottish economy will suddenly boom – especially since socialists will complete dominate (not just control) the entire Scottish government. Is this so that the men feel free to go around wearing skirts – er, kilts?
    Sometimes I think that these micro-nations of Europe, as Scotland it trying to create, are nothing more than an attempt by intellectuals to create long-term high-paying jobs for themselves. There really is no benefit for the average Scot, or Catalan, or Breton, or Venetian, to create a new country. Its all in the head of some intellectuals who want the goodies associated with running a country.

  5. Graeme McDonald

    Agreed, I’d just replace the word “intellectuals” by “politicians”

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